Tao Man

Predictions For Another Bad Hurricane Season

Thanks for the brief section on stock performance in the aftermath of hurricanes. Have you any evidence of the beneficial impact to the companies mentioned or are you just relying on common sense?

I see you are frustrated by the forecasts but you cannot call a forecast for a 50% chance of above normal and 50% chance of near or below normal activity, as was the case for NOAA in 2004, as apocalyptic. In that year it was actual activity that was apocalyptic, not the forecast. Same for 2005. The fact is that we're in a period of elevated hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin and have been since 1995 and you may want to use that information in your stock selection. Year to year variability will still be very large within this AMO cycle.