futuresmkt

Apple's Solid Triple Play Will Be Hard to Beat

Yes I'm moving to Win7, I am a diehard XP Prof user but, I am going to give WIN a chance with 7. You can only fight progress for so long! They have to had learned something during the last 10 years!

What Exxon Mobil's Ghana Deal Means for Crude Oil ETFs

I think you would surprise many producers if you said there were 64 billion barrels/day being produced. I think ~ 85 Million is more accurate.

Peak Oil: What Is It?

The description of "Peak Oil" that is used is overly simplistic. First, I suggest that we describe it as point/period in time when it is determined that we have discovered half of all recoverable oil. This is immediately problemmatic because we don't know any future with certainty. Assume we agree on the 1/2 number. Second, rate of extraction is variable (as producers/consumers/tr... witness daily). It is impacted by price, substitution, policy, weather, politics and other imponderables.
During the last 5 years we have seen prices fluctuate from $20 - $147- $35/barrel!!! How do we describe that kind of fluctuation if both production and demand are not elastic... at least in the short term?
Generally speaking, I am a strong proponent of the theory however, I believe that volatility, over the next few years will continue to confuse the issue of total recoverable reserves, even as prices trend higher.

The Renminbi as a Reserve Currency (Part 1)

Things do change. After precious metals and other commodities formed the basis for a stable unit of monetary value (ie. reserve currency), in recent history, a number of european countries (principally because of their gold reserves) and ultimately the United States took on that power/responsibility. For the most part, as we moved to paper currencies (again, backed by hard assets, for the most part), it was generally the military/economic power which determined who would be the lead dog.
In the 21st century, we have an increasing range and number of economic powers (raw material producers, intellectual product producers, semi/finished goods producers, and special entities), quasi transparent financial intermediation and HUGE multinationals who seamlessly transact business in a range of currencies. This increasing sophistication and integration will LESSEN the role of a "reserve currency" as multiple economic units, with clearly defined values, will be interchangeable as a stable measure of value. Of course, there have been baskets of currencies held by governments for hundreds of years so, it is not a new concept. The role of military power, however, continues to recede as a value propositon in determining economic might and thus, currency transactions will be determined more as a function of basic economic value, with military power a reduced component of calculation. For example why, in 50 years, would you want a single reserve currency? Will the world be so destablized and nations so incompetent that there is only one or three nations to which you can turn for a store of value? Lets look forward a little and imagine a more developed world.

Vonage Churning Subscribers, Stomachs

That option is and has been available for some time (call blocking)


On May 09 01:52 PM boblab wrote:

> With telemarketers and bill collectors constantly calling and ignoring
> Do Not Call Lists, Vonage would increase their customer base enormously
> if subscribers could control what calls do and do not get through
> to their phones

PIMCO's Bill Gross Sees a Bleak Future

I agree with PIMCO but, I think the estimate is the top end of the range. If we are looking at 1)long term deficit financing (5-10 years), 2)an current average maturity of total US govt debt of about 50 months, 3) a projected inflationary environment for the foreseeable future; "Growth", only if you include outsized gains in the non-western world (now more than 40% of global GDP)..ps. an ugly secret that for some reason no one wants to acknowledge..they dont need us anymore.. That growth is increasingly corporate earnings ex the US/Europe but included in our domestic GDP numbers, even though we dont see the effect as a nation..earnings are kept offshore or, reinvested where they will earn the most...unfortunately, not here. Did I mention we are a nation of old, sick (look at the meds your parents are taking), incresingly uneducated people who, by definition, are not productive nor, spenders. I'm really worried.

Update on U.S. Debt and Fed Assets

I agree with environment but, I think the seriousness of the implications have not been fleshed out. For a start, 40%+ of budget is Defense..why?? Aging population, minimal labor related manufacturing, decling real wages, no savings and, if so, where will they be invested, here?. Unfortunately, I think we have reached an economic "tipping point" and we will see an accelerated decline in our standard of living, which will not be pretty. I see it now, as I ride the metro, people(20 somethings with office jobs) just appear to be dressed more shabbily than I remember when I was young (61 now). Anecdotally, so many people are talking about buying guns and ammo(not nuts real people!). I'm really concerned but hope I'm wrong, I just, as you, don't see an alternative. Where will the net new jobs come from? Who will fund Medicare/Social Security, infrastructure spending? I think the biggest example of our loss of national self-confidence is the increasing number of people with foreign accents as hosts or experts of our domestic televison news and entertainment programs? I know it sounds selfish to say it but, where else would you find a country who has a similar set of people opining about the state of their nation? Good luck to us all!

On May 22 03:33 PM pslater wrote:

> The outcomes from this appear to be higher interest rates, a lower
> dollar, and slower economic growth as the gov't soaks up much of
> the available capital. Still, after 25 years of investing and closely
> following economics, I have this nagging feeling I might be missing
> something in my analysis. Anyone have any other thoughts?

Selling Short America and the Rest of the World

It's acutally the fault of the welfare mothers who live off the dole of the government. Throw in the uneducated, lazy Americans who wont bother to get a job at Countrywide, Bear, Stearns, LTCM, Federal Reserve, Chrysler, Lehman, Freddie, Fannie, etc. Educated workers who mange our affairs can not possibly be to blame, they are too busy having jets serviced, buying trophy apartments and smuggling Cuban cigars.