aquaculture

Li-ion Battery Manufacturers: The Bleeding Edge of Energy Storage Technology

Also from the title of this article it would seem as if Li-ion is a looser technology.
Now take a look at the following data:

Netherlands EU (Population, 16 million) e-bike (95% Li-ion) sales data:(source: bovag):
2006: 45.000
2007: 90.000
2008: 120.000

e-bikes are racing towards 10% marketshare. They are simply hugely popular!

Now looking towards the future at less mature but increasingly affluent markets with similar bike densities eg China, India, Indonesia etc. its not hard to see billions of Li-ion packs being sold, and those who can deliver will certainly do well.

Li-ion Battery Manufacturers: The Bleeding Edge of Energy Storage Technology

market penetration probabilities that is...

Li-ion Battery Manufacturers: The Bleeding Edge of Energy Storage Technology

Chemical battery technology is risky and capital intensive. It also has the slowest price/performance improvement of all technologies.
The Merrill report mentions solar storage.
I do think you are correct that lead/carbon deepcycle batteries offer the best price perfomance for solar storage (off grid for individual homes, not utility scale) for some time to come.

That said, investors should be aware that VC firms are also well-placed (and I believe: better positioned and ahead) in this market. eg:

elecsolbatteries.com

As to the probability of cars powered by any chemical batteries: 0.00000000000000000000...