InvestBaboo

10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas

Very good and compelling answers! The charts however confirm a Sell signal on the daily charts as of today. A reversal generally takes several days to take place so ATPG may have a little ways to go down and could present a better buying opportunity. The charts do reverse and if they do I will let the readers know.

10 Upcoming Catalysts for ATP Oil and Gas

Devon:

This is one of the best researched articles I have read on SeekingAlpha. Furthermore, you have replied to every post where a question was asked without taking offence.

I spotted ATPG when it registered a Buy signal on the chart in early May. I am a chart reader first and do fundamental analysis next. I searched SeekingAlpha and came across your article and loved the story. The charts said YES and your fundamental analysis said YES. Another enticing factor was that this was once a fifty dollar stock (!) and it stands to reason that if someone paid fifty bucks for it once they will remember it and support the stock once it starts showing upwards momentum.

I would really like to double down or triple down on ATPG however a couple of things bother me. Perhaps, you can answer?

#1 Throughout your article and in the posts thereafter you seemed to firmly believe that they would not dilute. It was so strongly against their interests given the CEO and CFO's significant stake in the company. BUT THEY DID IT! Instead of reevaluating your position and checking facts againt you have forgiven them too easily. If the story is this good and if the stock price potential is so high would you not think that they would leave no stone unturned to not dilute? In fact, you firmly believed that they had other ways to get the money they needed. How come they still diluted? Is there something you do not know and the big money knows that caused management to do this?

#2 On June 15, 2009 the ATPG daily charts registerd a Sell signal. Ever since then this equity has headed south. Weekly charts are perhaps a day or two away from registering a sell signal. A Sell on the weekly charts if it happens almost certainly means this stock is headed down to the $5 range. What I am saying here is irrespective of the fundamentals you detail big money is running from the stock fast and furiously.

#3 I fell for a similar stock on SeekingAlpha - a company named LDK Solar which was touted by many authors on SeekingAlpha as $120 stock that was misunderstood and was stuck in the $40 range. Same kind of analysis that you provided accompanies these articles to rationalize why this was a $120-plus stock. This company was one of the largest producers of polysilicon on the planet, had many many delivery agreements, was building a new generation plant that would give them even lower cost and so on and on. Almost every day the company issued press releases touting yet another delivery agreement with yet another brand name company. They did have to acquire a lot of debt to bring their new plant online much like ATPG but the authors were confident the company could easily handle the debt load. For some mysterious reason the stock was going down every day. Instead of going to $120 in 6 months the stock went to single digits! What went wrong? Well, it turns out that the company lied about their new plant and when it would come online. They lied about Polysilicon price points which went south quite drastically. Instead of upbeat quarter they announced massively disappointing earnings and they stock got hammered. And when they went ahead and did a surprising dilution event (much like ATPG) the backers who balked at first found it easy to forgive the company and came up with rationale that justifed the diluation. Much like ATPG! And most importantly -- the Street had no faith in the management and that was one of the reasons why they did not trust anything the managemeng said and eventually the Street was proven right. So if things are this good and the management is telling the Street all the information you seemed to have acquired from them yet the stock is headed south -- is this because the Street distrusts the management?

Your perspective much appreciated.

ATP Oil & Gas: Value After a Stock and Commodity Collapse

Wow, Devon! What an excellent analysis?!

I picked ATPG for my Slumdog Millionaire portfolio. I picked ATPG at a price of $4.32. I missed the buy on this one at at around the 3.5 level just because I wasn't watching it on my radar screen. Since then it has broken through 3 major resistance levels and looks solid on the Daily charts. Weekly charts are still to show a buy but if it keeps the momentum up that is just a matter of time. 52 week high appears to be in the 48 plus range and that is my target for this stock in the Slumdog Millionaire portfolio.

The point -- using charts and technical analysis -- I saved myself a whole deal of extensive research work like you did and yet got in at a very good price. But I do feel even better about my position thanks to your thorugh research and analysis. Keep up the good work!

Can a Stock Market Meltdown Happen from Here?

So now we have to go find a fruitcake in Germany to tell us the the U.S. markets are going down? Seriously, this is outsourcing gone to the extreme! I did a little lookup on Google but unfortunately no stellar record of that sort turned up or maybe it is that I don't understand German and can't read a record right.

All I found was that this fruitcake has been a Goldbug for years -- you know the sort that thinks that civilized world is coming to an end and guns and ammunition and a cabin up in the woods with gold buried in the backyard is the safest course of action for all to follow. Or do I really have this down all wrong?

Dear author (or another worldly SeekingAlpha reader), could you please publish the Fruitcake's Munich fund's performance just for the record? If he truly called the financial meltdown AND THEN this recent rally almost precisely plus or minus a few points on the S&P and now an impending immense meltdown then this genius is probably on his way to loads of personal wealth and a fund track record that will put all money managers to shame.