Dr. Dan's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/178535/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/134236-dendreon-s-provenge-is-scientifically-intriguing-but-commercially-nonsensical?source=feed#comment-483868 483868 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 09:38:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110546-open-letter-to-sirius-xm-take-us-listeners-into-consideration?source=feed#comment-328970 328970 Sun, 14 Dec 2008 10:31:45 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/87934-apple-math-market-share-over-margins?source=feed#comment-218414 218414
Given their traditional conservative guidance, one wouldn't expect them to say "after that drop to 30%, we expect the following quarter to jump back past 35% or 40%." Given the high margins Apple likes for new products, I think it's silly to think they'd deliberately lower margins without any expected reversal.

I also agree that the market mentality driving this stock seems inexplicably short-sighted and stupid. How can the same exact scenario - great earnings blasting consensus, conservative guidance below consensus, stock plummets - play out three times in a row? Each time with the earlier fears shown to be unfounded? Where are all the people who were "proving" that iPod sales were flat for good, or that iPhone market was saturating, or whatever fear-du-jour was used to explain the last selloff? It just seems nuts.]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 11:29:14 -0400
Given their traditional conservative guidance, one wouldn't expect them to say "after that drop to 30%, we expect the following quarter to jump back past 35% or 40%." Given the high margins Apple likes for new products, I think it's silly to think they'd deliberately lower margins without any expected reversal.

I also agree that the market mentality driving this stock seems inexplicably short-sighted and stupid. How can the same exact scenario - great earnings blasting consensus, conservative guidance below consensus, stock plummets - play out three times in a row? Each time with the earlier fears shown to be unfounded? Where are all the people who were "proving" that iPod sales were flat for good, or that iPhone market was saturating, or whatever fear-du-jour was used to explain the last selloff? It just seems nuts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80929-palm-girds-for-a-smartphone-comeback?source=feed#comment-183684 183684 Wed, 11 Jun 2008 17:44:12 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79396-by-how-much-will-apple-blow-away-its-10m-iphone-target?source=feed#comment-176766 176766
On the delayed revenue side, I'm not sure I understand the issue here. Wasn't the AT&T revenue sharing deal the reason for not wanting to record all the income up front? The revenue sharing doesn't apply to about 30% of the sales, so I'd imagine those sales are counted up front. And if they're not, they mean guaranteed income for four quarters, pushing up the base for all calculations and making the bottom line even more secure. ]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 11:49:16 -0400
On the delayed revenue side, I'm not sure I understand the issue here. Wasn't the AT&T revenue sharing deal the reason for not wanting to record all the income up front? The revenue sharing doesn't apply to about 30% of the sales, so I'd imagine those sales are counted up front. And if they're not, they mean guaranteed income for four quarters, pushing up the base for all calculations and making the bottom line even more secure. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77026-what-s-better-blackberry-or-iphone?source=feed#comment-166966 166966
Still, there are real points to make, and one is this: Whether the chicklet keyboard is better than the touchscreen is an arguable point. However, from what I've seen the touchscreen is good *enough* after some practice for most users to be happy with it - it wasn't even in the top three complaints on satisfaction surveys. There are so many other advantages the iPhone has over current BlackBerry products that there will be inevitable market share loss to Apple, in my opinon. With the developer's kit out, it's only a matter of time before someone has a small chicklet iPhone keyboard for those occasions when you want to type faster and longer. I've used my Palm Bluetooth keyboard along with my TX to get "good enough" results instead of lugging a laptop around - once, an admiring crowd gathered as I used them in an Apple store while waiting for the Genius bar!

Personally, though, I want a phone to just be a phone. But I'll be buying an iPod Touch as soon as my TX dies.]]> Tue, 13 May 2008 14:21:20 -0400
Still, there are real points to make, and one is this: Whether the chicklet keyboard is better than the touchscreen is an arguable point. However, from what I've seen the touchscreen is good *enough* after some practice for most users to be happy with it - it wasn't even in the top three complaints on satisfaction surveys. There are so many other advantages the iPhone has over current BlackBerry products that there will be inevitable market share loss to Apple, in my opinon. With the developer's kit out, it's only a matter of time before someone has a small chicklet iPhone keyboard for those occasions when you want to type faster and longer. I've used my Palm Bluetooth keyboard along with my TX to get "good enough" results instead of lugging a laptop around - once, an admiring crowd gathered as I used them in an Apple store while waiting for the Genius bar!

Personally, though, I want a phone to just be a phone. But I'll be buying an iPod Touch as soon as my TX dies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74170-microsoft-did-us-a-favor-andreessen?source=feed#comment-157929 157929 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 10:18:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/73826-starbucks-price-is-what-you-pay-value-is-what-you-get?source=feed#comment-155905 155905 ]]> Thu, 24 Apr 2008 11:03:01 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73612-the-outlook-for-apple-s-ipod-business?source=feed#comment-155440 155440
Finally, I have no interest whatsoever in an iPhone, both because AT&T is a company I happily abandoned some years back, and because I want a small, very portable phone with great battery life that won't be cannibalized by other uses. But, as soon as the Touch gets better PDA functions I'm racing to the store to get one, for everything it has in addition to the phone. I think there are many people like me - in love with the iPhone concept but not the phone part - and others who don't want to spend the extra money and pay monthly fees (which makes it a tough gift to present.) I think the phrase "the iPhone will cannibalize a sizable amount of iPod sales" is exactly backwards.]]> Wed, 23 Apr 2008 14:36:31 -0400
Finally, I have no interest whatsoever in an iPhone, both because AT&T is a company I happily abandoned some years back, and because I want a small, very portable phone with great battery life that won't be cannibalized by other uses. But, as soon as the Touch gets better PDA functions I'm racing to the store to get one, for everything it has in addition to the phone. I think there are many people like me - in love with the iPhone concept but not the phone part - and others who don't want to spend the extra money and pay monthly fees (which makes it a tough gift to present.) I think the phrase "the iPhone will cannibalize a sizable amount of iPod sales" is exactly backwards.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72252-will-the-iphone-eat-blackberry-s-business-lunch?source=feed#comment-151022 151022 Tue, 15 Apr 2008 10:14:05 -0400