ValueInvestor

Agricultural Commodities a Great Opportunity - Marc Faber

Quite true Jordan.

Also, we now have more advanced green houses that are able to produce crops during winter months. This isn't necessarily true for agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, etc but its certainly true for fruits and vegetables.

The one thing thats quite scary though, is that we haven't had a major crop disaster in quite a while. If a drought hits any major producing country we could have really high prices due to the thin ending stocks for most of these commodities.

Ag Roundup: Corn, Wheat, Soybeans

"The broad-based S&P GSCI commodity index is down nearly 8% over the same time frame."

There's nothing broad about the GSCI. Its 79% energy. If you want a broad index quote the RJ CRB Index or the S&P CI.

Peak Oil as a Function of Earth's Volume

Not likely. While we find new ways to produce these commodities, we also find new ways to search for them. I'm sure there are several elephants we haven't found yet. Heck, Brazil found a few giants offshore in the last 2 years also.


On Apr 28 01:43 PM Chris Uhlir wrote:
> So that was the last big reserve we will ever find!?

Peak Oil as a Function of Earth's Volume

Cetin, open your eyes. Your living in some kind of fantasy world.

Shale isn't in production in a meaningful way yet, nuclear power plants take years to build, and ethanol is a proven joke. There's no way you could produce enough ethanol to offset the gasoline consumption without using the entire USA's corn crop which would mean disaster for food and livestock producers.

So in the 5-10 years it takes to produce all your nuclear plants there could very well be an energy shock.

Besides, how did we get into the last energy debacle? Why didn't your nuclear, ethanol and shale help us out then?

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (4/23/09)

These charts mean nothing.

Three Soft Commodities Poised to Rally: Orange Juice, Sugar, and Cotton

While most of the news is on oil and gold, the biggest potential profits are in the less known "softs" like your article points out.

Some commodities are trading near all time inflation adjusted lows and everyone is still jumping on the gold bandwagon thinking its cheap at $950. If anything is gonna get a boost from inflation it will be the softs as the combination of high inflation and unprofitable producers will diminish supply raising prices.

Soft Commodities ETF: DBA Forging a Bottom?

This is hardly a soft commodity ETF. Its mainly a grain/agricultural ETF.

The "softs" consist of sugar, cocoa, coffee, cotton, lumber and orange juice. Having only 1 of the 4 components of the ETF in the soft category doesn't make it a soft ETF. Whats next, are you going to call the GSCI a grain index when its 75% energies?

The Outlook for Corn

Surprise, Surprise, the analysts were wrong.

"For corn, the average of all analysts' estimates is 11.982 billion bushels, according to Dow Jones Newswires, in a range of 11.880 billion to 12.078 billion. Only four of the fourteen analysts surveyed by Dow Jones see corn at or above 12 billion bushels."

Well seeing how the USDA report pegged corn at 12.101 billion bushels it seems that all 14 analysts were wrong.

Bespoke's Commodity Snapshot (9/2/08)

Orange Juice and Sugar are my bets to go up significantly in the next year or so.

As Corn Prices Shoot Up, Ethanol Margins Turn Negative

There are essentially limitless ways to produce ethanol. Another one is Jatropha. Its a weed, so it needs very little water, can grow in harsh conditions and its seeds produces a lot of oil relative to other crops.

As Corn Prices Shoot Up, Ethanol Margins Turn Negative

Another reason why corn ethanol should be abolished. Sugar ethanol is so much more efficient, cost effective and enviro friendly.

Its too bad the corn lobby in this country is so strong. Thats why they just gave an extra $20 billion is subsidies to farmers in the latest farm bill even though agricultural prices are threw the roof. Way to go Washington.