Tao Man

Looks Like We're All Communists Now

Obama Mao!

Deploying Cash for a Slight Upward Market Bias

Just curious, what is your definition of the market when nobody wants to jump in?


On Aug 23 09:36 AM axelrod608 wrote:

> Indeed, mixed signals abound, and whatever conclusions one reaches
> one day must be reconsidered the next day in this market.
>
> One difference when using OOM - one's own money - rather than OPM
> - other people;s money - is that losses are personal. Looking at
> how far the market has come and how fast, there IS a correction coming.
> So I am at about 95% cash now. I know I may be missing out on the
> last bit of gain, but I can afford that more than an(other) substantial
> loss.
>
> I don't know when the correction is coming ( best guess 3rd week
> of September) or how big it will be, but I plan on having plenty
> of cash ready to jump back in when nobody else wants to.

Nouriel Roubini and the VIX

Moony, I think the whole point of the article is that the popularity of Roubini and his gloomy view is indicative of the volatility of the market. Platitudes like "Just because he's less popular doesn't make him insignificant" seem to be irrelevant to furthering our understanding of the argument.


On Jun 11 11:27 PM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> Fame is fleeting but it takes a long time for intelligence to wane.
> Just because he's less popular doesn't make him insignificant. Although
> I am not as bearish as he is, the fact that he points out negative
> economic factors that the general media is loathe to touch makes
> him valuable. Of course, that's why seeking alpha is valuable as
> well.
>
> Just because information isn't mainstream doesn't make it less valuable.
> Contrarians would tend to believe that such information is the only
> thing that is valuable. Popular information is often factored into
> the market extremely fast, or so efficient market theorists would
> say.

Should You Invest for a 2nd Half Surge Across the Asset Classes?

Another View - Gary gets out of all these recommendations that don't turn out well for both himself and his clients. I guess that creates a lot of trading and removes the need to have strong convictions?

Stock Treasure at the Bottom of the Ocean?

What a hyped stock. Good luck to all long-term die-hards because you'll clearly need it.

Income ETFs: Higher-Yielding Investing Ideas

Gary, your long-standing positive feelings for PFF haven't translated into profitable advice. Let's hope that the economy turns around faster than expected because that is the real question when talking about high yield. You got it right though, you're not wrong, just way too early.

Roger Wiegand: 'Severe Bull Market' Ahead for Gold

In chaos nobody is going to have any use for gold?

History shows you are exactly wrong. Demand for gold goes up in times of crisis. Are you predicting a crisis? If so then having a store of wealth that is easily identifiable, durable, stable and free from intrinsic price fluctuations is a good idea.

Looking Back at Lehman: Lying, Scapegoating and a General Lack of Accountability

How much of that $350 million does he have in stocks?

Diversification Can Be Everything

Very good stuff Smart ETF - right up to where you exaggerate the time it takes to break even from market tops. Taking dividends and inflation into account is important. Take someone who had invested at the top of the market in 1929. The S&P Composite Price index didn’t return to its old 1929 high until 1954, but the S&P 500 Return Index rebounded to its old 1929 high in 1945, and on an inflation-adjusted total return basis, the S&P composite returned to the 1929 high at the 1937 bull market top.

Finding Meaning in Volatility

When vol is low in the stock market, then it is likely to be wrong to have an overallocation to stocks. What happens next is that vol increases - aka prices decline - and your stock allocation should be increased.

Fed Model Says S&P 500 Undervalued - Does It Matter?

"There is absolutely no compelling reason to believe that stock valuations are in any way correlated with Tresury yields. "

I for one am tired of wading through the comments section for sensible analysis and discussion of the article topics. You've got to be an economic Neanderthal to not understand the reason for the correlation between the forward earnings yield for the S&P 500 and the 10-year treasury bond. This may not be true for "Tresurys".

Fixed Income ETFs: When You Need Lower Risk

I'm in PCY at a purchase price of 25.72 and as of today down 2.98%. So far I'd be better off in a money market fund. I like your arguments though - keep up with ideas on how to navigate this difficult environment. PFF may be attractive now that it is lower than when you recommended it.

How Bad Is the Dollar's Fall?

I never heard of any definition of a bubble that was so left field. A bubble is generally caused by a positive feedback mechanism where individuals observe and adopt the behavior of others. You don't need an increase in supply. In fact, an increase in supply would be a negative feedback response which could, if sufficiently large, collapse an existing bubble.

A Few Reasons to Buy Yen

Thanks for wasting my time reading the comments in the hopes of gaining more insight on FXY.

China: No, But This Time Really Is Different

You certainly do think big. Great comments. Even though you can't bank on the 20 year length of the cycle, your points about the cycle are IMO quite valid.