SwingTimer

A Bullish and Bearish Forecast

Your article presents useful contrasting views of the prevailing economic situation, but Hall make a simple assertion that there is a part two to the financial crisis.

"Five waves to downturn: i) housing market collapse, ii) financial crisis, iii) slower demand, iv) job losses, and v) financial crisis – the second round; we are in the third and fourth stages, headed for the fifth, i.e. the wave of writedowns, loan-loss provisions, etc to be triggered by the collapse in the real economy (when even good loans go sour)"

The first four components are readily acceptable as reality. But it would be relevant to be able to assess whether his fifth component is merely an assertion on his part (a penchant for "doom & gloom") or a serious prospect to which a high probability can be ascribed.

Perhaps a subsequent article will elaborate on his justification for his view that "the other shoe has yet to fall".