Coelacanth's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/177033/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/97968-historic-strength-for-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-270364 270364 Wed, 01 Oct 2008 09:49:35 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94977-sell-the-u-s-dollar-into-strength?source=feed#comment-251803 251803
I don't day trade....when I enter the market it's typically anywhere from a couple of weeks to a couple of months so I can take advantage of geo-political & macro-economic trends.

Can't believe I'm getting caught up in this conversation but, no guys, it's not lost on me that our beloved stars & stripes has systemic financial structural problems that, if not dealth with, will weigh on our currency long-term. That said I'm not an "extreme doom & gloomer" and believe Warren Buffet when he says "Don't bet against America long-term".

Like Fabian Hug says....."mess for mess, I prefer America's"

Be well gentleman.]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 13:43:05 -0400
I don't day trade....when I enter the market it's typically anywhere from a couple of weeks to a couple of months so I can take advantage of geo-political & macro-economic trends.

Can't believe I'm getting caught up in this conversation but, no guys, it's not lost on me that our beloved stars & stripes has systemic financial structural problems that, if not dealth with, will weigh on our currency long-term. That said I'm not an "extreme doom & gloomer" and believe Warren Buffet when he says "Don't bet against America long-term".

Like Fabian Hug says....."mess for mess, I prefer America's"

Be well gentleman.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94977-sell-the-u-s-dollar-into-strength?source=feed#comment-251614 251614
I could easily refute most if not all of what Mr. James Conrad "Phd" (that still cracks me up....I love typing that. LOL) says.

If you look at some of my past comments, you'll see I've expanded on my opinions on several occasions and have been spot on in many cases. That I haven't done that here only means I've been too busy trading. It's revealing that didn't occur to either of you

It's very instructive for someone like me to read what the erstwhile James Conrad Phd has to say week after week.....and then see the markets do the exact opposite of what he says they'll do....week after week.

I'm actually quite grateful.....he's currently one of my best contrarian indicators. I truly hope he continues posting for a while.


]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 11:08:29 -0400
I could easily refute most if not all of what Mr. James Conrad "Phd" (that still cracks me up....I love typing that. LOL) says.

If you look at some of my past comments, you'll see I've expanded on my opinions on several occasions and have been spot on in many cases. That I haven't done that here only means I've been too busy trading. It's revealing that didn't occur to either of you

It's very instructive for someone like me to read what the erstwhile James Conrad Phd has to say week after week.....and then see the markets do the exact opposite of what he says they'll do....week after week.

I'm actually quite grateful.....he's currently one of my best contrarian indicators. I truly hope he continues posting for a while.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94977-sell-the-u-s-dollar-into-strength?source=feed#comment-251280 251280
By doing the exact opposite of what you're saying I've profited by buying dollars on dips and selling almost everything else. Do we have systemic structural financial problems that if not fixed will weigh on the dollar long term if not fixed? Sure.

With Gold bugs currently puking their guts out seeing their beloved ore hovering around $750.00 an oz. after seeing it above $1000.00 an oz. only 7 months ago, it's not surprising Mr. Conrad "Phd" (who has an "exclusive" newletter one is only privvy to if their recommened to him....LOL) would be feeling some frustration.

That you would minimize the problems in the U.K. & Europe makes it painfully clear you don't trade currencies and are simply making a sojourn in to a subject matter you know less about than you think.]]> Thu, 11 Sep 2008 06:48:00 -0400
By doing the exact opposite of what you're saying I've profited by buying dollars on dips and selling almost everything else. Do we have systemic structural financial problems that if not fixed will weigh on the dollar long term if not fixed? Sure.

With Gold bugs currently puking their guts out seeing their beloved ore hovering around $750.00 an oz. after seeing it above $1000.00 an oz. only 7 months ago, it's not surprising Mr. Conrad "Phd" (who has an "exclusive" newletter one is only privvy to if their recommened to him....LOL) would be feeling some frustration.

That you would minimize the problems in the U.K. & Europe makes it painfully clear you don't trade currencies and are simply making a sojourn in to a subject matter you know less about than you think.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94314-the-great-dollar-pump-of-2008-a-doomed-central-bank-intervention?source=feed#comment-248558 248558
EUR/USD: Buy dollars in to weakness.

GBP/USD: Sell Cable in to strength.

Mission Accomplished.]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 13:30:59 -0400
EUR/USD: Buy dollars in to weakness.

GBP/USD: Sell Cable in to strength.

Mission Accomplished.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93929-will-august-non-farm-payrolls-top-100k?source=feed#comment-245949 245949 Fri, 05 Sep 2008 01:58:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93746-u-s-dollar-golden-cross?source=feed#comment-244993 244993
Good work Bespoke Investments! Your technical indicator is a positive sign. After seeing many candlestick "hammers" & "shooting stars" on USD daily charts last night it wouldn't surprise me to see an interim dollar correction coming. After this week I'll probably step aside a few days as nothing would make me happier than getting long dollars in to temporary weakness.

]]> Wed, 03 Sep 2008 20:24:15 -0400
Good work Bespoke Investments! Your technical indicator is a positive sign. After seeing many candlestick "hammers" & "shooting stars" on USD daily charts last night it wouldn't surprise me to see an interim dollar correction coming. After this week I'll probably step aside a few days as nothing would make me happier than getting long dollars in to temporary weakness.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93608-tuesday-s-currencies-wrap-dollar-strengthens?source=feed#comment-244199 244199
Prime Minister Fukuda surprised everyone by stepping down yesterday. One of his possible successors,Taro Aso, isn't a reformer but rather thought of as someone who might take Japan back to it's big state spending ways.

On the surface this would appear to be hugely yen negative. In the short to medium term I have to weigh that against how much worse off some other majors are. In particular I favor yen over euro.]]> Tue, 02 Sep 2008 22:27:12 -0400
Prime Minister Fukuda surprised everyone by stepping down yesterday. One of his possible successors,Taro Aso, isn't a reformer but rather thought of as someone who might take Japan back to it's big state spending ways.

On the surface this would appear to be hugely yen negative. In the short to medium term I have to weigh that against how much worse off some other majors are. In particular I favor yen over euro.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93024-axel-weber-rescues-the-euro?source=feed#comment-241021 241021
That said, I think people are dreaming if they think the ECB is going to hike rates again. The EU has made no bones about their desire to see a weaker euro to help their exporters. That said, central bankers don't like to see their currencies fall in to death spirals (like USD earlier this year) and I suspect Papademos's jawboning the other day was more an attempt to make sure the depreciation of the euro is more orderly rather than sudden. It's also telling he got on the wires just after German CPI showed clear inflation easing in August.

Another ominous sign is the German unemployment read for August ballooned way above consensus (-10,000 consensus vs. -40,000.00 actual).

The divergence between ECB rhetoric and economic reality on the ground is widening.


]]> Thu, 28 Aug 2008 14:10:47 -0400
That said, I think people are dreaming if they think the ECB is going to hike rates again. The EU has made no bones about their desire to see a weaker euro to help their exporters. That said, central bankers don't like to see their currencies fall in to death spirals (like USD earlier this year) and I suspect Papademos's jawboning the other day was more an attempt to make sure the depreciation of the euro is more orderly rather than sudden. It's also telling he got on the wires just after German CPI showed clear inflation easing in August.

Another ominous sign is the German unemployment read for August ballooned way above consensus (-10,000 consensus vs. -40,000.00 actual).

The divergence between ECB rhetoric and economic reality on the ground is widening.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92871-will-the-european-central-bank-cut-rates-its-anybody-s-guess?source=feed#comment-240256 240256
At the same time Papademos sounded the cauldron on inflation again this morning....German August reads for CPI came in well below consensus....suggestin... lower oil prices are easing some inflationary pressures. My take is that as growth continues to falter in the euro-zone and inflationary pressure continue to show evidence of easing.....the cacaphony of calls to lower rates from EU business leaders, politicians and consumers will only get louder.

It won't surprise me at all to see the ECB do an about face in the 1st two qtrs. of 09' and start cutting rates.]]> Wed, 27 Aug 2008 13:57:27 -0400
At the same time Papademos sounded the cauldron on inflation again this morning....German August reads for CPI came in well below consensus....suggestin... lower oil prices are easing some inflationary pressures. My take is that as growth continues to falter in the euro-zone and inflationary pressure continue to show evidence of easing.....the cacaphony of calls to lower rates from EU business leaders, politicians and consumers will only get louder.

It won't surprise me at all to see the ECB do an about face in the 1st two qtrs. of 09' and start cutting rates.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91414-the-equity-pain-trade?source=feed#comment-233698 233698
Who is the last hold out? The BOE intimated cuts may come even before inflation numbers show easing. Stevens came out and pretty much said cuts will come sooner rather than later and my beloved Stars & Strips is on hold for the near future.

Where will growth come from then? Wait! The EU is ever vigilant about inflation. I'll put my money there!



]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 01:47:15 -0400
Who is the last hold out? The BOE intimated cuts may come even before inflation numbers show easing. Stevens came out and pretty much said cuts will come sooner rather than later and my beloved Stars & Strips is on hold for the near future.

Where will growth come from then? Wait! The EU is ever vigilant about inflation. I'll put my money there!



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91204-market-predictions-crazy-about-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-231967 231967
You bring up some great points.

I could be mistaken but I thought the increase in minimum wage was going to get phased in over time. Plausibly this could mitigate wage pressures in the near term keeping us out of a wage-price spiral situation.

I agree with you about the auction rate securities mess. Pretty daunting. I think most companies are working hard to re-imburse investors though and it appears the Fed is going to keep lending to commercial banks for some time to come.

My sense about the negative effect a strengthening USD would have on American exports is would have to appreciate much, much further for that effect to be truly palpable. The flip side is a stronger dollar will help to tamp down domestic inflation and gives Americans more purchasing power. We'll see.]]> Sat, 16 Aug 2008 14:16:09 -0400
You bring up some great points.

I could be mistaken but I thought the increase in minimum wage was going to get phased in over time. Plausibly this could mitigate wage pressures in the near term keeping us out of a wage-price spiral situation.

I agree with you about the auction rate securities mess. Pretty daunting. I think most companies are working hard to re-imburse investors though and it appears the Fed is going to keep lending to commercial banks for some time to come.

My sense about the negative effect a strengthening USD would have on American exports is would have to appreciate much, much further for that effect to be truly palpable. The flip side is a stronger dollar will help to tamp down domestic inflation and gives Americans more purchasing power. We'll see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91204-market-predictions-crazy-about-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-231837 231837
So the truth is revealed.....you're a Jew hater and your opinions read like some hack partisan blogger.]]> Sat, 16 Aug 2008 10:44:05 -0400
So the truth is revealed.....you're a Jew hater and your opinions read like some hack partisan blogger.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91204-market-predictions-crazy-about-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-231593 231593
Interesting take. So you basically want euro to go 1.70 thereby choking off and killing euro-zone exports even more so than is happening now? Great idea.

Interest rates to 10%? Too funny. While the ECB will be lowering rates in 09' - 10'.....ours will be rasing them.....making America's assets more attractive than the euro-zones.

Euro-zone unions aren't doing you any favors either. Because you're so unionized compared to us "stupid Americans" many euro-zone employees have already won outsized wage increases. Betcha can't guess how euro-zone companies are going to compensate for higher unit labor costs. Can you say wage-price spiral?

EU Industrial production, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, business confidence....all falling off in dramatic fashion.

The EU is about to find out if the twelve gold stars on their flag are in deed representative of unity and perfection.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 18:42:16 -0400
Interesting take. So you basically want euro to go 1.70 thereby choking off and killing euro-zone exports even more so than is happening now? Great idea.

Interest rates to 10%? Too funny. While the ECB will be lowering rates in 09' - 10'.....ours will be rasing them.....making America's assets more attractive than the euro-zones.

Euro-zone unions aren't doing you any favors either. Because you're so unionized compared to us "stupid Americans" many euro-zone employees have already won outsized wage increases. Betcha can't guess how euro-zone companies are going to compensate for higher unit labor costs. Can you say wage-price spiral?

EU Industrial production, manufacturing, consumer sentiment, consumer spending, business confidence....all falling off in dramatic fashion.

The EU is about to find out if the twelve gold stars on their flag are in deed representative of unity and perfection.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91204-market-predictions-crazy-about-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-231550 231550
It was interesting this week to see euro-zone, French, Italian & German GDP growth for the 2nd qtr. were all negative. Despite Trichet's hawkish stance I suspect euro-zone slowing will become more and more pronounced in the coming weeks and months The cacophony of calls to lower rates will only get louder and louder.

The BOE's quarterly inflation report this week was striking in how dovish it seemingly was....almost hinting rate cuts may come even before CPI, PPI and import/export input indicators show signs of slowing. The idea being that as long as it was evident that inflation had peaked or was cresting....rate cuts would happen sooner rather than later.

My suspicion is the same may happen in euro-land and that markets haven't priced in this possibility.


]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:24:46 -0400
It was interesting this week to see euro-zone, French, Italian & German GDP growth for the 2nd qtr. were all negative. Despite Trichet's hawkish stance I suspect euro-zone slowing will become more and more pronounced in the coming weeks and months The cacophony of calls to lower rates will only get louder and louder.

The BOE's quarterly inflation report this week was striking in how dovish it seemingly was....almost hinting rate cuts may come even before CPI, PPI and import/export input indicators show signs of slowing. The idea being that as long as it was evident that inflation had peaked or was cresting....rate cuts would happen sooner rather than later.

My suspicion is the same may happen in euro-land and that markets haven't priced in this possibility.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91078-you-can-get-on-the-gold-train-and-ride-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-230864 230864
Did you fall hook line and sinker for Jim Rodger's advice to "dump the dollar and get long gold"? You do know he's been long gold for 10 years now right? How's his advice working out for you lately?

It's pretty clear you're not a trader. Did you really believe an over-valued euro was sustainable? How intense do you think images of people in emerging countries rioting over food prices had to be before there was the will to ease the pressure? Do you really believe there would be any airlines left in a year from now at $146.00 barrel oil?

What you're seeing is the pent-up capitulation of unsustainable global macro-economic imbalances. That's o.k. though.....I'm sure you've been "buying gold on dips" because you know all this nonsense about a stronger dollar will blow over eventually. Better to be right than to make money though right?

]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 05:29:02 -0400
Did you fall hook line and sinker for Jim Rodger's advice to "dump the dollar and get long gold"? You do know he's been long gold for 10 years now right? How's his advice working out for you lately?

It's pretty clear you're not a trader. Did you really believe an over-valued euro was sustainable? How intense do you think images of people in emerging countries rioting over food prices had to be before there was the will to ease the pressure? Do you really believe there would be any airlines left in a year from now at $146.00 barrel oil?

What you're seeing is the pent-up capitulation of unsustainable global macro-economic imbalances. That's o.k. though.....I'm sure you've been "buying gold on dips" because you know all this nonsense about a stronger dollar will blow over eventually. Better to be right than to make money though right?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90107-a-closer-look-at-the-dollar-rally?source=feed#comment-226973 226973
All democracies see an erosion in their manufacturing base as they mature but this isn't the main catalyst to a currency's rise or fall.

Yes...Spain, Ireland & England are all seeing an huge unwinding in their housing markets. 15% of Spain's GDP is it's housing sector. Ouch!

You're minimizing the euro-zone's weakness.....industria... production, manufacturing, consumer spending/sentiment & retail sales have all fallen off a cliff and point to pronounced future economic weakness. Many economists are now saying euro-zone growth probably contracted in the 2nd qtr. In addition, euro-zone businesses are increasingly defaulting on their commercial loans.

A massive slowing in consumer spending suggests the euro-zone isn't currently consuming "half of it's own production". Additionally exports to emerging markets are slowing and England, where roughly 15% of euro-zone exports have gone in the past, is pulling in the purse strings.

Well....you don't have to guess or invent conspiracy theories for why the $ has had such a spectacular run of late.....most folks in trading circles know why. After the ECB's rate decision last week (and in particular Trichet's accompanying statment and news conference) investors began paring back bets the ECB would hike rates again.....to boot, based on medium term fundamentals, the euro is ridiculously over-valued against the dollar.

It's not so much dollar strength you're seeing as much as the euro losing value relative to other currencies....understa... the difference? Yes, it is based on fundamentals....namely the deteriorating fundamentals out of the euro-zone. Most if not all the bad news has already been priced in to the dollar.....can't say the same for the euro. ]]> Sun, 10 Aug 2008 01:11:15 -0400
All democracies see an erosion in their manufacturing base as they mature but this isn't the main catalyst to a currency's rise or fall.

Yes...Spain, Ireland & England are all seeing an huge unwinding in their housing markets. 15% of Spain's GDP is it's housing sector. Ouch!

You're minimizing the euro-zone's weakness.....industria... production, manufacturing, consumer spending/sentiment & retail sales have all fallen off a cliff and point to pronounced future economic weakness. Many economists are now saying euro-zone growth probably contracted in the 2nd qtr. In addition, euro-zone businesses are increasingly defaulting on their commercial loans.

A massive slowing in consumer spending suggests the euro-zone isn't currently consuming "half of it's own production". Additionally exports to emerging markets are slowing and England, where roughly 15% of euro-zone exports have gone in the past, is pulling in the purse strings.

Well....you don't have to guess or invent conspiracy theories for why the $ has had such a spectacular run of late.....most folks in trading circles know why. After the ECB's rate decision last week (and in particular Trichet's accompanying statment and news conference) investors began paring back bets the ECB would hike rates again.....to boot, based on medium term fundamentals, the euro is ridiculously over-valued against the dollar.

It's not so much dollar strength you're seeing as much as the euro losing value relative to other currencies....understa... the difference? Yes, it is based on fundamentals....namely the deteriorating fundamentals out of the euro-zone. Most if not all the bad news has already been priced in to the dollar.....can't say the same for the euro. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89646-is-the-price-of-gold-artificially-depressed?source=feed#comment-225029 225029 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 10:42:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88866-the-u-s-dollar-a-new-accord?source=feed#comment-222829 222829
If you haven't noticed by now....America appears to be on the precipice of re-inventing itself. They won't admit it, but Europeans sometimes resent our ability to do that.....makes them have to look at unpleasant sterotypes they hold about us like "America is run by stupid white men". Who's more progressive now? Far fewer minority faces in French media & politics compared to us.

America still spends more money on research and development than any other country on the planet and we have the finest universities in the world. Despite all the problems, and I agree there are many, the extreme doom & gloom almost appears chic and IMO is misplaced.

]]> Mon, 04 Aug 2008 23:19:15 -0400
If you haven't noticed by now....America appears to be on the precipice of re-inventing itself. They won't admit it, but Europeans sometimes resent our ability to do that.....makes them have to look at unpleasant sterotypes they hold about us like "America is run by stupid white men". Who's more progressive now? Far fewer minority faces in French media & politics compared to us.

America still spends more money on research and development than any other country on the planet and we have the finest universities in the world. Despite all the problems, and I agree there are many, the extreme doom & gloom almost appears chic and IMO is misplaced.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88546-three-themes-to-watch-over-the-next-two-weeks?source=feed#comment-220073 220073
It's striking to still see "the wingless bird" at these levels on NZD/JPY after Bollard has been pretty insistent lately that further rate cuts are in the offing. In the wake of bad German retail numbers, China's manufacutring growth contracting and a general sense the global economy is truly slowing, it's not too surprising to see carry-traders paring back bets.

I'm hoping to be the bane of folks like Mrs. Watanabe in the month of August. Recent retail numbers out of Japan suggest she hasn't been out shopping as much as lately. Maybe the drooping Yen crosses are already having an impact.]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 09:43:54 -0400
It's striking to still see "the wingless bird" at these levels on NZD/JPY after Bollard has been pretty insistent lately that further rate cuts are in the offing. In the wake of bad German retail numbers, China's manufacutring growth contracting and a general sense the global economy is truly slowing, it's not too surprising to see carry-traders paring back bets.

I'm hoping to be the bane of folks like Mrs. Watanabe in the month of August. Recent retail numbers out of Japan suggest she hasn't been out shopping as much as lately. Maybe the drooping Yen crosses are already having an impact.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87754-is-the-dollar-rallying-on-realigned-expectations?source=feed#comment-218034 218034
Stalled exports from a an over valued euro is a slow burn down. In the near and maybe medium term the dollar will perculate. To get real long-term traction America needs to fix it's financial house.

The EU is about to find out if the twelve stars on their flag are in deed symbolic of unity and perfection.

]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 03:38:38 -0400
Stalled exports from a an over valued euro is a slow burn down. In the near and maybe medium term the dollar will perculate. To get real long-term traction America needs to fix it's financial house.

The EU is about to find out if the twelve stars on their flag are in deed symbolic of unity and perfection.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87441-are-the-tides-turning-for-the-canadian-dollar?source=feed#comment-217473 217473
Secretary Peters said that Americans drove 9.6 billion fewer vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) in May 2008 than in May 2007, according to the Federal Highway Administration data. This is the LARGEST drop in VMT for any May, which typically reflects increased traffic due to Memorial Day vacations and the beginning of Summer, AND THIS IS THE THIRD-LARGEST MONTHLY DROP IN THE 66 YEARS SUCH DATA HAVE BEEN RECORDED. Three of the largest single-month declines - each topping 9 billion miles - have occured in December.

To boot this is a May report and given the further increases in gasoline prices in June and July it's very plausible that gasoline demand worsened. If oil prices continue to ebb we could see a bullish USD break-out against the Loonie.

www.dot.gov/affairs/do...]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 11:55:24 -0400
Secretary Peters said that Americans drove 9.6 billion fewer vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) in May 2008 than in May 2007, according to the Federal Highway Administration data. This is the LARGEST drop in VMT for any May, which typically reflects increased traffic due to Memorial Day vacations and the beginning of Summer, AND THIS IS THE THIRD-LARGEST MONTHLY DROP IN THE 66 YEARS SUCH DATA HAVE BEEN RECORDED. Three of the largest single-month declines - each topping 9 billion miles - have occured in December.

To boot this is a May report and given the further increases in gasoline prices in June and July it's very plausible that gasoline demand worsened. If oil prices continue to ebb we could see a bullish USD break-out against the Loonie.

www.dot.gov/affairs/do...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87419-dollar-bulls-increased-economic-tolerance?source=feed#comment-216844 216844
Between 2001 & 2002 we lost around 1.9 million non-farm pay roll jobs. (BLS)

So I stick to my original contention that we haven't even come close to the job losses that occured earlier this decade.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 17:31:58 -0400
Between 2001 & 2002 we lost around 1.9 million non-farm pay roll jobs. (BLS)

So I stick to my original contention that we haven't even come close to the job losses that occured earlier this decade.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87419-dollar-bulls-increased-economic-tolerance?source=feed#comment-216641 216641
The interesting thing about job losses is we just haven't seen the massive lay-offs you would expect to see by now. Even when you remove the BLS's funking "birth/death" ratio calculation, we haven't even come close to the number of jobs lost in the 01' - 02' recession.

At the moment I feel like it's a battle of the ugly ducklings between euro & usd but given how fast things are falling off in the EU block I won't be surprised to see euro around the 1.45 - 1.50 handles in 6 months to a year.

Just me but I'm going to use any remaining euro strength i.e. hotter than expected inflation numbers, horrible NFP report this Friday, etc. to get short euros. The "soft landing" they're expecting over there is looking more and more like it's going to be a "hard" one.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 13:15:04 -0400
The interesting thing about job losses is we just haven't seen the massive lay-offs you would expect to see by now. Even when you remove the BLS's funking "birth/death" ratio calculation, we haven't even come close to the number of jobs lost in the 01' - 02' recession.

At the moment I feel like it's a battle of the ugly ducklings between euro & usd but given how fast things are falling off in the EU block I won't be surprised to see euro around the 1.45 - 1.50 handles in 6 months to a year.

Just me but I'm going to use any remaining euro strength i.e. hotter than expected inflation numbers, horrible NFP report this Friday, etc. to get short euros. The "soft landing" they're expecting over there is looking more and more like it's going to be a "hard" one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87370-has-the-dollar-bottomed?source=feed#comment-216615 216615
One could argue that between the euro & dollar it's a "battle of the ugly ducklings" at the moment but it seems clear to me, despite all our troubles that are pretty much all priced in to the buck by now, that the euro is wildly over-valued relative to the dollar and yen given their medium term fundamentals.

It won't be a straight line but don't be surprised to see the euro around the 1.45 - 1.50 handles in 6 months to a year.....if even that long.]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 12:56:10 -0400
One could argue that between the euro & dollar it's a "battle of the ugly ducklings" at the moment but it seems clear to me, despite all our troubles that are pretty much all priced in to the buck by now, that the euro is wildly over-valued relative to the dollar and yen given their medium term fundamentals.

It won't be a straight line but don't be surprised to see the euro around the 1.45 - 1.50 handles in 6 months to a year.....if even that long.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87095-u-s-dollar-shaking-off-risk-aversion?source=feed#comment-214568 214568
On balance I would have to agree with Ms. Lien.

In addition to defense spending, non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft rose 1.4% after a decline of 0.1% in May. Shipment of these items rose 0.7% after a 0.2% gain the month before.

Clearly the numbers reflect more than military spending and suggest U.S. factories are holding up due to increased exports overseas. If you want further proof than check out 2nd qtr. & 3rd qtr. results of companies like Caterpillar and Monsanto.]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:07:27 -0400
On balance I would have to agree with Ms. Lien.

In addition to defense spending, non-defense capital goods, excluding aircraft rose 1.4% after a decline of 0.1% in May. Shipment of these items rose 0.7% after a 0.2% gain the month before.

Clearly the numbers reflect more than military spending and suggest U.S. factories are holding up due to increased exports overseas. If you want further proof than check out 2nd qtr. & 3rd qtr. results of companies like Caterpillar and Monsanto.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87046-dag-nab-it-how-nab-s-writedown-of-u-s-portfolio-could-hurt-financials?source=feed#comment-214333 214333
It seems like every day we hear another story about the pernicious inflation problem out of emerging Asia. If I saw correctly....Malaysia, Thailand, The Phillipines & a few other non-descript countries from the region have raised their central banking rates. (Even Brazil surprised the other day by raising their key banking rate to a whopping 13%. Did The Economist magazine article about their "creative" inflation measures shame them a bit? LOL.)

With Japanese CPI running at a 10 year high, Japan may eventually have to go back on it's stance of not raising rates and start raising late this year or early 09'. Even if they don't its hard not to tie them in with the over all updraft of inflation out of the region.

Conversly, the euro-zone is cracking and as the data gets weaker and weaker traders IMO will begin to "price out" future rate increases. When recent comments like ECB Governor Liebscher's push the pair higher I think to myself.....wonderful! A higher entry point to short the pair.
]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:49:06 -0400
It seems like every day we hear another story about the pernicious inflation problem out of emerging Asia. If I saw correctly....Malaysia, Thailand, The Phillipines & a few other non-descript countries from the region have raised their central banking rates. (Even Brazil surprised the other day by raising their key banking rate to a whopping 13%. Did The Economist magazine article about their "creative" inflation measures shame them a bit? LOL.)

With Japanese CPI running at a 10 year high, Japan may eventually have to go back on it's stance of not raising rates and start raising late this year or early 09'. Even if they don't its hard not to tie them in with the over all updraft of inflation out of the region.

Conversly, the euro-zone is cracking and as the data gets weaker and weaker traders IMO will begin to "price out" future rate increases. When recent comments like ECB Governor Liebscher's push the pair higher I think to myself.....wonderful! A higher entry point to short the pair.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86754-dollar-trading-well-after-new-zealand-cuts-rates?source=feed#comment-214304 214304
Those of you who are confounded by the dollar's recent strength it's important to understand that it's not so much the dollar appreciating against the euro as much as it's the euro losing some value against other currencies. It was very telling that despite yesterday's stock market rout.....the USD held up pretty well against the euro. Psychology is changing and it's becoming quite clear that the euro-zone may be in for a "hard landing" i.e. German & euro-zone June PMI reads below 50 indicating contraction, balloning trade deficit, falling French consumer spending, etc.]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 10:29:04 -0400
Those of you who are confounded by the dollar's recent strength it's important to understand that it's not so much the dollar appreciating against the euro as much as it's the euro losing some value against other currencies. It was very telling that despite yesterday's stock market rout.....the USD held up pretty well against the euro. Psychology is changing and it's becoming quite clear that the euro-zone may be in for a "hard landing" i.e. German & euro-zone June PMI reads below 50 indicating contraction, balloning trade deficit, falling French consumer spending, etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86644-a-surprise-interest-rate-cut-from-new-zealand?source=feed#comment-213221 213221
I got short at .7650 with a stop at .7750 (just above major trendline resistance) and took profits at .7450. Apparently I should have let it run a bit.

Looking to see if I can get short again on strength at around .7480 with a take profit objective near trendline support around .7300 -.7310.

I might be dreamin' but we'll see.]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 10:02:51 -0400
I got short at .7650 with a stop at .7750 (just above major trendline resistance) and took profits at .7450. Apparently I should have let it run a bit.

Looking to see if I can get short again on strength at around .7480 with a take profit objective near trendline support around .7300 -.7310.

I might be dreamin' but we'll see.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86593-confluence-of-factors-boost-dollar-wednesday?source=feed#comment-212944 212944
Despite the dour mood of CEO's at financials recently reporting 2 qtr. results ,none the less, investors are eagerly lapping up all their shares. Didn't that happen in the 1st qtr. too?]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 01:14:03 -0400
Despite the dour mood of CEO's at financials recently reporting 2 qtr. results ,none the less, investors are eagerly lapping up all their shares. Didn't that happen in the 1st qtr. too?]]>