Paul Adal

17 Comments

    • Why Airline Stocks Are So Often Bad Investments [view article]
      The RASM Surge; Estimates Improved
      Despite anticipated demand softness, industry RASM is expected to surge
      starting in September, lifting estimates along the way. While airline shares tend
      to seasonally find traction starting in November or December, we suggest
      positions instead be established before the release of September demand data.
      • All Eyes on RASM – With fuel prices at manageable levels, demand trends
      are expected to retake center stage. Starting in September, we expect system
      mainline RASM to exceed 10%, remaining there until well into 2009.
      • We Are Boosting Our RASM Estimates – On an ATA basis, our Q3
      system mainline 5% rises to 7%, Q4 10% to 11%, and 2009 8% to 9.5%.
      • Our Forecasts Are Actually Conservative – Should August~December
      sequential trends mirror those of 2007, Q4 RASM would exceed 15%. But
      we’re modeling just 11%, reflective of anticipated demand softness. Put
      differently, supply is exiting the industry at a far greater rate than
      demand has ever softened, ex-9/11.
      • Our 2009 Forecast Is Similarly Diffident, Yet Shares Look Cheap – On
      an ATA basis, 2008 RASM is expected +7% on a 2% decline in capacity. For
      2009, we anticipate 9.5% RASM on a 6% decline in capacity. Yet despite
      this implied demand erosion, shares in many names are trading at or below
      5x EV/EBITDAR.       Sep 05 02:53 AM
    • Why Airline Stocks Are So Often Bad Investments [view article]
      AIRLINES ARE NOW GREAT INVESTMENTS.....tight capacity, lower fuel cost, and additional charges will generate lots of free cash flow. Sep 04 06:45 PM
    • Monster Rally Produces Pricey Valuation for Fuel Systems Solutions [view article]
      FSYS gowth will not come from the consumer segment...There is ample growth to come from munincipal transport....transform... most govt vehicles to natural gas fuel will save them a lot of money considering that they will be paying the equivalent of $1.00/gal Aug 11 03:38 AM
    • Monster Rally Produces Pricey Valuation for Fuel Systems Solutions [view article]
      Based on my calculation FSYS is ONLY trading at 8x next yr cashflow when it should be trading at 12x....I see another 50% upside from here...I dont believe there is any need to worry about FSYS doing a secondary due to the fact that they are generating alot of cash....It doesnt matter that oil prices are down...its more an enviromental factor and economics at this point.... Aug 10 11:21 AM
    • Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems [view article]
      Dont be fooled...we have an ample supply of natural gas here in the US and NA...Its easy for XOM CVX COP to put a nat gas outfit in all their stations...for 3k to convert your current vehicle to nat gas..its worth it....FSYS has a chance win big or be bought..I think the latter will happen... Jul 27 04:11 PM
    • Profiting from the Pickens Plan: FAN, Clean Fuels, Fuel Systems [view article]
      FSYS should benefit from the following including Picken Plan:

      A Visible Path To $600 Million In Revenue And $2.40 In EPS
      Even Without U.S. Adoption – With the leading market position, a
      large number of key OEM and distributor relationships, and a big
      macro tailwind, we believe Fuel Systems can become a $600 million
      revenue company generating $78+ million of EBITDA and EPS of
      roughly $2.40 even without U.S. adoption.


      CALIFORNIA BALLOT INITIATIVE COULD BE A CATALYST
      In addition to overall favorable macro conditions for alternative fuels, we
      think a pending ballot initiative in California could be a significant catalyst
      for alternative fueled vehicles and would benefit Fuel Systems. The
      California Renewable Energy Clean Alternative Fuel Act will be on the
      November 2008 ballot and would invest $5 billion in projects and incentive
      programs to promote renewable energy and alternative fueled vehicles. This
      initiative would allocate $2.9 billion (58% of the total) to cash incentives for
      the purchase alternative fueled vehicles, as detailed in figure 6, and $550
      million to develop and qualify alternative fueled vehicles.

      Jul 25 05:30 PM
    • 2 Ways to Invest in Pickens’ Wind Power Plan [view article]
      I think FSYS will bebefit greatly from Pickens plan.

      The Holy Grail: U.S. Adoption Of Natural Gas Fueled Vehicles
      – The number of gaseous fueled vehicles has been growing at a 23%
      rate since 2000, but it’s not obvious to U.S. investors because the
      growth has been almost entirely outside of this country. However,
      we believe the U.S. is now at the tipping point of increased adoption
      of gaseous fueled vehicles driven by high oil prices, political desires
      for a domestic energy solution, and increasingly stringent worldwide
      emission standards. We believe a number of catalysts are on the
      horizon to spur the U.S. market, the largest being a ballot initiative
      this November in California that would create a $2.9 billion fund to
      provide incentives for alternative fueled vehicles.       Jul 09 11:54 PM
    • Fuel Systems Solutions: Time to Take Profits [view article]
      The Holy Grail: U.S. Adoption Of Natural Gas Fueled Vehicles
      – The number of gaseous fueled vehicles has been growing at a 23%
      rate since 2000, but it’s not obvious to U.S. investors because the
      growth has been almost entirely outside of this country. However,
      we believe the U.S. is now at the tipping point of increased adoption
      of gaseous fueled vehicles driven by high oil prices, political desires
      for a domestic energy solution, and increasingly stringent worldwide
      emission standards. We believe a number of catalysts are on the
      horizon to spur the U.S. market, the largest being a ballot initiative
      this November in California that would create a $2.9 billion fund to
      provide incentives for alternative fueled vehicles.       Jul 09 11:50 PM
    • General Discussion on FSYS
      FSYS appears to be in the sweetspot of a way end our dependence on foreign oil...Since most of the oil we need go into our cars trucks and airplanes and buses....Two reports out today should lead to more investors flocking to this stock( by the way, this is right up T. Boone Pickens plans).....

      Craig-Hallum excerpts:
      The Holy Grail: U.S. Adoption Of Natural Gas Fueled Vehicles
      – The number of gaseous fueled vehicles has been growing at a 23%
      rate since 2000, but it’s not obvious to U.S. investors because the
      growth has been almost entirely outside of this country. However,
      we believe the U.S. is now at the tipping point of increased adoption
      of gaseous fueled vehicles driven by high oil prices, political desires
      for a domestic energy solution, and increasingly stringent worldwide
      emission standards. We believe a number of catalysts are on the
      horizon to spur the U.S. market, the largest being a ballot initiative
      this November in California that would create a $2.9 billion fund to
      provide incentives for alternative fueled vehicles.



      Jul 09 09:28 PM
    • Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life [view article]
      its all short covering last week.....will need to see if they hold Mar 30 05:53 PM
    • Beware of the Solar Stock Fad [view article]
      Rediculous!!!!! Solar Energy has all the essence to be a great industry...First, Oil is 100/bbl..$450B comes out of our economy going into the hands of Middle East Oil "rapist" and possible terrorists...the money in turn is heading back our way "investing" in some ofour biggest companies which may influence policies detremental to our freedom in the long run....
      Secondly, Solar energy is abundant energy for the next 2 million years and companies that can capture this energy efficiently will be worth 10x XOM and create a vast new lifesyle and industry that will enhance our productivity and heath for a very long time...and Finally, I believe Solar energy is the only way out of our cuurent deteirotating enviromental catastrophe.....

      As I understand, Silicon Valley is now heavily investing in the future of Solar Energy with the idea that solar efficiency and now being mirrored into Moore's Law....

      Fact is fact, my utility and gasoline bills continue to go up and up..we need to do something and something big....sooner rather than later       Feb 24 12:08 PM
    • The Effect of Internet Video: Market or Investor Discontinuity? [view article]
      This is clearly one of the best perspective on the comming internet tsunami ;ack of bandwith. I just wish for some investment ideas regarding this theme...yes LVLT seems to be prevalent but there must be more. Mar 03 10:41 PM
    • BSQUARE Could Fall Further (BSQR) [view article]
      Would like to see what the author thinks of BSQR now? Feb 15 07:10 PM
    • It's NetSol Technologies' Time to Shine [view article]
      2007 Financial Results
      CALABASAS, CA -- (MARKET WIRE) -- 02/12/07 --
      NetSol Technologies Inc. ("NetSol") (NASDAQ: NTWK), a multinational provider
      of enterprise software and IT services to the financial services industry,
      today announced financial results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007,
      ending December 31, 2006.
      Second Quarter FY 2007 Consolidated Financial Highlights
      -- Revenues increased 60% to $7.2 million
      -- Operating income rose 36% to $375 thousand
      -- GAAP EPS was ($0.27) due to one-time, non-cash charge of $4.3 million
      relating to the financing for the acquisition of McCue Systems
      -- EBITDA was $527 thousand, or $0.03 per basic and diluted share,
      excluding the one-time non-cash charge
      -- Pro forma EPS was ($0.02) per basic and diluted share, excluding the
      one-time non-cash charge

      NetSol Technologies, Inc. reported consolidated revenues of $7.2 millionfor
      the second quarter of fiscal year 2007, a 60% increase compared to the $4.5
      million in revenues reported for the same period in fiscal year 2006.
      Consolidated gross profit for the second quarter was approximately $3.6
      million, or 50%.
      Net loss for the second quarter of fiscal year 2007 was approximately $4.6
      million, or a loss of $0.27 per basic and diluted earnings per share,
      whichcompares to net income of $125 thousand, or $0.01 per basic and diluted
      earnings per share, reported in the second quarter of fiscal year 2006. The
      Company recorded a one-time, non-cash charge of $4.3 million relating to the
      financing for the acquisition of McCue Systems in June 2006. Excluding this
      one-time charge, NetSol would have reported EBITDA of $527 thousand, or $0.03
      per basic and diluted share, and a net loss of $375 thousand, or a loss of
      $0.02 per basic and diluted share, for the second quarter of fiscal 2007.
      Najeeb Ghauri, chairman and CEO, commented, "NetSol recorded strong
      revenuegrowth in the second quarter of fiscal 2007, driven by our ability to
      closecontracts in the Asia Pacific and European markets. We also continued to
      make progress in the North American market, as the integration of McCue Systems
      proceeds according to plan. In addition, we are seeing strong growth in the
      Pakistan market, as evidenced by several, important non-traditional NetSol
      projects initiated with both the federal and Punjab governments.
      "Our second quarter results also reflect a one-time, non-cash charge relating
      to the acquisition of McCue Systems in June 2006. With this charge, all costs
      relating to that acquisition are expensed and behind us, so we may now move
      forward aggressively in the North American market. We expect to have that
      division substantially integrated into the NetSol organization and leveraging
      our superior offshore capabilities by the end of this fiscal year."
      Mr. Ghauri concluded, "Historically, NetSol posts its strongest results in the
      second half of the fiscal year. Our pipeline of orders for commercial finance
      products, particularly in the Chinese market and in Europe, indicate that this
      trend will continue. Moreover, our pipeline of business in Pakistan is
      stronger than ever. As a result, we continue to believe we can deliver
      revenues of approximately $30 million and improved operating profitability for
      fiscal year 2007."
      Second Quarter Business Highlights
      Asia-Pacific (APAC) Division
      -- Signed two new multi-million dollar contracts for LeaseSoft with
      global, blue chip brand names in the Captive Finance sector - one in
      Australia, the other in China;
      -- Continued to expand pipe line of opportunities in Australia, Thailand,
      New Zealand and China; and
      -- Expanded client and market reach beyond traditional leasing market
      into local Pakistan market;
      -- Successful implementation of Motor Transport Management Information
      System (or MTMIS) in Lahore, with an additional 28 districts to go live by
      the end of calendar year 2007.

      Europe/Middle East (EMEA) Division-- Completed major client projects on time
      and on budget to deliver
      record UK service revenue - one significant project was with Investec Asset
      Finance;
      -- Introduced new products to support front and middle office operations
      of leasing companies, providing end-to-end contract management - three
      system implementations are currently scheduled or in progress, with
      significant interest generated; and
      -- Recorded the first sale of the division's newest software offering,
      LeaseSoft Evolve, to broker Kennet Equipment Leasing for the management of
      its own equipment leasing portfolio.

      North America Division-- Delivered LeasePak 6.0, the largest and most
      comprehensive release of
      the product to date - receiving excellent customer response and reviews;
      -- Initiated rollout of the IT Services line of business to the US
      commercial finance technology sector, and
      -- Integration of McCue Systems into NetSol Technologies is on track and
      progressing well - with continued success in the leveraging of offshore
      resources, improved internal resource utilization and effective marketing
      efforts.       Feb 12 05:23 PM
    • Ciphergen: Partnering with the Big Boys [view article]
      CIPH getting hit hard today...what gives?? Feb 02 01:12 PM
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