mcadoo3312

The Oil Casino: SEC Heading for Monte Carlo, Part III

Terrific series of articles. Thank you for the hard work and DD that went into this.

Of course this has huge implications on the oil market, but could it not have even bigger implications on the nat gas market as there have been so many "huge" discoveries recently?

A Very Smart Plan for Federal Smart Grid Grants

BCON is at the top of the list to receive the DOE loan guarantees. They should certainly be considered in your analysis, especially as their plans for a NY power station have already received the environmental green light from the administration.

The Wisdom of Half Positions

Good post!

Yes the uptick rule helps slow short sales - but only when the market's not diving. Which kinda defeats the purpose.

How is that the purpose? The purpose of short selling is to equalize the system; the uptick rule slowed the process of shorting a stock into oblivion. One of the commenters in the article was spot on with his opinion that, if nothing else, reinstating the uptick rule would go a long way to help investor sentiment. That is something we badly need right now.

Waiting for Inflation? It May Take Awhile

Overall I understand where you are coming from, but some of your points are flawed. Using the M2 money supply growth isn't a great indicator of future inflation based on the nature of its calculation. To me, this increase is more based on investors fleeing to cash and money market accounts. There is a reason the chart above is beginning to flatten; the majority of panic selling occurred in October and November of last year. Volumes on selloffs are decreasing, indicating this mania is beginning to subside. M3 is no longer reported, so the effects of governmental spending is not quantifiable.

That being said, for consumers, it is the velocity of money that will catalyze inflationary growth, as evidenced by CPI, in the short term. This is no where near the problem we will face when the massive Treasury issuance, especially in the short end of the curve, comes due. Combine this with all of the other issuance around the world and one must ask where the buyers are going to come from. Not everyone can rely on China. The real inflationary problems we face have been pushed off further down the road, and they are much worse than whether or not the Fed can get the liquidity they have put in the system out of it.

U.S. Debt Watch: Paths to Repudiation

If there is an increase in GDP, the growth would not be organic, which goes to your point that no matter what the "solution" to the debt, it is pretty much all coming from the same place.

China Trying to Break the Euro?

Interesting points. I agree with everything you have to say; China's closed book policy would also allow them to do this. They know that in this environment, they are many countries' saving grace because they are one of the few entities that can actually buy debt, something every country in the world needs going forward. This does not come without risk, though. China is not yet in position internally to burn any political bridges. They must sustain their working class and financial markets before they can make more bold moves. Their stimulus will go directly to this source which may expedite this process. To be honest, I am not sure why they didn't spend more.

G7: In Denial and In Need of a Leadership Bailout

If you were the Japanese Finance Minister, would you want to be sober?

Half the World Is Middle-Class Now

Thank you for letting us on to this piece. Unless we begin to change our ways now, it will be too late as the countries that need us could turn against us, to our economic demise.

How the World Almost Came to an End on September 18, 2008

Thanks for sharing this!

Cramer's Stop Trading! What Do Cramer and Rush Limbaugh Have in Common? (1/29/09)

I didn't read the article. I just wanted to respond to the title.

Their personalities are bigger than their brains.

The Heretics of Finance

I am in the same camp as jrs. I wouldn't recommend only fundamental analysis or only technical analysis. I really don't understand why anyone would want to limit their thought to one or the other. If they do, they will likely come out inferior in performance to those that use both. Their loss, I guess.

One Day Away from Retesting 52-Week Lows

Technicals have been running this market for the past couple of months. It is important to look at multiple angles from multiple time frames. Prices have been jumping off of trend lines and moving averages.

How to Get the January Effect to Work in Your Favor

From what I have seen, the January Effect has been very nice in 2009. Still, it is up to the investor to do the research to realize which stocks are increasing because of arbitrage versus those that are increasing because of fundamentals of their companies. Small caps always exude the biggest risk/reward; diversify, be diligent, and ask yourself if you are being greedy when expecting future profits.

Biotech: The Next Big Bubble?

Even though his analysis included that fraud, the overall idea is right. I disagree with one of the commenters above that said it was not good to trade these things. Because they are so volatile and risky, I would take huge gains on a stock, even if it could go higher, because the odds of it staying that consistently high are not good.

The article was also way too general. "Having enough cash" is relative to each individual company, the strength and versitility of the drug, and the burn rate. There are tons of opportunities going into the new year because there has been such little buying of the extremely beaten down stocks which could also be exacerbated by tax loss selling. I am expecting a healthy January Effect bounce in some companies, especially those that have already received FDA approval.