aquaculture's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/178046/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/129964-applied-materials-can-they-make-it-in-solar?source=feed#comment-455494 455494 Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:06:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129570-lithium-ion-batteries-9-years-of-price-stagnation?source=feed#comment-454809 454809 But the underlying strategy is as simple as it is effective: divide et impera....]]> Tue, 07 Apr 2009 10:41:57 -0400 But the underlying strategy is as simple as it is effective: divide et impera....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129570-lithium-ion-batteries-9-years-of-price-stagnation?source=feed#comment-453894 453894 If it fails on a hot parking lot: you come back to a car with a battery that is lost. An insurance company would cover the risk, but at a cost.......]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 15:58:32 -0400 If it fails on a hot parking lot: you come back to a car with a battery that is lost. An insurance company would cover the risk, but at a cost.......]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129621-oil-as-money-and-the-decline-of-energy-earnings?source=feed#comment-453383 453383 Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:02:18 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129621-oil-as-money-and-the-decline-of-energy-earnings?source=feed#comment-453372 453372 Oil has been the primary energy source, supporting the pyramid and will be untill the end of this technology cycle. Your 12:1 eroei for oil average cannot be correct. 12:1 is the average for all energy sources (eg. Windpower has 20:1)
With all the water pumped up in S. Arabia eroei there is ~10:1.
Average oil eroei now about 3:1. Tar sands about 1:1. or even less.
Now these are all using a standardized metric.
By your definition we have to include eg. protecting the shipping lanes and war effort in oil eroei equation. Then oil eroi has been negative over your charts history. Hence the decline.

Cook's scheme would be a very sophisticated form of bartertrade.]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 10:56:55 -0400 Oil has been the primary energy source, supporting the pyramid and will be untill the end of this technology cycle. Your 12:1 eroei for oil average cannot be correct. 12:1 is the average for all energy sources (eg. Windpower has 20:1)
With all the water pumped up in S. Arabia eroei there is ~10:1.
Average oil eroei now about 3:1. Tar sands about 1:1. or even less.
Now these are all using a standardized metric.
By your definition we have to include eg. protecting the shipping lanes and war effort in oil eroei equation. Then oil eroi has been negative over your charts history. Hence the decline.

Cook's scheme would be a very sophisticated form of bartertrade.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129570-lithium-ion-batteries-9-years-of-price-stagnation?source=feed#comment-453053 453053 But there is every reason to believe that there may not be any improvement in this for the next 20 years:
-U.S gov. debt causing inflation.
-globalisation and overpopulation -devaluing people.
-technological acceleration, keeping wages further down.

Therefore Americans -except for select elite- will simply not be able to afford Li-ion powered cars, even if mass production of lithiumcarbonate would be possible/desirable, which it is not:

-not environmentally sound. It would cause futher irreparible ecological damage to ecosystem.
-world demand from portable electr, light ev (bikes) will absorp much of planned production increases.
-realistic achievable production will be sufficient for only a small fraction of transportation needs.
-most lithiumcarbonate reserves in geographical areas hostile to U.S. politics, possibility of new conflicts of interest.

I think gov. loans to A123 etc. are very elitist. How does that help the American people?



]]> Mon, 06 Apr 2009 07:39:42 -0400 But there is every reason to believe that there may not be any improvement in this for the next 20 years:
-U.S gov. debt causing inflation.
-globalisation and overpopulation -devaluing people.
-technological acceleration, keeping wages further down.

Therefore Americans -except for select elite- will simply not be able to afford Li-ion powered cars, even if mass production of lithiumcarbonate would be possible/desirable, which it is not:

-not environmentally sound. It would cause futher irreparible ecological damage to ecosystem.
-world demand from portable electr, light ev (bikes) will absorp much of planned production increases.
-realistic achievable production will be sufficient for only a small fraction of transportation needs.
-most lithiumcarbonate reserves in geographical areas hostile to U.S. politics, possibility of new conflicts of interest.

I think gov. loans to A123 etc. are very elitist. How does that help the American people?



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129515-could-the-dow-sink-another-50-by-2012?source=feed#comment-452176 452176 Of course this also creates enormous opportunities for new wealth creation.]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 09:00:32 -0400 Of course this also creates enormous opportunities for new wealth creation.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129515-could-the-dow-sink-another-50-by-2012?source=feed#comment-452141 452141 At the end of THIS tech cycle, the weakest fundament of the DOW is a primary energy source (upon which all others are based) who's EROI -energetic return on investment- has become negative, if you define it smartly.
We remember the "America is addicted to oil" phrase.
Time is energy and the clock is running backwards.
50% off could very well be, if current trends continue.]]> Sun, 05 Apr 2009 08:30:04 -0400 At the end of THIS tech cycle, the weakest fundament of the DOW is a primary energy source (upon which all others are based) who's EROI -energetic return on investment- has become negative, if you define it smartly.
We remember the "America is addicted to oil" phrase.
Time is energy and the clock is running backwards.
50% off could very well be, if current trends continue.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129454-five-top-solar-power-stocks?source=feed#comment-452083 452083 Sun, 05 Apr 2009 06:13:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-451895 451895 Sat, 04 Apr 2009 18:23:16 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-451892 451892 strategicpolymers.com

And BT is not a polymer.

And no not off-topic. Cleantech, batteries and (Optimism)^........]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 18:00:20 -0400 strategicpolymers.com

And BT is not a polymer.

And no not off-topic. Cleantech, batteries and (Optimism)^........]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129373-solar-s-dead-cat-bounce-may-be-over?source=feed#comment-451864 451864 source: Sankei Shimbun Japan daily:

'Japan to include 2 trillion yen -20 billion $- in spending to mount solar panels on public buildings as part of a stimulus package to be announced in april.']]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 16:17:24 -0400 source: Sankei Shimbun Japan daily:

'Japan to include 2 trillion yen -20 billion $- in spending to mount solar panels on public buildings as part of a stimulus package to be announced in april.']]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-451782 451782
Above you gave link and said: (quote) "replaced with a material having dielectric constant about 6000"
Highest known polymer dielectric is a little over 50.
No 100 x energy density in that either...

]]> Sat, 04 Apr 2009 14:00:19 -0400
Above you gave link and said: (quote) "replaced with a material having dielectric constant about 6000"
Highest known polymer dielectric is a little over 50.
No 100 x energy density in that either...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129373-solar-s-dead-cat-bounce-may-be-over?source=feed#comment-451245 451245 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 16:46:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/129375-when-hedge-funds-embrace-regulation?source=feed#comment-451158 451158 Fri, 03 Apr 2009 15:27:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-450495 450495
No you have not answered any criticism regards 1-ltl.
No I do not accept that your tech is credible.
The opposite!! (now that its clear youre not following the route I outlined above)

Its not a matter of me not understanding self-healing. The problem is you not understanding dielectric saturation (strong electron-ion correlation as field stengthens, leading to cancellation between ionic- and electronic polarization in ceramic dielectric!)
K varies as ~1/E over much of voltage range resulting in approx. LINEAR increase in energy density with field.
You believe (common mistake!!!!!) using a 6000 K material will give you 100 x energy density.
You calculate total energy stored as 1/2 CV^2 without reporting any breakthrough on saturation issue. This invalid calculation 1/2 KE^2 then gives (.5)(8.85x10^-12 F/m)(6000)(10.6^8 V/m)= ~3x10^8 J/m3 = ~300 J/cc.
That's optimism squared!
In reality you're lucky to get 2J/cc with the link you gave...

Your website has been in the air a long time, yet:

-no patent (even though there are hundreds of US patents which make the same mistake out there -sometimes I wish the Swiss would examine all patents!)
-no energy storage measurements
-no permittivity versus field data

If you want to be succesfull in this field, the order to do things would be:
-to get a lot of Schaum's outlines, practice solving millions of problems incuding calculus.
-get mr Feynmans trilogy and complete at least part 1 and 2, be able to validate everything he says.
-then IF you get a good idea in the kitchen:
1.make it,
2. test it,
3. go to mr Peterson and get a patent,
4 get 3rd party verification of your measurements,
5 and THEN you can launch a website promising all the goodies to mankind.
And not the other way round...
]]> Fri, 03 Apr 2009 07:59:43 -0400
No you have not answered any criticism regards 1-ltl.
No I do not accept that your tech is credible.
The opposite!! (now that its clear youre not following the route I outlined above)

Its not a matter of me not understanding self-healing. The problem is you not understanding dielectric saturation (strong electron-ion correlation as field stengthens, leading to cancellation between ionic- and electronic polarization in ceramic dielectric!)
K varies as ~1/E over much of voltage range resulting in approx. LINEAR increase in energy density with field.
You believe (common mistake!!!!!) using a 6000 K material will give you 100 x energy density.
You calculate total energy stored as 1/2 CV^2 without reporting any breakthrough on saturation issue. This invalid calculation 1/2 KE^2 then gives (.5)(8.85x10^-12 F/m)(6000)(10.6^8 V/m)= ~3x10^8 J/m3 = ~300 J/cc.
That's optimism squared!
In reality you're lucky to get 2J/cc with the link you gave...

Your website has been in the air a long time, yet:

-no patent (even though there are hundreds of US patents which make the same mistake out there -sometimes I wish the Swiss would examine all patents!)
-no energy storage measurements
-no permittivity versus field data

If you want to be succesfull in this field, the order to do things would be:
-to get a lot of Schaum's outlines, practice solving millions of problems incuding calculus.
-get mr Feynmans trilogy and complete at least part 1 and 2, be able to validate everything he says.
-then IF you get a good idea in the kitchen:
1.make it,
2. test it,
3. go to mr Peterson and get a patent,
4 get 3rd party verification of your measurements,
5 and THEN you can launch a website promising all the goodies to mankind.
And not the other way round...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129055-why-is-first-solar-so-far-ahead-of-the-competition?source=feed#comment-449504 449504 I live in Europe so I should have written: the "European residential rooftop market".
Roofs are just too small here for the lower efficiency and since there generally are feed-inn-tariffs here.
The U.S represents 10% of the total pv market.
But I was not aware Solarcity uses First solar panels.
So thanks for the correction!

Yes there will be massive commercial installations for utilities.
And First solar could very well appreciate in value from here, and also for some time to come.
That said, looking at the enormous rampup in silicon from China, all i'm actualy saying is that the risk in First solars business model has increased significantly from the time where it was valued at >100 x PE. First solar only delivers about 6% of worldwide panels but still has a market cap larger than all other solars combined. I do not think that is justified at this time.

As to the true story of the -mandatory!-reclamatio... program and it's true cost for the company, that is a very long and complicated story.
I might do an article on First solar shortly. But I have some data not yet in.
Simply speaking: if you dump silicon on a landfill it simply becomes sand eventually.

But if you dump Cadmium telluride, what will happen then?
You dont want to know!
So this is not an option for FSLR. This is a disadvantage for FSLR. This means FSLR has to transport these heavy glass panels fiorm ALL over the world. They have to build the recycling (leeching) factories.etc.

Ps I am not short First solar myself yet, but I will be at some point if current trend keeps going.

Finally a visual reminder:
1366tech.com/v1/conten...
]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 12:57:38 -0400 I live in Europe so I should have written: the "European residential rooftop market".
Roofs are just too small here for the lower efficiency and since there generally are feed-inn-tariffs here.
The U.S represents 10% of the total pv market.
But I was not aware Solarcity uses First solar panels.
So thanks for the correction!

Yes there will be massive commercial installations for utilities.
And First solar could very well appreciate in value from here, and also for some time to come.
That said, looking at the enormous rampup in silicon from China, all i'm actualy saying is that the risk in First solars business model has increased significantly from the time where it was valued at >100 x PE. First solar only delivers about 6% of worldwide panels but still has a market cap larger than all other solars combined. I do not think that is justified at this time.

As to the true story of the -mandatory!-reclamatio... program and it's true cost for the company, that is a very long and complicated story.
I might do an article on First solar shortly. But I have some data not yet in.
Simply speaking: if you dump silicon on a landfill it simply becomes sand eventually.

But if you dump Cadmium telluride, what will happen then?
You dont want to know!
So this is not an option for FSLR. This is a disadvantage for FSLR. This means FSLR has to transport these heavy glass panels fiorm ALL over the world. They have to build the recycling (leeching) factories.etc.

Ps I am not short First solar myself yet, but I will be at some point if current trend keeps going.

Finally a visual reminder:
1366tech.com/v1/conten...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129151-options-trader-thursday-outlook?source=feed#comment-449290 449290 Read all about it in the XTRA!!!!!
XTRA!!!!!
Solarworld AG to bid on General motors inc. in stock swap deal.........
youtube.com/watch?v=uR...]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:57:08 -0400 Read all about it in the XTRA!!!!!
XTRA!!!!!
Solarworld AG to bid on General motors inc. in stock swap deal.........
youtube.com/watch?v=uR...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129112-no-longer-smoking-bp-solar-gets-out-of-cigs?source=feed#comment-449226 449226 1366tech.com/v1/conten...]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:31:03 -0400 1366tech.com/v1/conten...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129112-no-longer-smoking-bp-solar-gets-out-of-cigs?source=feed#comment-449209 449209 Too bad a majority for this cannot be found in congress.
Sad day for American workers...]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 10:24:34 -0400 Too bad a majority for this cannot be found in congress.
Sad day for American workers...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129104-wall-street-breakfast-must-know-news?source=feed#comment-448941 448941 Read all about it in the XTRA
Solarworld to bid for GM!!!!!!!!!!
youtube.com/watch?v=uR...]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 08:02:41 -0400 Read all about it in the XTRA
Solarworld to bid for GM!!!!!!!!!!
youtube.com/watch?v=uR...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128994-legal-complexities-as-the-automakers-restructure?source=feed#comment-448929 448929 Read all about it in the XTRA:
youtube.com/watch?v=uR...
]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 07:44:38 -0400 Read all about it in the XTRA:
youtube.com/watch?v=uR...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-448910 448910 youtube.com/watch?v=uR...]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 07:22:42 -0400 youtube.com/watch?v=uR...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/129055-why-is-first-solar-so-far-ahead-of-the-competition?source=feed#comment-448874 448874
FSLR is not so far ahead of the competition because silicon producers put an end to shortages by building more and more capacity.
FSLR has lowest efficiency products.
FSLR uses the extremely rare tellurium (more valuable than platinum) in solar panels-price is rising.
FSLR end product banned in largest market the E.U
FSLR has to reclaim/recycle panels at end of life, beware of these hidden costs on balance sheet.
FSLR is a monopolist and EU has fined monopolies in the past, a risk.
FSLR has highest installation cost.
FSLR lost rooftop market, is now concentrating on utilities
FSLR has highest sales costs.
FSLR has no control over its own destiny. If china -by increasing production lets silicon spot prices drop below $50/kg, FSLR is toast.

The term grid parity is meaningless (in fact a paradox) for FSLR, it is consticted by rare raw materials (can never supply grid demand) while silicon CAN supply every house and business in the U.S.

FSLR is featured on cover of Photon magazine this month: the shadow over FSLR.

Phillip Davis here on SA (top 5 watchlist) is short FSLR-
and long SPWR.

]]> Thu, 02 Apr 2009 06:10:30 -0400
FSLR is not so far ahead of the competition because silicon producers put an end to shortages by building more and more capacity.
FSLR has lowest efficiency products.
FSLR uses the extremely rare tellurium (more valuable than platinum) in solar panels-price is rising.
FSLR end product banned in largest market the E.U
FSLR has to reclaim/recycle panels at end of life, beware of these hidden costs on balance sheet.
FSLR is a monopolist and EU has fined monopolies in the past, a risk.
FSLR has highest installation cost.
FSLR lost rooftop market, is now concentrating on utilities
FSLR has highest sales costs.
FSLR has no control over its own destiny. If china -by increasing production lets silicon spot prices drop below $50/kg, FSLR is toast.

The term grid parity is meaningless (in fact a paradox) for FSLR, it is consticted by rare raw materials (can never supply grid demand) while silicon CAN supply every house and business in the U.S.

FSLR is featured on cover of Photon magazine this month: the shadow over FSLR.

Phillip Davis here on SA (top 5 watchlist) is short FSLR-
and long SPWR.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-448522 448522 I just wasted some 10 minutes looking at your renewed site.
To me meaningfull scientific statements -claims that you make- are a method of verification. Since no such method is in the air, your entire content (the rest) is meaningless to me.

That said, you claim 300J/cc. with ceramic/polymer material, about 10 x better than commercial and cheap ultra-cap in marketplace today.
This high energy density is possible -only in theory!- capped at about 400 J/cc as upper limit, in three phase composite with some nano scale fraction packed.
But achieving high breakdown strength is extremely difficult. For this you have to create a packing at nanoscale without defects, with some high order-a very difficult problem on which many labs are working today. And fusing doesnt help. In fact of the billion you manufacture one might come out right.
But if you have solved one of the toughest problems in nano kudos to you...

Good luck.
aqua
]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 18:18:40 -0400 I just wasted some 10 minutes looking at your renewed site.
To me meaningfull scientific statements -claims that you make- are a method of verification. Since no such method is in the air, your entire content (the rest) is meaningless to me.

That said, you claim 300J/cc. with ceramic/polymer material, about 10 x better than commercial and cheap ultra-cap in marketplace today.
This high energy density is possible -only in theory!- capped at about 400 J/cc as upper limit, in three phase composite with some nano scale fraction packed.
But achieving high breakdown strength is extremely difficult. For this you have to create a packing at nanoscale without defects, with some high order-a very difficult problem on which many labs are working today. And fusing doesnt help. In fact of the billion you manufacture one might come out right.
But if you have solved one of the toughest problems in nano kudos to you...

Good luck.
aqua
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-448227 448227 Where we can open a box with 4000 years of math history and hundreds of years of physics to prove you wrong.]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 14:39:15 -0400 Where we can open a box with 4000 years of math history and hundreds of years of physics to prove you wrong.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-448219 448219 Done any permittivity testing yet? I looked into patent. Fused but same problem as EEstor: high voltage, low energy density. Very low....]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 14:36:14 -0400 Done any permittivity testing yet? I looked into patent. Fused but same problem as EEstor: high voltage, low energy density. Very low....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-448094 448094 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 13:23:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128840-china-s-solar-stock-rally-avoid-being-burned?source=feed#comment-448070 448070 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 13:03:57 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128803-cleantech-optimism-squared-and-the-battery-industry?source=feed#comment-447873 447873 I like your articles. But I am capitalist. I want to make money.
Show me how.]]> Wed, 01 Apr 2009 10:28:52 -0400 I like your articles. But I am capitalist. I want to make money.
Show me how.]]>