Prognostic

39 Comments

    • ON: Sun Oct 12th 12:09 PM
      Commented on:
      Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
      Govt is printing massive quantity of money and thus will cause inflation.

      I don't believe this because this money is being printed and will replace some (not all) of the trillions of dollars of lost wealth. The inflationary effect from this is going to be minimal. This will be one of the reasons why Gold will not go up in value.
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    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 22:31 PM
      Commented on:
      Bill Gross Says 'Jump.' Will the Fed Once Again Say 'How High'?
      Be happy that he wrote the column because he is dead right on the money. Hope the Fed acts and implements his recommendations!
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    • ON: Sat Oct 4th 13:30 PM
      Commented on:
      Bailout Bill Passes; What Happens Now?
      Gabe Borenstein nailed it in his message.

      The autor and the other folks who have posted doomsday messages eher are wrong and are to be found saying the same sort of thing at the end of every economic cycle. As we begin the new cycle these doomsday mavens will be left on the sideline as the economy takes off on yet another up cycle resulting in significant equity and wealth appreciation. I predict that the Dow will have one of the best years in 2009 heralding a stock market boom which over the next 5 years take Dow beyond 15,000. The sectors that will lead the way up in most significant appreciation are Finance and Energy. Some of you may have noticed that there was a bill on tax credits for alternative energy that was approved alongside the monstrous bailout plan. This bill help create an industry that is magnitudes times greater than the Internet. Investors should look at solid plays in alternative energy. Solar is helped more than wind by this tax credit bill.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 17:30 PM
      Commented on:
      E*TRADE Financial: It Was Good to Be Long
      ETFC is a 3-bagger stock by the end of this year.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 17:27 PM
      Commented on:
      LDK Solar: Astounding Growth & Incredible Value
      I expect these solar stocks to shine the remainder of this year:

      LDK, JASO, SPWR, WFC, SOLR and CSUN
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    • ON: Wed Sep 24th 17:26 PM
      Commented on:
      LDK Solar: Astounding Growth & Incredible Value
      Talk about a total disconnect in the market with a stock and its prospects! As LDK gets pushed to new lows I have stood on the sidelines and wondered when this madness will end!

      However I believe this is all about to change. The Senate passed a generous energy bill and it is just a matter of time before the light is shown on the hidden value in LDK. I expect LDK to be trading in the 60's by December.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 10th 17:08 PM
      Commented on:
      Calling a Bottom: It's Time To Party
      Economy stinks.

      Jobs situation dismal.

      Housing continues to decay.

      Credit crunch = less to spending consumer.

      And you say that we have reached the bottom now that Lehman's got crushed?

      Think again.
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    • ON: Mon Sep 8th 09:01 AM
      Commented on:
      While the Solar Sector Bottoms in the Near Term, LDK Solar Stands Out
      Mr.Schulle correctly called the GE stock tumble way before earnings were due and he was castigated by GE shareholders foe his article. He also correctly called a sell-off in Solar shares this past week. He may be right yet again in calling for a resurgence in solar shares this week and beyond led by value-plays like LDK! Let us hope so because I am a long with a fairly big position in LDK.

      A note from market research in the Phoenix, AZ area if you want solar panels installed. Good luck to you if you are a commercial user because in a haste to take advantage of tax credits there has been a mad rush to get solar installed before the credits expire (I believe this month) which supposedly take as much as 30-40% off of the cost of installation. It is somewhat easier to get a residential install (again if you have a good relationship with the solar installer) as residential needs only a few panels. Note -- panels are seriously sold out all over the U.S.! SunPower, a bigger player in the U.S., has informed its distributors it does not have any more panels to supply because of huge demand in Europe.

      U.S. Congress is supposed to pick up the debate on the continuation of the energy policy TODAY. It is quite possible (the most likely scenario) that the congress will vote this week to renew tax credits as Bush as urged them to. If that happens expect another boost to the solar rally. If not there is enough demand to power solars on but I am just not sure how big the U.S. market is and how the investors will react.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 09:51 AM
      Commented on:
      Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings
      Also the move towards renewable energy is irreversible. It is now a global mindsent to walk away from fossil fuels. Every city, state, government has now either a mandate or putting one in place on renewable energy production.

      China/India demand which has been largely ignored in the oil sell-off will come into picture. Also the recent drop in pump prices is causing Americans to increase consumption. In the next few weeks you will see a renewed growth in American consumption and this will end the current oil selloff.
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    • ON: Wed Sep 3rd 09:46 AM
      Commented on:
      Three Reasons Solar Sell-off May Be in Early Innings
      Disagree.

      Crude will not drop to levels you are talking about.

      Goldman has a year end target of $149/barrel for crude. Boone Pickens states categorically that oil will not fall below $100/barrel.

      View article »
    • ON: Tue Sep 2nd 20:20 PM
      Commented on:
      Light the Way with LDK
      User JoeJoe:

      You ask for evidence of cost reduction and data showing ASP for wafers through 2008 and 2009. I don't have all the data but I gathered this by sifting through LDK's investor presentation the link to which is here..

      media.corporate-ir.net...

      The devil is the details! Bear with me here and you will see how we can create some evidence of what could be significant cost reduction and margin improvement at LDK and how soon it might affect LDK earnings. I don't have all the data points here and I have asked some questions as I present the evidence and some readers that know more than others could possibly help put the picture together here.

      #1 Page 5 (Summary Page) is the most important one and gives the highlights of how LDK sees the business. Note the ASP's -- they have been holding steady through past several quarters and have actually gone up in the last Q -- from a low of $2.25 to $2.44 in recent quarter. If this is true it is good news. I think wafer ASP's have been steady to rising because of demand and LDK has been able to pass on some of the cost increase to its customers.

      #2 Page 5 (Summary Page) -- LDK gives an IMPORTANT hint that the first of the two in-house Poly plant will actually produce output in year 2008! The numbers are 150-300 MT in 2008. This is a potential upside to the margin as LDK states in page p23 that the costs per kg of Silicon will range from $22 to $32 as opposed to current industry numbers. I remember reading numbers somewhere on what it costs LDK to get the Poly from the outside and I swear the numbers were anywhere from 60% to 100% higher. If true LDK here will have a HUGE cost advantage over competition. A question to knowledgable readers here -- how much MT of Poly does LDK need in 2008 and 2009 to meet backlog orders? From this data we could calculate margin improvement contribution in 2008 and 2009.

      #3 Page 7 talks about cost improvement efforts. A couple of things going on here -- one, reduction in wafer sizes (done), reduction in wafer breakage loss (ongoing), and three, (which the presentation does not mention but the author of Seeking Alpha article does) is the pact with Qimonda to recycle Qimonda's wafer breakages as raw material for LDK manufacturing.

      #4 Page 7 is heartening in that LDK continues to invest in technology (IP - Intellectual Property) to incease efficiencies while reducing costs.Look at the higher end wafers and the efficiencies they think they can get. If true this would be higher than efficiency leader SPWR's efficiences.

      #5 The most important takeaway points are with respect to the construction of the two Poly plants which the analysts have been skeptical about. Two things you can gather from here -- Plant #1 will produce in Q3 and Q4 of 2008. Plant #5 will be up sometime in 2009. Look at the schedule of completed activities for plant #2 in Page 17. Looks good!
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    • ON: Mon Sep 1st 19:18 PM
      Commented on:
      Light the Way with LDK
      User JoeJoe makes an interesting point that LDK's wafer costs are too high and the average ASP has to drop and therefore to make money LDK has to cut its costs down quite dramatically. If that is true WHAT I DON'T UNDERSTAND is how did LDK pre-sell all their inventory for 2008 and 2009 and sold 50% of 2010 and every day it seems like there is a new company signing yet another contract with LDK for wafers. On top of all this LDK raised guidance not lowered it and has issued a forward looking GM points to incremental improvement (Author of this article is far more bullish on GM than LDK). The fear the marketplace has had is a decrease in GM and even signs of stabilizing GM will be seen as a plus.

      User JoeJoe -- something is not kosher here. You can't pre-sell inventory and sign more customers on every day if you are not price competitive. What gives Mr. JoeJoe? All these companies that are signing contracts with LDK (this includes BP, GE, Sharp and recently Hyundai) are all part of a giant consipracy.Is that your theory?
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    • ON: Mon Sep 1st 13:18 PM
      Commented on:
      Light the Way with LDK
      This article is great and so are the followup comments.

      In a negative section of the TSC review of LDK they note both the margin erosion and poor debt management and a less-than-desirable quick ratio (which indicates a setupwhere short term cash crunch may happen). I am not worried about margin erosion given the new plants that will soon come online (Read article) but I am worried about short term cash management. Does LDK have all the cash it needs to expand, supply its many many customers with many many contracts? If it needs capital would LDK get it and if so the fact that is seeking capital look negative on the stock front?


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    • ON: Tue Aug 26th 16:51 PM
      Commented on:
      Big Lots: Good Report, Adverse Reaction
      This is very discouraging. I lost my behind in MA wherein even though MA came out with stellar results, raised guidance, the stock got hammered. The same with PriceLine where beat the Q and raised guidance and the stock got hammered. Apparently, they only grew 80% and not 100% in their European arm! It seems the only way to make money in this market is to buy and hold good stocks and hope that they will do well in the long run and get recognized for their merits.
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    • ON: Sat Aug 9th 17:33 PM
      Commented on:
      Why Visa Got Spanked
      Everyone here agrees V is a long term winner. The debate is about the short term. The short term is continuously influenced by a number of macro economic variables such as the price of oil, leading economic growth indicators, inflation, the credit and housing situation, dollar's strength or weakness, etc. V more than others is influenced by these variables. Over the last several days a lot of these macro indicators have changed to the upside. What this means is that V Winner may turn out to be right even though he would off in his timeframe by a bit.

      If the macro economic variables maintain their positive stride we could still see V at a hundred dollar by the end of this year.
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