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  • GM: Disaster?  [View article]
    i agree with your thesis. my only question is why is a large multinational company unable to hedge for exchange rate fluctuations. it is not rocket science.
    Feb 4, 2016. 01:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM: Disaster?  [View article]
    that is, iff you believe his me his 30-40% devaluation number sounds like bs.
    Feb 4, 2016. 12:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone: Despite The Risks, It Looks Considerably Cheap  [View article]
    "Although the housing market has made a significant comeback since the financial crisis hit in 2008, many are anticipating a decline in the housing market in months and years to come. The key driver behind this speculation is the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates in the coming months, making borrowing more expensive, and therefore homeowner's loans more expensive."

    Some pundits believe this but there is no data supporting this thesis as far as I am aware of. In fact mortgage rates do not follow FED rates, (see The factor that will significantly influence mortgage rates is inflation. And, there are no signs yet of a significant increase in inflation anytime soon. So if the slowly increasing FED rate is the biggest risk for BX then it is a bargain at present prices.
    Jan 31, 2016. 05:38 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Of U.S. Income Is Over $125,000 Per Year  [View article]
    @Jason Cawley:

    "Anyone think it is unbelievable that typical middle class Americans own houses worth $160,000 or more?"

    I did not research it but I take your word for it. However, there are VERY few middle class Amerians who own their home free of mortgage, hence even if they have a house worth $160k they do not "own" that $160k worth of house, some or most of it is owned by the bank. Furthermore, you keep repeating that 1/3rd of the population earning between $50k and $200k statistics. I am not sue where it comes form but based on the wage statistics for 2014 from Social Security online that category includes roughly 42M wage earners out of a total roughly 113M wage earners. Dividing the numbers result in 26% not 33%.
    Jan 31, 2016. 05:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Of U.S. Income Is Over $125,000 Per Year  [View article]

    $500 a month for rent? Where? Where I live you cannot find an apartment below about $1200 a month, and that is a studio. The author is certainly wrong to classify a family with $50K gross family income as middle class.
    Jan 31, 2016. 04:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Half Of U.S. Income Is Over $125,000 Per Year  [View article]

    I generally agree with your comments and arguments here except that Sanders is supported only, or even mostly, by "kids" under 20. If you have ever gone to one of his rallies you would know otherwise. The registration tables for Sanders at the farmers market I frequent are manned by people in their 60-s, as just one data point. Yes, he has little chance to get elected to be our next president, but one has to admit that he has gone much farther and gained much more support (and collected much more money from small individual campaign contributions) than most of us thought he would. In my opinion he has a small but non-zero chance to become the Democratic nominee if Hillary stumbles (e.g. if she is indicted on her e-mail issues, etc.); and if the GOP is dumb enough to nominate Trump or Cruz he may well win the election. I strongly disagree with the author of this piece that everything is just peachy in our union. The situation is decidedly pre-revolutionary, they way I see it, and the revolution may come from either the right or the left. The political establishment of both parties clearly have done an inadequate job during the past 15 years and a large part of the population is angry, with some justification.
    Jan 31, 2016. 04:40 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Quarter, Another Win For Blackstone  [View article]
    Same here. BX became my second largest position, KKR is very small in comparison.
    Jan 29, 2016. 12:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Has Serious Problems  [View article]
    LOL! That was funny :-).
    Jan 27, 2016. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The One Key Indicator That Will Determine Market Direction  [View article]
    I actually think it is a great post...
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Was Wrong On IBM, But What Lies Ahead?  [View article]
    No, thank you. I may consider it under $100 AND if Rometty and her team are gone.
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Was Wrong On IBM, But What Lies Ahead?  [View article]
    Rometty also "cleaned out" much of the outstanding engineering staff that created IBM's vaunted technology and their mote. IBM will not survive if she and her team is not fired pretty soon.
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett Was Wrong On IBM, But What Lies Ahead?  [View article]

    You do not seem to understand: it is not the one lost bid. It is the reason why they lost it, which was "significantly inferior technology". That type of "performance" is the death of any tech company. IBM is not a Buffett type deep value company, it is a tech company, and if a tech company starts losing its edge and moat it is dying, albeit slowly. Just like HP. If the board does not wait too long to fire Rommetty and her team IBM may survive.
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Finally Admits Moore's Law Has Slowed, So Now What?  [View article]
    Sooo.... what is your "right price"??
    Jan 22, 2016. 12:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Of The Biggest Opportunities For GE In 25 Years Arrives  [View article]
    Well, sounds good, BUT the fly in the ointment is that the Iranian regime is extremely antagonistic to the US and they will try to buy everything from non-US sources. They already announced their intention to buy 100+ planes from Airbus. Hence, betting on GE based on its expected Iran business in the next 5 years looks like a fool's errand to me. I like and own GE, but for other reasons.
    Jan 19, 2016. 06:58 AM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Mobile Device Capitulation  [View article]
    "Based on conference papers TSMC 7nm BEOL will have a slight process advantage over Intel 7nm."

    LOL! Who believes what conference papers say?
    Jan 18, 2016. 01:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment