larsson's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/177075/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-183850 183850
So Jack, according to this !!conservative!! projection from hobo, TSL can make EPS 5$ + 2008. 2009 is booked 60% with fixed ASP's in USD. PSi is contracted to fix prices, and remaining PSi will just drop in price. That said, and a ramp from 2008 to 2009 also hobo inidcated EPS 10$ for 2009. All essential figours are out and +/- 20% sure. Going for EPS 5$ 2009 is just a mistake IMHO - better not to mention EPS 2009 at all once you find it unclear.

The rest of your comments are great, keep it up! ]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:20:57 -0400
So Jack, according to this !!conservative!! projection from hobo, TSL can make EPS 5$ + 2008. 2009 is booked 60% with fixed ASP's in USD. PSi is contracted to fix prices, and remaining PSi will just drop in price. That said, and a ramp from 2008 to 2009 also hobo inidcated EPS 10$ for 2009. All essential figours are out and +/- 20% sure. Going for EPS 5$ 2009 is just a mistake IMHO - better not to mention EPS 2009 at all once you find it unclear.

The rest of your comments are great, keep it up! ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-183848 183848
I know because of what happened in Q1, many of you might think my estimates for tsl are crazy. I believe them to be entirely achievable and in line with what tsl has said. If you actually spent the time to read my logic, and do the numbers yourself, you would know that even some figures I use, are possibly conservative, such as my 200/kg silicon cost for Q4 of this year, when their 50% long term contracted virgin silicon prices could take it much lower. In fact, prior to seeing csiq's Q1 results, leading me to write my summary on what would happen if tsl's asps also trended like csiq (and subsequently yge and solf), I actually was only predicting .55 eps for tsl in Q1. And this is excluding knowledge of the huge non-operational line item expenses. In fact, some of you were saying my estimates were too low because they reported .61 eps in the prior quarter *chuckle*. Even the day prior to their Q1 earnings, I noted that if asps did not trend with peers, I saw their gross margins would drop to 24-25% with eps around .55-.60. Anyways here are my estimates for the rest of the year:

Q2:
asp: 3.93/watt; shipment: 44mw; revenue: 173m
silicon cost: 1.81/watt; silicon price: 259/kg; processing cost: 1.14/watt;
product cost: 2.95/watt; gross margin: 25%
operating expenses: 15.5m; non-operating expenses: 6.5m; tax: 1.25m
net income: 20m; eps: .80 (excluding poly plant charge)

Q3:
asp: 3.90/watt; shipment: 60mw; revenue: 234m
silicon cost: 1.60/watt; silicon price 229/kg; processing cost: 1.10/watt
product cost: 2.70/watt; gross margin: 30.75%
operating expenses: 18.75m; non-operating expenses: 7.5m; tax: 2.5m
net income: 43.25m; eps: 1.72

Q4:
asp: 3.90/watt; shipment: 70mw; revenue: 273m
silicon cost: 1.40/watt; silicon price: 200/kg; processing cost: 1.05/watt
product cost: 2.45/watt; gross margin: 37.2%
operating expenses: 20.5m; non-operating expenses: 8.5m; tax: 3.8m
net income: 68.2m; eps: 2.72 ]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:15:44 -0400
I know because of what happened in Q1, many of you might think my estimates for tsl are crazy. I believe them to be entirely achievable and in line with what tsl has said. If you actually spent the time to read my logic, and do the numbers yourself, you would know that even some figures I use, are possibly conservative, such as my 200/kg silicon cost for Q4 of this year, when their 50% long term contracted virgin silicon prices could take it much lower. In fact, prior to seeing csiq's Q1 results, leading me to write my summary on what would happen if tsl's asps also trended like csiq (and subsequently yge and solf), I actually was only predicting .55 eps for tsl in Q1. And this is excluding knowledge of the huge non-operational line item expenses. In fact, some of you were saying my estimates were too low because they reported .61 eps in the prior quarter *chuckle*. Even the day prior to their Q1 earnings, I noted that if asps did not trend with peers, I saw their gross margins would drop to 24-25% with eps around .55-.60. Anyways here are my estimates for the rest of the year:

Q2:
asp: 3.93/watt; shipment: 44mw; revenue: 173m
silicon cost: 1.81/watt; silicon price: 259/kg; processing cost: 1.14/watt;
product cost: 2.95/watt; gross margin: 25%
operating expenses: 15.5m; non-operating expenses: 6.5m; tax: 1.25m
net income: 20m; eps: .80 (excluding poly plant charge)

Q3:
asp: 3.90/watt; shipment: 60mw; revenue: 234m
silicon cost: 1.60/watt; silicon price 229/kg; processing cost: 1.10/watt
product cost: 2.70/watt; gross margin: 30.75%
operating expenses: 18.75m; non-operating expenses: 7.5m; tax: 2.5m
net income: 43.25m; eps: 1.72

Q4:
asp: 3.90/watt; shipment: 70mw; revenue: 273m
silicon cost: 1.40/watt; silicon price: 200/kg; processing cost: 1.05/watt
product cost: 2.45/watt; gross margin: 37.2%
operating expenses: 20.5m; non-operating expenses: 8.5m; tax: 3.8m
net income: 68.2m; eps: 2.72 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-183847 183847
7) I don't expect analyst estimates will be anywhere near as high as I have mine. The reason is I am deducing their silicon cost reduction for the second half, based on what tsl has said. I think analyst will most likely use midpoint figures for tsl's guidance, they should get eps estimates very close to $3.75-4.00 for 2008. Top end solar analyst like Stone who already had his estimate above $4.00 before the Q1 report might possibly raise his numbers, if he makes the same deductions based on comments tsl made on their recent conference calls. The reasons why is based on his estimates, which implied lower operational metrics than tsl showed in Q1. Although the huge non-operational expenses totally threw off numbers, their level of operations should give confidence that they can be carried for the remainder of the year, when non-operational expenses, although perhaps larger, won't much as great of an impact on overall eps numbers. Also if anyone really applies simply logic, they could easily estimate that tsl's 2008 gross margin guidance of 23-25% for the entire year is impossibly low, even on the high end, when Q1 gross margins already stood at 25.8%, Q2 won't be too much lower, and Q3-Q4 would see relatively stable asps but much less silicon costs as well as higher operational efficiencies. It's harder to see unless you look at their business in terms of individual cost components, such as I've broken out below. For example, an additional .10/watt processing cost reduction from the 1.17/watt they saw in Q1 would add at least 2.5% of gross margins alone.
]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:15:04 -0400
7) I don't expect analyst estimates will be anywhere near as high as I have mine. The reason is I am deducing their silicon cost reduction for the second half, based on what tsl has said. I think analyst will most likely use midpoint figures for tsl's guidance, they should get eps estimates very close to $3.75-4.00 for 2008. Top end solar analyst like Stone who already had his estimate above $4.00 before the Q1 report might possibly raise his numbers, if he makes the same deductions based on comments tsl made on their recent conference calls. The reasons why is based on his estimates, which implied lower operational metrics than tsl showed in Q1. Although the huge non-operational expenses totally threw off numbers, their level of operations should give confidence that they can be carried for the remainder of the year, when non-operational expenses, although perhaps larger, won't much as great of an impact on overall eps numbers. Also if anyone really applies simply logic, they could easily estimate that tsl's 2008 gross margin guidance of 23-25% for the entire year is impossibly low, even on the high end, when Q1 gross margins already stood at 25.8%, Q2 won't be too much lower, and Q3-Q4 would see relatively stable asps but much less silicon costs as well as higher operational efficiencies. It's harder to see unless you look at their business in terms of individual cost components, such as I've broken out below. For example, an additional .10/watt processing cost reduction from the 1.17/watt they saw in Q1 would add at least 2.5% of gross margins alone.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-183846 183846
4) They did a great job on getting operating costs in line, as they have stressed for two straight quarters. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenues dropped from 12%, to 11.2%, to 9% during the last 3 quarters, below the 9.5% guidance the prior quarter. Once again, they have been conservative on this operating metric. For tsl to keep 2008 total operating expenses to 8% of revenues, that would have to imply that Q3 and Q4 operating expense levels would have to be 8% or lower. I used 9% for Q2, 8% for Q3, and 7.5% for Q4, which as a whole still added up to over their 8% target, but should work for the sake of being conservative. Note that peers have these figures at 6-7%, so it's not like tsl is cutting corners, and thus probably have more upside to cut expenses on in the future.
]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:12:57 -0400
4) They did a great job on getting operating costs in line, as they have stressed for two straight quarters. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenues dropped from 12%, to 11.2%, to 9% during the last 3 quarters, below the 9.5% guidance the prior quarter. Once again, they have been conservative on this operating metric. For tsl to keep 2008 total operating expenses to 8% of revenues, that would have to imply that Q3 and Q4 operating expense levels would have to be 8% or lower. I used 9% for Q2, 8% for Q3, and 7.5% for Q4, which as a whole still added up to over their 8% target, but should work for the sake of being conservative. Note that peers have these figures at 6-7%, so it's not like tsl is cutting corners, and thus probably have more upside to cut expenses on in the future.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-183845 183845
Ok after taking notes on several conference call listenings, I made some slight deductions and estimates on 2008. This is not for everyone, so if you are not a long term investor in tsl, you can just skip this post since I will make no stock price prediction especially for the short term. First I want to make a few comments on what was said on the earnings release and the conference call.

1) One of the main differences between tsl and its direct peers is that tsl decided to sign long term contracts with customers, and apparently not as weighted in euro dollar payments. Because of this, they did not benefit from any asp rise in Q1, nor will they for any further rises this year. The advantage is, their asp visibility, in their reported usd, is the most clear, thus allowing them to give very narrow ranges for this year. In addition, they also have good visibility into 2009, with asp ranges not significantly lower than 2008 - something that I'm sure is very shocking for many analysts predicting massive 25% asp drops next year. Obviously, their visiblity makes calculating their business for this year much easier. The ability for us to predict tsl's asp range for the rest of 2008 is extremely important, because it is one of two very unpredictable variables. The other is being silicon.

2) At 7.5g/watt, tsl's blended silicon cost for Q1 was 235/kg, up from 195/kg the prior quarter. By being able to drop silicon usage from 8g/watt to 7.5g/watt sequentially, they were able to reduce the silicon cost rise from 15% down to 12%. In addition, I noted in earlier posts that I believed tsl was very conservative on many parts of their guidance during their Q4 2007 quarter. tsl guided for an average of 7.8g/watt silicon usage for all of 2008. They are already at 7.5g/watt during Q1, and guided Q2 to be at 7g/watt, a remarkable improvement in their operating efficiencies. Well it's remarkable to what they guided to, as you can see, was as conservative as you can get. However, if you listened to ldk and sol, you'd know that eventually tsl would be able to achieve these results. Luckily, they did so in under two quarters. Thus as a result, even if silicon costs rise by 10% sequentially, silicon cost would only rise to 1.81/watt in Q2, from 1.76/watt in Q1. This along with what they guided for Q2 asps, should allow them to achieve 25% gross margins.



]]> Thu, 12 Jun 2008 00:12:19 -0400
Ok after taking notes on several conference call listenings, I made some slight deductions and estimates on 2008. This is not for everyone, so if you are not a long term investor in tsl, you can just skip this post since I will make no stock price prediction especially for the short term. First I want to make a few comments on what was said on the earnings release and the conference call.

1) One of the main differences between tsl and its direct peers is that tsl decided to sign long term contracts with customers, and apparently not as weighted in euro dollar payments. Because of this, they did not benefit from any asp rise in Q1, nor will they for any further rises this year. The advantage is, their asp visibility, in their reported usd, is the most clear, thus allowing them to give very narrow ranges for this year. In addition, they also have good visibility into 2009, with asp ranges not significantly lower than 2008 - something that I'm sure is very shocking for many analysts predicting massive 25% asp drops next year. Obviously, their visiblity makes calculating their business for this year much easier. The ability for us to predict tsl's asp range for the rest of 2008 is extremely important, because it is one of two very unpredictable variables. The other is being silicon.

2) At 7.5g/watt, tsl's blended silicon cost for Q1 was 235/kg, up from 195/kg the prior quarter. By being able to drop silicon usage from 8g/watt to 7.5g/watt sequentially, they were able to reduce the silicon cost rise from 15% down to 12%. In addition, I noted in earlier posts that I believed tsl was very conservative on many parts of their guidance during their Q4 2007 quarter. tsl guided for an average of 7.8g/watt silicon usage for all of 2008. They are already at 7.5g/watt during Q1, and guided Q2 to be at 7g/watt, a remarkable improvement in their operating efficiencies. Well it's remarkable to what they guided to, as you can see, was as conservative as you can get. However, if you listened to ldk and sol, you'd know that eventually tsl would be able to achieve these results. Luckily, they did so in under two quarters. Thus as a result, even if silicon costs rise by 10% sequentially, silicon cost would only rise to 1.81/watt in Q2, from 1.76/watt in Q1. This along with what they guided for Q2 asps, should allow them to achieve 25% gross margins.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80525-profiting-from-panic-selling-in-trina?source=feed#comment-182666 182666
Check out investinghobo on the yahoo board, I don't need to add anything further to his estimation of 5$+ for 2008 and 10$+ for 2009. ]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:24:04 -0400
Check out investinghobo on the yahoo board, I don't need to add anything further to his estimation of 5$+ for 2008 and 10$+ for 2009. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80675-further-thoughts-on-trina-solar-and-the-solar-space?source=feed#comment-182302 182302
Please explain in detail this:

disruptive technologies offering PV panels with ASPs (not costs to produce, but actual sales prices) of $1.00 to $1.50/watt

The rest is fantastic and you did a very good job, keep it up!
]]> Tue, 10 Jun 2008 06:57:46 -0400
Please explain in detail this:

disruptive technologies offering PV panels with ASPs (not costs to produce, but actual sales prices) of $1.00 to $1.50/watt

The rest is fantastic and you did a very good job, keep it up!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80525-profiting-from-panic-selling-in-trina?source=feed#comment-182227 182227 Tue, 10 Jun 2008 01:18:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80341-why-i-m-not-cutting-back-trina-solar-before-earnings?source=feed#comment-180136 180136 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 05:41:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80341-why-i-m-not-cutting-back-trina-solar-before-earnings?source=feed#comment-180126 180126 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 04:41:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80341-why-i-m-not-cutting-back-trina-solar-before-earnings?source=feed#comment-180125 180125 Fri, 06 Jun 2008 04:38:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78696-which-are-the-bargains-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-173880 173880 EURO) Impact, the 4 US$ should move to EPS 5US$ and higher, ASP rises with the high EURO. Consider this too. Considerin this + own TSL guidance, we are now trading on P/E 9-10. The latest estimations for TSL are av. 4.1 EPS 2008 and still way too low as not considering currency.Anyhow Jack, you have predicted CISQ and now you predict TSL, you are the No. 1 here in Solar, respect!
]]> Mon, 26 May 2008 03:03:12 -0400 EURO) Impact, the 4 US$ should move to EPS 5US$ and higher, ASP rises with the high EURO. Consider this too. Considerin this + own TSL guidance, we are now trading on P/E 9-10. The latest estimations for TSL are av. 4.1 EPS 2008 and still way too low as not considering currency.Anyhow Jack, you have predicted CISQ and now you predict TSL, you are the No. 1 here in Solar, respect!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/78696-which-are-the-bargains-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-173757 173757 Sun, 25 May 2008 19:48:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/78696-which-are-the-bargains-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-173198 173198
Everyone knows TSL has the lowest P/E's and your SOLF FPE is misleading - with intention ?]]> Sat, 24 May 2008 12:50:48 -0400
Everyone knows TSL has the lowest P/E's and your SOLF FPE is misleading - with intention ?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77546-solarfun-earnings-could-be-the-perfect-trigger-for-a-short-squeeze?source=feed#comment-168934 168934 Fri, 16 May 2008 13:30:07 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77546-solarfun-earnings-could-be-the-perfect-trigger-for-a-short-squeeze?source=feed#comment-168920 168920 Fri, 16 May 2008 13:13:24 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77503-closing-ldk-solar-keeping-trina?source=feed#comment-168578 168578
At 47

TSL is at P/E 9-11 2008
TSL is at P/E 4-5 2009
TSL will grow appr. 100% 2006 - 2010 on yearly bases

Do you want to compare this to LDK or any other solar stock?
]]> Fri, 16 May 2008 02:54:07 -0400
At 47

TSL is at P/E 9-11 2008
TSL is at P/E 4-5 2009
TSL will grow appr. 100% 2006 - 2010 on yearly bases

Do you want to compare this to LDK or any other solar stock?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76924-ldk-solar-earnings-and-the-dark-cloud-of-polysilicon-shortages?source=feed#comment-167269 167269 Wed, 14 May 2008 05:46:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76924-ldk-solar-earnings-and-the-dark-cloud-of-polysilicon-shortages?source=feed#comment-167251 167251
Forget about yahoo estimations!

Latest estimations on TSL show a 4-5 EPS in 2008 and a 8-10 EPS in 2009. Now compare this to LDK!

Jack is totally right, and after yesterday's gain, Canadian is not as cheap as TSL again. So again, leave the high risk investment of LDK and look for something safe and cheap - TSL]]> Wed, 14 May 2008 03:07:23 -0400
Forget about yahoo estimations!

Latest estimations on TSL show a 4-5 EPS in 2008 and a 8-10 EPS in 2009. Now compare this to LDK!

Jack is totally right, and after yesterday's gain, Canadian is not as cheap as TSL again. So again, leave the high risk investment of LDK and look for something safe and cheap - TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76924-ldk-solar-earnings-and-the-dark-cloud-of-polysilicon-shortages?source=feed#comment-166643 166643
LDK is about double valued compared to the P/E of TSL (based on 4-5 EPS 2008), so why waste time with a risky investment like LDK, which is so much depedent on the Poly Plant?

Smart money enters TSL.]]> Tue, 13 May 2008 03:02:28 -0400
LDK is about double valued compared to the P/E of TSL (based on 4-5 EPS 2008), so why waste time with a risky investment like LDK, which is so much depedent on the Poly Plant?

Smart money enters TSL.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73752-those-bubbling-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-156387 156387
I do undertsnad everyone not beeing long some of those stocks, but beeing short at actual values on some of those stocks (TSL,CSIQ,LDK...) could lead to big losses.

So, before misleading others, remove stocks which are trading extremely low as of 2008 P/E from your "posting"!]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 08:04:59 -0400
I do undertsnad everyone not beeing long some of those stocks, but beeing short at actual values on some of those stocks (TSL,CSIQ,LDK...) could lead to big losses.

So, before misleading others, remove stocks which are trading extremely low as of 2008 P/E from your "posting"!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73752-those-bubbling-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-156313 156313
sure not all of the named Chinese Solars will make it. But this is a question for 2010-2013. If you do your research, you will find out from the CC's of the a.m. companies, that demand is so big, that they can't catch up with producing. So a shake out is far away, and there are several years to go before it happens.

You are right, 4-6 months ago, most Chinese solars have been overvalued in a hype, but today -some of the names you mention are trading under P/E 2008 of 15. For such grwoth stocks, there is just no bubble like you predict.

To mention the stock with the lowest P/E, according to analysts they say now that TSL will earn 3.4 US$/Share, while the company guided for 4-5 EPS 2008. We are still at P/E 8-10 at TSL.

This with more than 100% EPS growth 2006-2010 (Sold out 2008 and 75% 2009).

Would you call this a bubble or a fantastic investment?

If you talk about bubbles, mention the right names, US Solars - but leave the names not to be mentioned for your own reputation... ]]> Fri, 25 Apr 2008 03:41:33 -0400
sure not all of the named Chinese Solars will make it. But this is a question for 2010-2013. If you do your research, you will find out from the CC's of the a.m. companies, that demand is so big, that they can't catch up with producing. So a shake out is far away, and there are several years to go before it happens.

You are right, 4-6 months ago, most Chinese solars have been overvalued in a hype, but today -some of the names you mention are trading under P/E 2008 of 15. For such grwoth stocks, there is just no bubble like you predict.

To mention the stock with the lowest P/E, according to analysts they say now that TSL will earn 3.4 US$/Share, while the company guided for 4-5 EPS 2008. We are still at P/E 8-10 at TSL.

This with more than 100% EPS growth 2006-2010 (Sold out 2008 and 75% 2009).

Would you call this a bubble or a fantastic investment?

If you talk about bubbles, mention the right names, US Solars - but leave the names not to be mentioned for your own reputation... ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73752-those-bubbling-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-155968 155968 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 12:24:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73752-those-bubbling-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-155765 155765 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 08:46:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73752-those-bubbling-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-155678 155678 Thu, 24 Apr 2008 05:02:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71983-trina-solar-should-rise-on-bullish-note?source=feed#comment-149399 149399
This stock is one of the most fantastic stroies in the sector.

With the actual much too low street estimation of EPS, Trina can become the No. 1 Momentum Player in the sector, as it will be easy to beat the street every single Q big time.


]]> Sat, 12 Apr 2008 05:56:17 -0400
This stock is one of the most fantastic stroies in the sector.

With the actual much too low street estimation of EPS, Trina can become the No. 1 Momentum Player in the sector, as it will be easy to beat the street every single Q big time.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71983-trina-solar-should-rise-on-bullish-note?source=feed#comment-149398 149398
End of year, Trina will have EPS - 4 or 5 times P/E 40-50.

So TSL has a target price of above 150 us$ 2008]]> Sat, 12 Apr 2008 05:52:14 -0400
End of year, Trina will have EPS - 4 or 5 times P/E 40-50.

So TSL has a target price of above 150 us$ 2008]]>