johnnybigspenda's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/177733/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/166928/comments?source=feed#comment-720082 720082 Mon, 19 Oct 2009 00:15:40 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/165573/comments?source=feed#comment-709289 709289 Thu, 08 Oct 2009 17:24:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163415/comments?source=feed#comment-691716 691716
Now: cushion the fall by stealing future demand by offering as much as it takes in tax credits to prop up home prices

Mid term: print lots of money, buy their own debt, spend money, make it 100% clear to everyone that they will do anything to prop the economy up....anything to avoid a deflationary spiral

Longer term: inflation (dollar devaluation?) causes home prices to inflate, debt becomes worth less

Wait a minute... don't we need WAGE inflation for this plan to work?

Not sure how that is going to happen? Has anyone read an hypotheses on this?


On Sep 25 02:18 PM a fat panda wrote:

> John, Increasing the tax credit will do just what the original tax
> credit did : push demand forward. This isn't increasing demand. You
> are simply seeing sales moved from 2010 into 2009.
>
> I see that you saw some of your data on CNBC. I am leery of lumping
> houses together across price and region to make any conclusions.
> Here is what I am seeing in my zipcode. Houses For Sale Vs Under
> Contract. Under 250K it is 3 to 1. Under 450K it is 6 to 1. Under
> 800K it is 8 to 1. Between 800 and up the ratio is 42 to 1.
>
> If you are comforted by the 8 to 1 in the 450-800K pocket, the majority
> of these homes are new, many of which are not listed on MLS. It gets
> better. There are partially built neighborhoods where the property
> is committed to building another luxury home that no one wants. This
> pocket also has a lot of rentals of homes which were previously for
> sale but could not clear the market.]]> Sat, 26 Sep 2009 00:13:12 -0400
Now: cushion the fall by stealing future demand by offering as much as it takes in tax credits to prop up home prices

Mid term: print lots of money, buy their own debt, spend money, make it 100% clear to everyone that they will do anything to prop the economy up....anything to avoid a deflationary spiral

Longer term: inflation (dollar devaluation?) causes home prices to inflate, debt becomes worth less

Wait a minute... don't we need WAGE inflation for this plan to work?

Not sure how that is going to happen? Has anyone read an hypotheses on this?


On Sep 25 02:18 PM a fat panda wrote:

> John, Increasing the tax credit will do just what the original tax
> credit did : push demand forward. This isn't increasing demand. You
> are simply seeing sales moved from 2010 into 2009.
>
> I see that you saw some of your data on CNBC. I am leery of lumping
> houses together across price and region to make any conclusions.
> Here is what I am seeing in my zipcode. Houses For Sale Vs Under
> Contract. Under 250K it is 3 to 1. Under 450K it is 6 to 1. Under
> 800K it is 8 to 1. Between 800 and up the ratio is 42 to 1.
>
> If you are comforted by the 8 to 1 in the 450-800K pocket, the majority
> of these homes are new, many of which are not listed on MLS. It gets
> better. There are partially built neighborhoods where the property
> is committed to building another luxury home that no one wants. This
> pocket also has a lot of rentals of homes which were previously for
> sale but could not clear the market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148250/comments?source=feed#comment-585243 585243
just by introducing the possibility that energy futures could become regulated, they have introduced 'risk' that any current or potential investor must take into account before placing their bet.

this will serve to dampen the speculation by eliminating some number of investors. speculators will look to other unregulated trades instead.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 01:35:13 -0400
just by introducing the possibility that energy futures could become regulated, they have introduced 'risk' that any current or potential investor must take into account before placing their bet.

this will serve to dampen the speculation by eliminating some number of investors. speculators will look to other unregulated trades instead.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/135655/comments?source=feed#comment-492755 492755 Wed, 06 May 2009 17:26:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/133689/comments?source=feed#comment-481766 481766
I personally don't think that prices today are sustainable yet, but I wouldn't expect it to be as simple as straight down or straight up... there will also be a bumpy period.]]> Tue, 28 Apr 2009 19:17:34 -0400
I personally don't think that prices today are sustainable yet, but I wouldn't expect it to be as simple as straight down or straight up... there will also be a bumpy period.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127061/comments?source=feed#comment-434290 434290 Sat, 21 Mar 2009 01:40:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/117945/comments?source=feed#comment-373486 373486
seriously though, thanks for pointing that out. I wish common sense like yours had a voice as loud as the doom and gloomers.]]> Mon, 02 Feb 2009 12:38:58 -0500
seriously though, thanks for pointing that out. I wish common sense like yours had a voice as loud as the doom and gloomers.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106073/comments?source=feed#comment-306717 306717
What if, as a result of Government Spending, we as a country emerged as a more efficient, higher productivity, more environmentally friendly country? This is possible. If the government was to substantially increase spending/investment in infrastructure such as GREEN technologies (solar, wind, nuclear, water purification, mass transportation, cleaning up environmentally impacted areas, modernization / retrofitting of older brown technologies ect ect) we could emerge with an infrastructure that will supply businesses with lower cost power, better transportation and a lower cost structure over all.

This would supply people with JOBS today. This would increase C. This would rebuild America's competitive advantage. This would create a greener world and a better tomorrow.


And I'm not even a tree hugger... I think this makes sense from $ and cents perspective.]]> Sat, 15 Nov 2008 12:11:01 -0500
What if, as a result of Government Spending, we as a country emerged as a more efficient, higher productivity, more environmentally friendly country? This is possible. If the government was to substantially increase spending/investment in infrastructure such as GREEN technologies (solar, wind, nuclear, water purification, mass transportation, cleaning up environmentally impacted areas, modernization / retrofitting of older brown technologies ect ect) we could emerge with an infrastructure that will supply businesses with lower cost power, better transportation and a lower cost structure over all.

This would supply people with JOBS today. This would increase C. This would rebuild America's competitive advantage. This would create a greener world and a better tomorrow.


And I'm not even a tree hugger... I think this makes sense from $ and cents perspective.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95570/comments?source=feed#comment-255283 255283 Mon, 15 Sep 2008 17:28:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93550/comments?source=feed#comment-244972 244972
House prices were bid up with this type of expectation in mind...combined with very cheap capital.

Expectations have changed. (obviously) People now expect a house that is purchased today will fall in value 10, 15, 25% depending on who you talk to. Even a house purchased 'below market value' somehow falls into this expectation.... so the tide will sink all ships.

But wait, there's hope. As buyers (and we know there are lots of them waiting for the right time... pent up demand) expectations change... even to an expectation of 'flat / no growth' for the next couple of years, it will be enough to start the process of restoring confidence that a house is not a place where you lose $50K just by signing on.

The trick would be, are you lucky enough to time the market? ie. buy when people expect declines, just before the expectation turns to 'flat / no growth'. The *deals* are during the negative growth expectation phase.

All of this depends on financing availability. If the cost of capital increases, the sum of the cash flows = less NPV . Lets hope the banks can find a way to start lending money again in the near future.]]> Wed, 03 Sep 2008 19:31:27 -0400
House prices were bid up with this type of expectation in mind...combined with very cheap capital.

Expectations have changed. (obviously) People now expect a house that is purchased today will fall in value 10, 15, 25% depending on who you talk to. Even a house purchased 'below market value' somehow falls into this expectation.... so the tide will sink all ships.

But wait, there's hope. As buyers (and we know there are lots of them waiting for the right time... pent up demand) expectations change... even to an expectation of 'flat / no growth' for the next couple of years, it will be enough to start the process of restoring confidence that a house is not a place where you lose $50K just by signing on.

The trick would be, are you lucky enough to time the market? ie. buy when people expect declines, just before the expectation turns to 'flat / no growth'. The *deals* are during the negative growth expectation phase.

All of this depends on financing availability. If the cost of capital increases, the sum of the cash flows = less NPV . Lets hope the banks can find a way to start lending money again in the near future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93449/comments?source=feed#comment-243377 243377 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 15:53:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89613/comments?source=feed#comment-224930 224930 Thu, 07 Aug 2008 09:46:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72762/comments?source=feed#comment-152637 152637 Thu, 17 Apr 2008 23:58:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/72024/comments?source=feed#comment-150114 150114
Could be clear sailing from here on.... tough to say how deep their problems are.

My guess is that if they were truly significant they would have alerted. I think they just cleaned house because its en vogue right now.]]> Sun, 13 Apr 2008 22:51:04 -0400
Could be clear sailing from here on.... tough to say how deep their problems are.

My guess is that if they were truly significant they would have alerted. I think they just cleaned house because its en vogue right now.]]>