All the bullish cases for gold seem to assume we're about to enter a period of hyper-inflation. With a global credit crunch in play I don't see that happening. Homeowners can't treat their mortgage like an ATM anymore, the stock market is declining, banks aren't lending to each other, etc... The fed rate may be low, but if nobody can get credit it doesn't really matter.
Where are all these inflationary dollars going to come from?
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Lets say a normal stock was at 100; went up 10% one day, then down 10% the next:
100 * 1.1 = 110
110 * 0.9 = 99 ( A 1% loss, as explained above )
Now if you double the losses & gains:
100 * 1.2 = 120
120 * 0.8 = 96 ( A 4% loss as explained above )
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Where are all these inflationary dollars going to come from?