beezlebub

Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning

hey todd,

that chart is ugly, where is it from?

thx for the post

Darden Restaurants, Dine Equity: A Look at 2 Value Plays

couldn't agree more on dri.... not so sure about din, have to do more work on it

Netflix: The Beat Goes On

not a shorter on nflx, an avoider,,,,,my guess is that many people fear, correctly imo, that when bbi's marketing starts rolling, nflx growth declines...bbi offers more than than nflx can

i do not hope nflx goes down, i do think it does though.... and before someone spouts off about nflx downloads...bbi's digital library is bigger, it was acquired last year at a fraction of what it cost nflx to build its own....and its partnership w/ xbox can be replicated by bbi with sony or nintendo (and possibly even w/ msft, there is much speculation that nflx's deal was not exclusive) and one of them may very well be unveiled soon...also a set-top box is soon to be rolled by bbi...so these first moves (by a mere q or 2), will soon go away

in the vein that i am an nflx avoider, i am long bbi,,,,not huge but long nonetheless... we'll see where things sit by year-end into 1q09...i do like hearing the contrary view points...again, we'll see but i have not heard anything remotely convincing me that i should switch from long bbi to long nflx

Netflix: The Beat Goes On

nflx is back in the teens by year end as bbi ramps up it marketing...bbi has held off for a couple of quarters now....

Blockbuster - Profiting More Than the Profiteers

i failed to note, but you may have guessed, i am long bbi

Blockbuster - Profiting More Than the Profiteers

debt load has been declining rapidly...and will continue to do so, as cash generation heads to paying down debt....as for catalysts, near term spark off the current valuation won't take much....2H08 dvd rental slate is strong, cost cutting is in place, DVD's are a cheap entertainment option in a recessionary environment, roll-out of movie-link, rationalized pricing structure should be effective very soon...there are a host of things that get the stock moving,,,as for longer term...that is a much murkier call to make, and explains keyes attempt at cc....
not sure what 'make this thing whole again' means, but i do think the stock moves up sharply off its current levels, not to 20....but could reach mid single digits...nice % change

Blockbuster - Profiting More Than the Profiteers

wholeheartedly agree.... in a tough consumer environment, dvd's offer the cheapest form of entertainment (or close to it)..... as an aside, i get highly amused at the ranting of many others that bbi is dead due to its lack of presence in the download segment....BBI has the largest library of digitized movies, thx to the cheap acquistion of movie-link last year...this channel will be unveiled in the very near term...along with this unveiling, bbi will restart its marketing efforts.... i see nothing but upward momentum for the stock as these this efforts gain traction. it seems that as bbi slowed its marketing spend to focus on profitable enhancements to the catagory killing 'total access' product...investors seemed to forget how formidable bbi is in this market segment. though i will add the nflx has not forgotten, each of the last couple of earnings call they have tempered outlooks with comments like 'it depends on bbi's marketing effort' (paraphrased)... and finally, nflx's partnering with mfst's xbox for movies is not surprising, hastings (the ceo) sits on msft's board (how he got that position is beyond me)...it seems likely that bbi will partner w/ sony's playstation ,,,a tit-for-tat..though it remains unsaid if either partnering is exclusive...at any rate, enuff ranting from me...needless to restate, i agree with your assertions....

Denny's Q1 Earnings Strong; Awaiting Cash Flow Results

i too am long denn,,,,i like the shift toward a franchisee system...more stability in the longer term and debt reduction to lower interest payments in the near term....the traffic trends are what i watch,,,,but as you point out,,,patience is required for this name. i like it over the next 12 to 24 months...perhaps sooner....done well thus far with an avg cost of 3.05....

McDonalds Is a Real Estate Company

there is nothing new here, regurgitation of old facts is not useful in my estimation. while mcreit has loooooong been discussed, management has been strongly resistent to seperating the real estate from the restaurant units while also creating a third entity....brand management company (think coke). but again, this, like the post, is not new news.

Morton's and Ruth's Chris: Eat a Steak, Take a Stake for Juicy Profits

to start, i am long ruth's and am looking to enter mrt. in the current environment high end consumer discretionary names, or extra highly discretionary names, tend to perform weakly....nothing surprising about ruth and mrt's results. i am looking forward to improving results, a 'when' not 'if' and the accompanying equity returns. when the tide shows signs of shifting, rotation into names like ruth and mrt will occur. i do find it amusing reading speculation that these stocks (and others) are a waste of time. patience may be required (a year or so, not a decade) and it should be well rewarded.
ruths purchase of the seafood chain, perhaps ill- timed (perhaps not) was somnewhat of a surpise. but cost reductions (mostly back office in this case) provide some offset to the meaningfull increases in commodity costs. (i have to add that this is not my though, but i agree with dri's ceo as he recently characterized his own foray into the beef sector). Bottom line, i see no reason why the company should not perform exceptionally well from an equity standpoint, it has been pointed out, they generate cash even in these weak times. as for a takeover, could happen, but ruth's leverage is an obstacle here.

Blockbuster: Driving Off a Cliff?

there is no real property to divest...CC and BBI are both nearly completely leased.....it will cost BBI a a good chunk of change to break CC leases (CC has been trying to do this to no avail)....would you drive to the local shopping plaza, battling traffic etc along the way to rent a movie because the downtown BBI store was shuttered because its within 5 miles of an existing CC store? ideally the deal falls through....


On Apr 14 05:09 PM buyforeclosures wrote:

> First of all this isn't Residential real estate. Commercial real
> estate is actually up this year.However, that being said I am not
> sure if this is going to work out or not...but kudos to BB for showing
> some juevos and trying to get this stock to break out of the doldrums.
> Sure its down 12% today but 2 years from now they will look like
> geniuses or poster boys for the Motley fools. I think they can always
> divest the real property and wont lose a lot on that aspect of it.