jmkeynes

6 Themes Affecting the Global Economy

You may want to consider long bond interest rates, too. Up until the late 90's, whenever commodities went up long bond prices went down (since yields went up to account for inflation). But, since 2002 commodity prices have run away. Go to yahoo and try charting 10 or 20 year treasury interest rates (^TNX or ^TYX) against commodity prices (^DJC) starting in 1997. You'll see that in 2002 commodity prices have just soared.

Probably the Jim Rogers article talks about this. Anyway, eventually treasury yields will have to go up with inflation (and/or commodity prices have to go down with deflation).

My guess is that as china and other countries (e.g. Saudi Arabia) form sovereign wealth funds they'll start moving money out of treasuries and into other asset classes. So, all other things being equal, this would mean that long term treasury interest yields will be going up, and bond prices down.