OldLimey's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/177447/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/150025-dollar-weakness-the-problem-with-intervention-and-goldman-s-wild-optimism?source=feed#comment-596885 596885 Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:50:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/150056-faber-expects-a-total-collapse?source=feed#comment-596874 596874
My first reaction to Faber's piece was that it was intended as a headline-grabber. Trouble is, his logic is not without merit.


On Jul 21 09:02 AM Francis Schutte wrote:

> Nothing has been solved but all don't pay attention to the fact that
> authorities have embarked on a journey to quantitative easing or
> they can - by simply hitting ENTER - print as much money they need
> to ensure the markets don't crash. And, believe me, they won't hesitate
> to do it!]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:42:43 -0400
My first reaction to Faber's piece was that it was intended as a headline-grabber. Trouble is, his logic is not without merit.


On Jul 21 09:02 AM Francis Schutte wrote:

> Nothing has been solved but all don't pay attention to the fact that
> authorities have embarked on a journey to quantitative easing or
> they can - by simply hitting ENTER - print as much money they need
> to ensure the markets don't crash. And, believe me, they won't hesitate
> to do it!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/150073-bulls-push-through-bears-lines-of-defense?source=feed#comment-596866 596866

On Jul 21 09:13 AM Nick36 wrote:

> Perhaps a lot of so called 'Bears' are simply staying out of the
> market and waiting for better stock valuations. That's why trading
> volumes have been far below average in Dow and S&P 500 for the
> last couple months.
>
> And the thing about Bulls bidding up stock prices based on technical
> analysis regardless of the fundamentals. Is that they've done this
> before and ended up being very sorry about it. In October 2007,
> the Dow and S&P 500 were both reaching record highs. Which was
> after the sub-prime mortgage mess was already discovered and was
> working its way through the financial system.
>
> It's not enough to look at what other investors are doing. You
> also need to look at whether their actions are reasonable or not.
> Or else you end up running of the cliff with the crowd, like a bunch
> of lemmings.]]> Tue, 21 Jul 2009 14:37:30 -0400

On Jul 21 09:13 AM Nick36 wrote:

> Perhaps a lot of so called 'Bears' are simply staying out of the
> market and waiting for better stock valuations. That's why trading
> volumes have been far below average in Dow and S&P 500 for the
> last couple months.
>
> And the thing about Bulls bidding up stock prices based on technical
> analysis regardless of the fundamentals. Is that they've done this
> before and ended up being very sorry about it. In October 2007,
> the Dow and S&P 500 were both reaching record highs. Which was
> after the sub-prime mortgage mess was already discovered and was
> working its way through the financial system.
>
> It's not enough to look at what other investors are doing. You
> also need to look at whether their actions are reasonable or not.
> Or else you end up running of the cliff with the crowd, like a bunch
> of lemmings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149637-can-china-s-raging-bull-market-last?source=feed#comment-593925 593925
1. Chinese statistics are not universally considered to be reliable.

2. The 'China can lead us anywhere' crew are forgetting the flaw in decoupling theory: China still has far too much industrial capacity targeted at the US consumer. This can change over time, but not in just a few months.

3. The specialist aerospace press reported a few months back on (well-corroborated) comments from the top of a leading Chinese company that had been compelled to borrow the equivalent of $35 billion for which it had no use. Probably not a unique example of the purported 'efficiency' of stimulus allocation.

Just as the US 'Goldilocks economy' only impressed the gullible or folks looking for something to be impressed by, we also need to be suspicious of the news out of China. Supertankers don't turn on a yuan, and anybody who can brush off this truism by pointing to the benefits of central planning under crisis conditions is not old enough to have had initimate experience of communist economies and certainly doesn't know today's China.]]> Sun, 19 Jul 2009 13:44:06 -0400
1. Chinese statistics are not universally considered to be reliable.

2. The 'China can lead us anywhere' crew are forgetting the flaw in decoupling theory: China still has far too much industrial capacity targeted at the US consumer. This can change over time, but not in just a few months.

3. The specialist aerospace press reported a few months back on (well-corroborated) comments from the top of a leading Chinese company that had been compelled to borrow the equivalent of $35 billion for which it had no use. Probably not a unique example of the purported 'efficiency' of stimulus allocation.

Just as the US 'Goldilocks economy' only impressed the gullible or folks looking for something to be impressed by, we also need to be suspicious of the news out of China. Supertankers don't turn on a yuan, and anybody who can brush off this truism by pointing to the benefits of central planning under crisis conditions is not old enough to have had initimate experience of communist economies and certainly doesn't know today's China.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149594-supporting-the-financial-system-by-bleeding-the-real-economy?source=feed#comment-593732 593732 Sun, 19 Jul 2009 10:41:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149613-summer-will-ultimately-prove-bullish?source=feed#comment-593719 593719 Sun, 19 Jul 2009 10:31:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149016-what-s-so-great-about-intel-s-earnings?source=feed#comment-590450 590450 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:46:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149049-boomers-in-trouble-the-unheralded-economic-mega-trend-part-2?source=feed#comment-590427 590427
1. I don't and never have done drugs. (Free love also seems to have passed me by for the most part, but as this is a family show I'll move on.)
2. I have no debt, preferring to save.
3. I have never overconsumed. (I have, nonetheless, cut back on discretionary expenditure over the last year or so and see no reason to revert to the former pattern, modest though it was.)
4. I realised 30 years ago that neither my employer nor the state was going to be able to fund my retirement - so I did it myself.
5. I am not unique. Indeed, looking at the people I know it is those between 20 and 40 who seem to be the most devil-may-care overconsumers, not my fellow boomers.

It is not boomers as a whole who are responsible for the mess that future generations will inherit. It is the institutional structure created by a relatively small number of us. Specifically, the 'I want it all and I want it now' world that our leadership elite has created to enrich itself has been bought into lock-stock-and barrel by the 20-40s. The Boomers' sin has been to create an aspirations monster.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:33:54 -0400
1. I don't and never have done drugs. (Free love also seems to have passed me by for the most part, but as this is a family show I'll move on.)
2. I have no debt, preferring to save.
3. I have never overconsumed. (I have, nonetheless, cut back on discretionary expenditure over the last year or so and see no reason to revert to the former pattern, modest though it was.)
4. I realised 30 years ago that neither my employer nor the state was going to be able to fund my retirement - so I did it myself.
5. I am not unique. Indeed, looking at the people I know it is those between 20 and 40 who seem to be the most devil-may-care overconsumers, not my fellow boomers.

It is not boomers as a whole who are responsible for the mess that future generations will inherit. It is the institutional structure created by a relatively small number of us. Specifically, the 'I want it all and I want it now' world that our leadership elite has created to enrich itself has been bought into lock-stock-and barrel by the 20-40s. The Boomers' sin has been to create an aspirations monster.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149061-the-deflation-inflation-seesaw?source=feed#comment-590374 590374

On Jul 15 08:20 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to personal
> disposable income, increased modestly from 55% in 1960 to 65% by
> the mid-1980s. Then, over the next two decades, leverage proceeded
> to more than double, reaching an all-time high of 133% in 2007. That
> dramatic rise in debt was accompanied by a steady decline in the
> personal saving rate. The combination of higher debt and lower saving
> enabled personal consumption expenditures to grow faster than disposable
> income, providing a significant boost to U.S. economic growth over
> the period.
>
> In the long-run, however, consumption cannot grow faster than income
> because there is an upper limit to how much debt households can service,
> based on their incomes. For many U.S. households, current debt levels
> appear too high, as evidenced by the sharp rise in delinquencies
> and foreclosures in recent years. To achieve a sustainable level
> of debt relative to income, households may need to undergo a prolonged
> period of deleveraging, whereby debt is reduced and saving is increased.
>
> Going forward, it seems probable that many U.S. households will reduce
> their debt. If accomplished through increased saving, the deleveraging
> process could result in a substantial and prolonged slowdown in consumer
> spending relative to pre-recession growth rates. ("U.S. Household
> Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth
>
> What makes this cycle “different” is that three-quarters of the workers
> that were fired over the last year were let go on a permanent, not
> a temporary basis. A record 53% of the unemployed today are workers
> who were displaced permanently .
>
> But the strides in personal enrichment have come at great cost. The
> US consumer, long considered an inexhaustible resource, is tapped
> out. Without job security and access to easy credit; consumer spending
> will slow, prices will fall, demand will flag and the economy will
> tank. There won't be a recovery, because pre-crisis levels of consumption
> will not return; that much is certain.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:14:09 -0400

On Jul 15 08:20 PM conceptwizard wrote:

> U.S. household leverage, as measured by the ratio of debt to personal
> disposable income, increased modestly from 55% in 1960 to 65% by
> the mid-1980s. Then, over the next two decades, leverage proceeded
> to more than double, reaching an all-time high of 133% in 2007. That
> dramatic rise in debt was accompanied by a steady decline in the
> personal saving rate. The combination of higher debt and lower saving
> enabled personal consumption expenditures to grow faster than disposable
> income, providing a significant boost to U.S. economic growth over
> the period.
>
> In the long-run, however, consumption cannot grow faster than income
> because there is an upper limit to how much debt households can service,
> based on their incomes. For many U.S. households, current debt levels
> appear too high, as evidenced by the sharp rise in delinquencies
> and foreclosures in recent years. To achieve a sustainable level
> of debt relative to income, households may need to undergo a prolonged
> period of deleveraging, whereby debt is reduced and saving is increased.
>
> Going forward, it seems probable that many U.S. households will reduce
> their debt. If accomplished through increased saving, the deleveraging
> process could result in a substantial and prolonged slowdown in consumer
> spending relative to pre-recession growth rates. ("U.S. Household
> Deleveraging and Future Consumption Growth
>
> What makes this cycle “different” is that three-quarters of the workers
> that were fired over the last year were let go on a permanent, not
> a temporary basis. A record 53% of the unemployed today are workers
> who were displaced permanently .
>
> But the strides in personal enrichment have come at great cost. The
> US consumer, long considered an inexhaustible resource, is tapped
> out. Without job security and access to easy credit; consumer spending
> will slow, prices will fall, demand will flag and the economy will
> tank. There won't be a recovery, because pre-crisis levels of consumption
> will not return; that much is certain.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149133-four-reasons-why-the-british-pound-will-soar?source=feed#comment-590357 590357 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:07:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149138-fed-throws-a-wet-blanket-on-equities-markets?source=feed#comment-590343 590343 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 10:00:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149155-why-does-goldman-sachs-need-a-fed-exemption-for-var-calculations?source=feed#comment-590308 590308 Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:42:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149189-why-is-the-u-k-recovery-outpacing-the-u-s?source=feed#comment-590278 590278
What recovery? Getting worse at a slower pace is not a recovery. With specific regard to the UK, how on earth do you spin this week's employment numbers as a 'recovery'? As for property, maybe if you're living in central London you're seeing some stabilisation as foreign buyers go bargain-hunting, but there is no recovery in any part of the country I'm familiar with. Assuming a recovery by debating its apparent inconsistencies will not, I'm afraid, create one.]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:27:52 -0400
What recovery? Getting worse at a slower pace is not a recovery. With specific regard to the UK, how on earth do you spin this week's employment numbers as a 'recovery'? As for property, maybe if you're living in central London you're seeing some stabilisation as foreign buyers go bargain-hunting, but there is no recovery in any part of the country I'm familiar with. Assuming a recovery by debating its apparent inconsistencies will not, I'm afraid, create one.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/149192-don-t-be-fooled-earnings-not-sales-are-what-truly-matter?source=feed#comment-590259 590259
By the way, how many quarters-worth of low-hanging fruit is there on the cost side before sustainable revenue growth is going to be necessary to provide the level of earnings the current market is now discounting?]]> Thu, 16 Jul 2009 09:19:46 -0400
By the way, how many quarters-worth of low-hanging fruit is there on the cost side before sustainable revenue growth is going to be necessary to provide the level of earnings the current market is now discounting?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144390-u-k-housing-still-a-risky-buy?source=feed#comment-556037 556037 Sun, 21 Jun 2009 10:16:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144377-distilling-the-economic-data-no-recovery-news?source=feed#comment-555974 555974
From all of the detailed analysis, one relatively banal statement stands out: "Real recovery is impossible while home values keep declining as Joe feels his net worth disappearing and controls spending."

Not only is this true, it actually goes to the heart of the problem: many Americans (and this applies in other English-speaking countries as well) cannot sustain their current lifestyles in the absence of a debt-fuelled asset bubble. It has been far more profitable for corporate America to run an economic model based on debt and bubbles rather than on rising real wages and meaningful saving.

The model is utterly shot. Regretably, an elite focused entirely on the election cycle or the next financial quarter/year-end bonus is intent on papering over the structural cracks rather than on fixing them.]]> Sun, 21 Jun 2009 09:42:31 -0400
From all of the detailed analysis, one relatively banal statement stands out: "Real recovery is impossible while home values keep declining as Joe feels his net worth disappearing and controls spending."

Not only is this true, it actually goes to the heart of the problem: many Americans (and this applies in other English-speaking countries as well) cannot sustain their current lifestyles in the absence of a debt-fuelled asset bubble. It has been far more profitable for corporate America to run an economic model based on debt and bubbles rather than on rising real wages and meaningful saving.

The model is utterly shot. Regretably, an elite focused entirely on the election cycle or the next financial quarter/year-end bonus is intent on papering over the structural cracks rather than on fixing them.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144193-5-reasons-to-avoid-the-gold-rush?source=feed#comment-554215 554215
1. This paragraph could as easily be applied to any number of widely traded equities given today's 'accounting standards'. None more so than banks.
2. The same applies to any traded investment - witness last autumn's indiscriminate selling of equities.
3. TIPS are exposed to fraudulent CPI calculations; many non-USD fiat currencies are as flawed as the US in the sense that they are managed by central banks intent on devaluing them against real assets.
4. This paragraph could apply to any investment.
5. Any facts to back up this assertion?

I am not a gold-bug; I hold some simply as 'insurance'. I respect the opinion of those such as you who see it as a 'barbarous relic' (although I personally would apply that term to Citibank shares sooner than to gold). However, the arguments you use are exceptionally thin.]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 15:06:58 -0400
1. This paragraph could as easily be applied to any number of widely traded equities given today's 'accounting standards'. None more so than banks.
2. The same applies to any traded investment - witness last autumn's indiscriminate selling of equities.
3. TIPS are exposed to fraudulent CPI calculations; many non-USD fiat currencies are as flawed as the US in the sense that they are managed by central banks intent on devaluing them against real assets.
4. This paragraph could apply to any investment.
5. Any facts to back up this assertion?

I am not a gold-bug; I hold some simply as 'insurance'. I respect the opinion of those such as you who see it as a 'barbarous relic' (although I personally would apply that term to Citibank shares sooner than to gold). However, the arguments you use are exceptionally thin.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144184-will-india-s-changes-bring-headwinds-for-gold?source=feed#comment-554203 554203 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:56:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144016-more-on-the-reverse-convert-scam?source=feed#comment-554189 554189
Fair point. But for folks with a strong stomach there are some quite interesting possibilities trading these types of product in the secondary market. For example, UBS has a traded CHF quanto instrument maturing autumn 2010 which yields 8% annualised whilst exposing capital to the upside or downside of the worst-performing index out of the SPX, Nikkei, or FTSE100. Interesting play for the bottom of the next downleg. I mentioned the 'strong stomach' bit already, didn't I?]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:50:21 -0400
Fair point. But for folks with a strong stomach there are some quite interesting possibilities trading these types of product in the secondary market. For example, UBS has a traded CHF quanto instrument maturing autumn 2010 which yields 8% annualised whilst exposing capital to the upside or downside of the worst-performing index out of the SPX, Nikkei, or FTSE100. Interesting play for the bottom of the next downleg. I mentioned the 'strong stomach' bit already, didn't I?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144035-u-k-banks-are-too-big?source=feed#comment-554172 554172 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:41:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144133-british-airways-focuses-on-survival?source=feed#comment-554166 554166 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:38:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144006-why-turkey-s-etf-could-be-on-the-mend?source=feed#comment-554148 554148 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:24:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144123-is-perception-reality?source=feed#comment-554093 554093 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:45:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144157-inflation-vs-deflation-what-are-investors-facing?source=feed#comment-554086 554086
I do. More precisely, I think you might be treating as a mistake something which in fact is an objective.]]> Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:35:08 -0400
I do. More precisely, I think you might be treating as a mistake something which in fact is an objective.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143683-eurozone-pays-the-price-for-pursuing-paper-wealth?source=feed#comment-550638 550638
US and UK are spared bubbles and recessions, then???

"In conclusion, let's return to the examples of Ireland and Spain. Both countries, burdened with an inadequate Euro-zone monetary framework and a flawed banking sector, allowed the manufacture of paper wealth to out-strip real economic growth by a dangerous margin."

Couldn't happen in the US or the UK???

Sorry, but this article is just another in an endless stream of Euro-bashing from the Anglo-American school of monetary and fiscal incontinence.]]> Wed, 17 Jun 2009 14:04:00 -0400
US and UK are spared bubbles and recessions, then???

"In conclusion, let's return to the examples of Ireland and Spain. Both countries, burdened with an inadequate Euro-zone monetary framework and a flawed banking sector, allowed the manufacture of paper wealth to out-strip real economic growth by a dangerous margin."

Couldn't happen in the US or the UK???

Sorry, but this article is just another in an endless stream of Euro-bashing from the Anglo-American school of monetary and fiscal incontinence.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/143341-don-t-fight-the-guys-who-have-the-power-to-print-money?source=feed#comment-548999 548999 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:13:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143357-bearish-on-equities-big-mistake?source=feed#comment-548973 548973 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:02:48 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143420-more-dollar-schizophrenics?source=feed#comment-548956 548956 Tue, 16 Jun 2009 13:53:58 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/143051-bric-or-crib?source=feed#comment-547479 547479
Wouldn't be talking about the type of transparency we see in the S&P ES half an hour before opening, and on the SPX when the stick-save special decides to run in the afternoon, would you? As for GS, they might well have invented the BRIC acronym to sell a story, but compared to what they do to (not 'in', but 'to') US markets every trading day that's a pretty insignificant 'crime'.]]> Mon, 15 Jun 2009 14:26:41 -0400
Wouldn't be talking about the type of transparency we see in the S&P ES half an hour before opening, and on the SPX when the stick-save special decides to run in the afternoon, would you? As for GS, they might well have invented the BRIC acronym to sell a story, but compared to what they do to (not 'in', but 'to') US markets every trading day that's a pretty insignificant 'crime'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/142846-u-k-outlook-recession-might-be-over?source=feed#comment-545135 545135 Sat, 13 Jun 2009 10:53:23 -0400