Coelacanth

Will the European Central Bank Cut Rates - It’s Anybody's Guess

The ECB's Papademos got on the wires this morning and said they may have to raise rates if growth picks up or to quell a "wage price spiral". He's a known hawk and it's hard for me to imagine many currency traders (myself included) out there still believe the ECB will raise rates.

At the same time Papademos sounded the cauldron on inflation again this morning....German August reads for CPI came in well below consensus....suggestin... lower oil prices are easing some inflationary pressures. My take is that as growth continues to falter in the euro-zone and inflationary pressure continue to show evidence of easing.....the cacaphony of calls to lower rates from EU business leaders, politicians and consumers will only get louder.

It won't surprise me at all to see the ECB do an about face in the 1st two qtrs. of 09' and start cutting rates.