Kobayashi Maru

4 Comments

    • As With Fertilizer Commodities, POT Bubbles [view article]
      All you bubbleheads keep ignoring the fact that POT and all of the
      other have CONTRACTS for the rest of the year. The contracts with
      Brazil, India and China are DONE. Forward EPS is all but in the bag.
      And you can bet that India and China won't make the same mistake
      twice with waiting until the last minute to negotiate their deals for
      2009. Same price for 2009 at minimum, or slightly more. Either way,
      CanPotEx is well in control.

      There may very well be a price bubble - I'll even agree with you that
      there is. However, the oil "bubble" that we are in, started when
      Katrina hit. 5 years ago. Maybe it's taken a little longer for the price
      of black gold to rise 100% (anyone remember $60 oil??), but the
      thirst needs to be slaked. Similarly, the fields need to be made
      fertile.

      The housing price bubble that just popped started before the tech bubble - 10 years ago.

      The tech bubble came and went in a matter of 4-5 years - 1996-2000, but it lasted that long. Call it a bubble. I agree!!!

      A bubble is formed during that period in which demand outstrips
      supply and the psychology of buy now or pay more later enters.
      Regardless of the market cap (so what!!) of the Ferts right now, the
      need (demand) is real. People seem to want to eat. Go figure.

      The currently available supply (the rate they are pulling the stuff out
      of the ground and putting it on barges) is limited. In the mean time,
      POT, MOS, AGU and all of the others will continue to make hay while
      the sun is shining for at least the next few years. (I love the few ag
      jokes I can inject like that!)

      If the bubble pops as new supply comes on line in 3-5 years, I can
      live with that. In the mean time, if they can get $1K a tonne, please,
      bubble me!

      In the mean time bubbleheads, a supply and demand imbalance
      exists, prices are rising whether it is right or not, and the pricing power
      of these companies for the next 24-48 months favors the sellers, not
      the buyers.

      People are going to eat. They can reduce their fuel consumption marginally, but choose generally not to at this point.

      When gasoline becomes extravagant, folks will STILL ride their bikes
      to get food to eat. Food grown with FERTS, by farmers that need to
      increase and keep their yield per acre as high as possible.

      Be a bubblehead. Just be an informed bubblehead!       Apr 30 05:42 PM
    • Options Traders Call Potash the "New Crude" [view article]
      Spot on Gunslinger! Getting tired of the talking heads that haven't done their research.

      From what I can see in the Wednesday press release, POT is essentially 'sold out' of any further appreciable capacity for the year.
      The beauty is they sold out at 3 times last years prices.

      Uralkai in Russia already indicated the $1,000/tonne number for spot is likely - as Gunslinger noted.

      Unlike Aramco, people don't need to drive their cars. They do need to eat. China stepped up to prevent to food riots that are going on in the Phillipines and elsewhere - they understand the economics.

      TTM PE's are meaningless - this stock is going to be the one that breaks the rules of technical charting. Rise $14 in one day and only give back $3.71 the next? Hyperbolic, parabolic - either way, it's getting my systolic going!       Apr 17 11:23 PM
    • Options Trader: Monday Outlook [view article]
      DON'T blame POT for higher farm or commodity prices Phil! The cost of fertilizer returns a minimum of 3.5:1 higher productivity yield on a crop, and often more depending upon the type of plant.

      The fert complex price increases add about .03 to .10 cents to a bushel of a crop - given that a bushel of corn can sweeten about 400 cans of your favorite soft drink, or a bushel of grain can make several hundred loaves of bread ... try to do some research before you shoot from the hip and hit the wrong target.

      Many people trying to improve their lifestyle - THAT is why commodities are going north in a hurry.       Apr 15 08:29 AM
    • Mosaic, CF Industries: Fertilizer Stocks in a Bull Trend [view article]
      It's a hungry and growing hungrier world. 2 billion people in China and India want to start eating more protien. 10 pounds of grain to make 1 pound of protein - the fert complex is at the beginning of a 3 - 5 year cycle and going north. Correction? HAH!!! The correction will be when forward PE's catch up to the huge growth. Apr 13 02:58 PM
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