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Seth Warner
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An independent global macro analyst with 40+ years' market experience and a subscriber base for his publication "Before the New$," now in its 10th year. Also publishes the free monthly slide show "Buy low - Sell high" and "SPYmaster II," a trading service covering... More
My company:
Warner Financial Select, LLC
My blog:
Before the New$
My book:
The Little Green Book on the Stock Market
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  • S&P 500 Seems Likely To Test 2007 All-time High

    Some thoughts about SPY.

    Our short-term algorithm SPYmaster II went long SPY five days ago at 147.92 just after SPY broke through its old 2012 high, a feat it had tried to accomplish in each of the five previous trading sessions. The chart pattern built since last September seems to be a quasi head and shoulders reversal which should take the market up to test its 2007 all-time high near 157. Fundamentally, it would seem as long as the Fed stays with its zero rate policy there should be ample funds on the demand side to make this happen. Then we shall see.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Jan 23 6:38 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Mid-month Global Macro Update

    Dear Subscribers to Before the New$;

    Events of the past several weeks have catalyzed changes in trends in a number of markets in several asset classes. While it is difficult to make investment sense of the frenetic daily news, our medium and longer-term work can be helpful. I have attached three charts which highlight the most important changes:


    All the news and PIMCO’s Bill Gross aside, we have picked up buy fractals on Canadian and U.S. 10 Year and 30 Year bonds. We would now add to these positions.
    U.S. Dollar Index


    The U.S. $ Index has stopped its sideways fidgeting around and broken its two year uptrend. We would sell dollars, hedge $ exposures and sell the U.S. $ short. Could do this by going long SFR, EURO (or Rubles or Renminbi) or shorting the dollar index.
    U.S. Dollar Index


    We have picked up medium-term fractal sell signals in 12 more markets: Australia, Austria, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan and the U.K. These are also reflected in a sell fractal on the D.J. World Index (chart enclosed). These of course confirm our view at the beginning of the month in Buy low – Sell high that it is a good time to reduce equity market exposure.


    Things are also turning a bit weak here, but as always it is hard to generalize.

    Amongst the softs where we already had medium-term sell fractals on soybeans and wheat we have picked up fractal sell signals on cocoa and sugar and would stop buying O.J. and lighten up on corn.

    Amongst hard commodities we have a fresh fractal sell signal on copper, but it is holding on its uptrend, and we, too, would hold for now. On the other hand we do not yet have a fractal sell on platinum, but it has broken its uptrend, triggering our last BTN issue sell recommendation (chart enclosed). We are also inclined to stop buying and still hold gold but lighten up on silver.



    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Mar 19 2:39 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Commodities continue to lead the global asset parade in February 2011
    Some think we are too heavily dependent on technical analysis to make it to the big leagues on Seeking Alpha, but empirical evidence over a long period is good enough for us and our subscribers.
    For an example of some of the best global macro top-down multi asset class work, see:
    Feb 18 10:44 AM | Link | Comment!
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  • The recent breakout in $SPY seems to confirm a quasi head and shoulders reversal pattern that counts up to near its old 2007 high of 157.52
    Jan 20, 2013
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