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OverTheHill

OverTheHill
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  • Why Dividend Growth Investing Is Not Always Best [View article]
    After several decades of investing, an axiom that has served me well: Take no more risk than is necessary to meet your goals. Selecting an investment style does not ensure achieving goals. More importantly, it is necessary to model a targeted (1) capital appreciation rate; (2) a dividend rate; (3) inflation rate and (4) savings rate to forecast if goals can be met. Annually, adjust the model for portfolio performance, additional investments and inflation. Evaluate necessary changes in strategy to stay on track with meeting goals. This approach avoids the arguments of DGI vs Total Return.
    Jul 25, 2015. 01:52 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting For Volatility When Planning For Retirement [View article]
    Your article presents yet another element that must be considered when planning for retirement. Your basic calculations illustrate the significant impact that volatility can have on a long-term investment plan. While more complicated, if your calculations had been based on actual capital appreciation and dividend growth numbers, DGI readers would have better appreciated your examples.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Investing For Income ONLY: Doing It The Right Way [View article]
    A portfolio of say, $8,000,000 (7 digits) and dividend income of $100,000 (6 digits) produces a yield of 1.25%. Not such a challenge in today's low interest rate environment.
    Oct 21, 2014. 11:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Let's Talk About The Nifty Fifty And Dividend Growth Investing [View article]
    While not an ETF, I like the top 20 (based on Yield) of the Dividend Aristocrats, re-balanced annually.
    Sep 27, 2014. 08:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It Can Be Self-Destructive To Compare Yourself To The S&P 500 [View article]
    Investing requires a plan. Gambling can be done on an ad hoc basis. An investment plan should identify short-term, intermediate-term and long-term goals, buy/sell guidelines and performance metrics to meet the goals. Periodically, the portfolio should be assessed to evaluate how well the plan is working. In other words, "take no more risk than is necessary" to stay on your personal investment plan. With such an approach, comparisons to the S&P 500, or any other index becomes unnecessary.
    Jul 30, 2014. 03:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget About SWANs, Fish And Chowder: Chase Yield In Retirement [View article]
    $0.05 in 1904 and $2.25 in 2014 ... that's an inflation rate of ~3.5%, just about equal to the "official" change in the CPI during that period. Just as the point above about the ratio of a programmer's salary to a the price of a subway token, the historical value of a subway token just about equals the historical change in CPI. Extrapolating forward 30 years forecasts the subway token will cost $6.35 and the programmer's starting salary will be $198k. I wonder how many 2014 college graduates are saving to live in that world?
    Jul 7, 2014. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My 'Buy-The-Dip' High-Yield Portfolio: Security Selection [View article]
    Another two cents ... work towards a portfolio that is sufficiently diverse and with enough (say 30-40) investments that no single failure de-rails the Plan. Classical theory (as well as common sense) says that high yielding investments are prone to provide a bumpier ride that more moderate yielding investments. Hedge you bets just a bit by limiting the consequence of disappointments.
    Jun 28, 2014. 12:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do People Have Such Different Ideas About Retirement? [View article]
    "Why do people have such different ideas about retirement?" .... because some folks have thought more seriously about retirement than other folks. I for one thought I had spent plenty of time thinking about, planning and saving for retirement. Little did I realize how far off I was going to be during the first four years. NOTHING I planned for came to pass in the early days. However, I was fortunate and could go down a different path than was planned. That could well be the greatest benefit of planning for, and saving for retirement ... having the ability to pursue other options if Plan A doesn't pan out. Without a retirement nest egg, alternatives are very limited.
    Jun 28, 2014. 11:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Do People Have Such Different Ideas About Retirement? [View article]
    The financial planning industry should not be painted the same color due to the experience with one jerk / crook / a$$hole representative of that industry. If you follow that logic, the entire economy will spiral to a stop because the same story can be told about plumbers, carpenters, painters, doctors, teachers, waiters or any other service provider. Rather, perhaps the learnings should be applied to selecting another service provider. After all, the day may come when you're hit by a bus and your family is left to sort through your financial plan, or you become old and senile and can not longer tend to your affairs. Just something to think about. (P.S. I am NOT in any way connected with the financial planning community, but neither do I want my wife to have to pick up the pieces after I've been hit by a bus.)
    Jun 28, 2014. 11:33 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: What I Will Do When The Market Corrects [View article]
    Your article serves as a good reminder of the benefits of owning dividend paying stocks; however, I think you may have inadvertently forgotten an additional benefit of your portfolio. Your portfolio is comprised of numerous low beta stocks, creating a portfolio with a Beta of approx 0.65. With a general market correction of 30%, BTDP should decline in the neighborhood of 18-20%; thereby, creating only a slightly less desirable buying opportunity.
    Jun 25, 2014. 10:25 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Richest Man In History Reveals His Simple Wealth Generating Secret [View article]
    To better understand your suggestion, I would appreciate some guidelines on your definition of a "market crash" in the "Hybrid DofD + Value" strategy. Are you suggesting a wait for another 2007-08-09 "crash", or something a bit tamer?
    Mar 28, 2014. 11:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Dividend Income Growth Do You Need? [View article]
    I very much enjoyed your article. It provided a perspective that I had not considered. However, I was not able to follow some of the math. For instance: in the Summary Table of Average Family Expenditures - all items, you show:
    1934_____$1512 1950_____$3808
    This looks like a 151.9% increase in 16 years, rather than 60.29% shown in the table.
    1996____$34,312 2002___$40,748
    This looks like an 18.75% increase in 6 years, versus the 15.79% in 4 years shown in the table.
    I would appreciate seeing a bit more detail in your calculations?
    Feb 17, 2014. 02:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Obama's 'MyRA' Plan Will Impact The U.S. Economy [View article]
    MyRA va ACA ... who can forget the mis-statements, partial truths and outright lies repeatedly said about ACA (not to mention the statements made about Benghazi, the IRS and NSA)? Why would a person risk his retirement savings over the next 25 to 30 years on the word of a such a chameleon? But then "what difference does it make"... what could possibly go wrong with MyRA? Oh, let's remember how well this administration developed and rolled out http://1.usa.gov/1btBOyr.
    Jan 31, 2014. 09:13 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement: The Forgotten Pieces Of The Puzzle [View article]
    The theme of the article is spot on. Few articles stress the importance of developing a retirement budget (identifying discretionary vs non-descretionary expenses) while forecasting a retirement savings / investment plan. The initial budget and savings plan should be prepared several years (possibly as much as 10 years) prior to retirement and then be updated annually. Having time to make adjustments and the knowledge that comes from early planning helps to ensure success. Unfortunately, the example budget in the article grossly understates reality for most locations in the U.S. and excludes numerous line items that many retirees experience. These understatements and exclusions result in significantly underestimating monthly expenses for many retirees.
    Jan 21, 2014. 09:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The ABCs Of Dividend Investing: Divi-Do Or Divi-Don't? [View article]
    For years I benchmarked my portfolio against the movement of the S&P 500. I felt successful if I did better, and felt unsuccessful if I came up short. Most of the time I felt unsuccessful. Later in my investment life, I re-calibrated my benchmark and adopted the mantra: "Take no more risk than is needed to meet your goal". I moved away from YOY comparisons and began to think in 3-yr and 5-yr comparisons against my benchmarks. I am definitely a divi-do. Dividends and dividend growth are important criteria of my benchmark.
    Jan 18, 2014. 09:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
38 Comments
68 Likes