LBill

More Thoughts on Mohamed El-Erian's 'When Markets Collide'

Geoff- Valuable piece. I especially take note of your reflections on market-cap weighted index funds (backward looking) as well as the fundamental-weighting alternatives. I've often wondered whether the Fama-French value and small effects on increasing portfolio returns is simply due to the dilution of market-cap weighting that this introduces.

Income Planning and Safe Withdrawal Rates

whoops, I meant biennially (every 2 years)- I always get those mixed up.

Income Planning and Safe Withdrawal Rates

This is another terrific article Geoff. It's important to consider portfolio risk and portfolio survival probability together. A high-risk port with an 80% survival target could result in lethal drawdowns over a 5-year period. IMO, it makes more sense to review and reset annually or at most bi-annually than it does to wait 5 years.

A Simple Momentum System for Beating the Market

There can be long periods when markets are not trending and price keeps crossing above and below the 10-month (or whatever) moving average one is using to buy or sell. For example, if I were using PCRIX as my commodity investment there were two buy-sell round trips in 2005 and four round trips in 2006 which ground out loss after loss. I wouldn't have been able to stay with it over that 2 year period - would you?