Coelacanth

Will Thursday's Retail Sales Report Be Strong or Weak?

I read today's Beige Book (data through June 2nd) and the segment on consumer spending said spending was "generally lackluster".

Most sales remained below year ago figures. Interestingly though most districts said that inventories were in line with expectations which probably means they're ordering less.

6 out of the 12 districts reported "lower selling prices and widespread promotional/discount activity....". The same districts also said they "continue to focus on ways to reduce costs and become more efficient...."

Auto dealers, almost across the board, reported inventories were higher than they wanted and sales were mixed.

Pretty much what we've seen so far.....when you strip out auto sales, retail results are middling and also skewed towards necessities, food and energy.

With all the dollar jaw boning Bernanke & Paulson (looks like Abercrombie & Fitch. LOL) have been doing lately I think retail is going to have to really disappoint tomorrow to see real dollar weakness.

I'm not getting in front of the number. If the number comes in only slightly worse than expectations (which seems likely) then I'm going to get long USD after the initial weakness.

Neo needs to consult the Architect now.

Weak Retail Sales Don't Necessarily Follow Weak Job Growth

Tough call.

I think the retail number is going to show more of what we've been seeing; that given the circumstances retail has kept up better than many expected but consumers are clearly strapped.

It barely got noticed last week when non-mortgage related consumer debt grew to $15.3 billion in March from $5.2 billion in February. A better than consensus number wouldn't surprise me but it'll mask