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edwar77

edwar77
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  • Memorial Production Partners - Time To Take Advantage Of The Recent Secondary? [View article]
    Insider Liquidations
    What Remaining Stake Does MRDH have in MEMP?

    Looking at the Insider Holdings (Yahoo Finance) I see "Insiders" now hold approx 1.8% of outstanding. MRDH and one director sold over 14 million shares in Nov 2013 and now have sold another 5+ million. Not sure how many they have left now but it does beg the question: why have they sold so much? That 21 million share total is roughly 25% of the total outstanding ! Does anyone know what % of their pre-Nov 2013 total holdings they have liquidated in these two transactions? If they are substantially out of the stock what implication might this have for the dividend? If my math is wrong I apologize in advance. My analysis was quick and dirty.
    Apr 13, 2015. 02:25 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook, LinkedIn: Recent Intensive Insider Selling [View article]
    RE: Insider Sales - It's not surprising that management of FB and LNKD with large holdings are only sellers. They are monetizing (diversifying) what from a portfolio basis they have too much of already. Why would they be buyers? They are still holders of significant %'s of their total original holdings. I don't think you can read this as a clear signal of their negative outlook. If they were selling MOST or all their holdings then that might be more revealing.
    (No comment on the remainder of your short candidate qualifications.)
    Aug 2, 2013. 04:47 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix The Exception That Proves The Rule? [View article]
    Keep in mind that they do not "own" the developed content ( H of Cards, etc.) in the way HBO and others do. NFLX has purchased a limited window of time during which the content is exclusive. Not saying this is good or bad relative to what they are paying for these rights. I'm only pointing out that it's not like an asset that once paid for keeps producing revenue at no further cost. The cost of content question is far from answered with this company.
    May 28, 2013. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Gold For The Long Haul [View article]
    It's true that GOLD is not a "currency". However I believe when most people say that it is what they mean more precisely is that it is ( as you point out) a store of value with a vigorous physical market in which to buy and sell. Therefore it accomplishes the obvious purpose as opposed to other (fiat) currencies. The fact that you will have to convert into a form of exchange is a technicality and easily done. There are many possible negatives you can argue about GOLD but I don't see this among them.
    May 10, 2013. 01:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife KPMG Affair Compelling Opportunity For Shareholders [View article]
    A tender offer is certainly possible and a risk for the short side but it would be have to be contingent on the re audit of the prior KPMG years. History provides examples of accounting firms getting very cozy with big fee multi-year audit clients. They have many methods and considerable leeway to accommodate these clients' reporting preferences without technically crossing the line of legal or ethical violations. A new firm coming in may have difficulty supporting some of these "close to the line positions" ( if they exist) and this could create some issues for management where none existed before with KPMG. I agree these things take time but I am also a bit surprised that they were not able to announce the engagement of a new auditor at the S/H meeting. Even with all the positive reassurances from the company and particularly KPMG I would not yet assume this is a 100% non-issue.
    Apr 25, 2013. 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Netflix The Next Enron? [View article]
    I don't understand how NFLX can dominate the content providers at 45 mm subs or ANY other subscriber base penetration.
    They remain primarily a distribution system in a competitive marketplace for acquiring content.
    Content owners will make rational deals with NFLX when they are equal or superior to other choices or ancillary to them. In the medium term NFLX will have to pay what the competitive market will bear for content. With several sizable competitors ( AMZN, HULU) operating now and several more staging to come into the market in the future the content owners will be taking back a significant share of the fat margins currently enjoyed by NFLX.
    Trying to maintain margins will be an increasing challenge for NFLX. When this shows up in a future earning report it will create a big miss for that quarter. The valuation of the company today implies the current level of profitability will remain stable or grow for years to come. Tweaking the margins downward sends the p/e and peg ratios even further into the stratosphere. Great product and customer experience but valuation is based on long term assumptions that are not realistic. There is always the slim chance that one of the content owners decides to buy NFLX for their technology and installed subscriber base. However it would not likely happen at the current valuation. Would you rather buy NFLX for 12Billion or spend a fraction of that to build your own platform with a superior product offering and price compete for NFLX subs?
    Apr 24, 2013. 04:26 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Announcement [View article]
    So what does this mean for 4-29-13 earnings release? Postponed?
    Can they bring in a new firm (with 3 weeks to go) and produce an audited (10-Q) quarter and verify the past years that KPMG has withdrawn it's opinion on? Doubtful. I am surprised the stock isn't down more.
    Apr 9, 2013. 03:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Rising Content Costs Stump Growth [View article]
    RE: Insider selling : If you remember the insiders were selling boatloads of stock in the run to $300+ but the market didn't seem to care then either. Of course they were also managing a stock buy-back program at the same time which should have been a double red flag.
    Feb 4, 2013. 08:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Rising Content Costs Stump Growth [View article]
    One of the largest criticisms of the NFLX financials is the large content costs and the rising associated liability and how it is accounted for. Since the content providers are essentially unsecured lenders of NFLX regarding this growing "loan" why didn't they take more aggressive actions when the company crashed to $60/share. Surely if at that time they (as competitors some) thought the company would (a) fail or (b) succeed wildly they could have pushed to acquire them on the cheap ( reorganization of the "debt") which would help themselves in either case. However they continue to "lend" and allow the liability to grow. What if anything does this suggest about these huge industry players' opinion of NFLX's future?
    Feb 4, 2013. 07:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Q4 Earnings: Solid Results Confirm The Company's Long-Term Potential [View article]
    So cash flow was negatively affected because the company has to pay it's bills? ( content, taxes) - duh ! Maybe Open Connect associated costs are " one time" but the rest are not. I am also concerned that the "off - balance sheet" content obligations do not seem to enter into most discussions. This company is carrying a "high" total debt as a ratio of almost any other metric. But granted the growth in subs and international progress were impressive. Valuation seems way overdone but for now it appears the market wants to "party on" with NFLX.
    Jan 24, 2013. 11:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Earnings Play: Is Netflix Acquirable Or Is Icahn Wrong? [View article]
    Isn't this company expert in hiding true metrics through selective disclosures and how they classify a new sub? ( e.g trial subs etc.)
    Jan 23, 2013. 02:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Who Wins In The Netflix Breakup? [View article]
    I agree that as NFLX's market value nosedives it becomes a possible vehicle for a major player facing the "make or buy" decision. At what price does NFLX become a "value" vis a vis replacement cost for a Google et al?
    Sep 19, 2011. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cisco: Tech Has Never Been Cheaper [View article]
    Other than a lower price which of the factors you mention are any more compelling now than during any of the last few quarters? Your technical analysis may be correct but the fundamentals you wrap around it seem a bit stale.
    Aug 10, 2011. 05:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix: Why the Truth Probably Will Not Surface Anytime Soon [View article]
    I read many comments regarding the unlimited growth potential of Netflix vs. Cable providers and relative value of their pricing. Netflix unlike a cable provider does not control the delivery infrastructure. They essentially are getting a subsidized ride on the current bandwidth pricing matrix ( of the telecom/cable providers). Will this remain so or will some variant of tiered pricing eventually become a reality? Bandwidth must remain "cheap" to preserve NFLX margins.
    Jul 22, 2011. 10:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Messenger: Is Research In Motion Making a Big Mistake? [View article]
    As far as making BBM valuable as a way to connect workers using (office) computers with their mobile co-workers goes... doesn't AOL or Yahoo messenger and others like them already do a good job of that? I AOL messenger with my buddies routinely whether at my desktop, laptop, or on my Iphone.
    Mar 27, 2011. 07:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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