Robert Sczech

Net Exports of Major Oil Exporters Likely to Fall

Let's assume for the moment that we are not at peak oil yet and that the high oil prices are due excessive financial speculation in oil futures.

Let's assume further that peak oil will happen one day - that is a very reasonable assumption given that the earth can hold only a finite amount of oil.

Then we should be very grateful to the financial speculators since by artificially pushing prices up, they force us to lower our consumption of oil and in this way, direct our efforts to alternative forms of energy. In this way, when the true peak oil arrives (in 2030 by the most optimistic predictions), then we will be well prepared so that the transition to other forms of energy will be easy and relatively painless.

To sum, it would be foolish to prohibit speculation in energy futures. These speculators are in fact beneficial to our long term interest.