Very good stuff Smart ETF - right up to where you exaggerate the time it takes to break even from market tops. Taking dividends and inflation into account is important. Take someone who had invested at the top of the market in 1929. The S&P Composite Price index didn’t return to its old 1929 high until 1954, but the S&P 500 Return Index rebounded to its old 1929 high in 1945, and on an inflation-adjusted total return basis, the S&P composite returned to the 1929 high at the 1937 bull market top.
When vol is low in the stock market, then it is likely to be wrong to have an overallocation to stocks. What happens next is that vol increases - aka prices decline - and your stock allocation should be increased.
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