SwingTimer's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/179191/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/177021-change-in-the-tone-of-the-markets?source=feed#comment-796721 796721 I have to say...an enless array of supposedly "meaningful" facts is dizzying for me to read at the end of a long trading day. Bottom line, I'm not sure that I grasp what you wanted to say. Favorable comments by some readers suggests to me that I may be missing something relevant - and I'd love to get the message - so, please make your case (whatever it may be) concisely in the future. Thanks.]]> Tue, 08 Dec 2009 16:19:15 -0500 I have to say...an enless array of supposedly "meaningful" facts is dizzying for me to read at the end of a long trading day. Bottom line, I'm not sure that I grasp what you wanted to say. Favorable comments by some readers suggests to me that I may be missing something relevant - and I'd love to get the message - so, please make your case (whatever it may be) concisely in the future. Thanks.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/176124-andy-xie-s-china-outlook?source=feed#comment-790818 790818 Fri, 04 Dec 2009 16:00:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174443-rip-retail-stores-closed-in-2009?source=feed#comment-769629 769629 Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:01:16 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/174051-the-decade-s-top-25-stocks?source=feed#comment-768007 768007 Thu, 19 Nov 2009 16:05:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/171196-wednesday-options-update-uup-nwl-hnz-ewz?source=feed#comment-750096 750096 I have to say, I always enjoy your postings. I'm sure al lot of investors benefit from your reporting of options activity and especially of your interpretations of the consequences of the trades.
Many thanks. Mike]]> Sat, 07 Nov 2009 16:06:27 -0500 I have to say, I always enjoy your postings. I'm sure al lot of investors benefit from your reporting of options activity and especially of your interpretations of the consequences of the trades.
Many thanks. Mike]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/167235-goldman-sachs-jpmorgan-chase-how-did-they-make-so-much-money?source=feed#comment-720942 720942 I follow your blogs because you generally have relevant comments. But this time, you pose a question but don't give an answer (or even an opinion). Then you bring up a rumor, (adding to the rumor itself, which I haven't heard before), that GE may be bankrupt! Please... I just wonder why you bother to post an article which seems pointless.]]> Mon, 19 Oct 2009 15:52:03 -0400 I follow your blogs because you generally have relevant comments. But this time, you pose a question but don't give an answer (or even an opinion). Then you bring up a rumor, (adding to the rumor itself, which I haven't heard before), that GE may be bankrupt! Please... I just wonder why you bother to post an article which seems pointless.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160857-compass-minerals-for-global-warming-doubters?source=feed#comment-672613 672613 I always review your selections carefully and have taken on a number of your suggested option trades. Thank you.
But I was wondering if you always hold your positions to expiration or on occassion make adjustments to lock in profits or otherwise optimize a position. I'd appreciate your sharing with your readers any adjustment strategies which you may employ. Thanks again, in advance.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 15:23:19 -0400 I always review your selections carefully and have taken on a number of your suggested option trades. Thank you.
But I was wondering if you always hold your positions to expiration or on occassion make adjustments to lock in profits or otherwise optimize a position. I'd appreciate your sharing with your readers any adjustment strategies which you may employ. Thanks again, in advance.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160322-16-reasons-for-equities-markets-to-fall-soon?source=feed#comment-667153 667153 There are always two sides to any situation (just ask your wife/girlfriend). While an awful lot of arguments can be cited for a lower market in the near/intermediate term, a similar number (in importance, at least) can be cited for an opposite viewpoint - they can all be boiled down to ONE though - investor psychology.
I agree fully that the market is due for a correction. But it is where it is, despite all the doom & gloom arguments, because investors as a whole prefer to ignore the awful realities of today and prefer to "anchor" their strategies on the fact that the market - over the long term - will inevitably continue on its merry way due to the indisputable resilience of the human spirit. OK, I perhaps digress here.
But the point is, in the short/intermediate term (you decide what that is), the market is over-extended. Viewed over the longer term, it is no doubt cheap and will continue to gradually climb higher and higher - it always has, and that's because we as a species inevitably adapt and move forward. So, define your investment strategy within a defined time perspective, and move on.
Just remember that investor psychology incorporates two rather dismal attributes - fear and greed - and these always produce market price oscillations, up...down...up...down.... That's the nature of the beast, so live with it by adapting to it.
Good luck, and then some.]]> Tue, 08 Sep 2009 16:29:28 -0400 There are always two sides to any situation (just ask your wife/girlfriend). While an awful lot of arguments can be cited for a lower market in the near/intermediate term, a similar number (in importance, at least) can be cited for an opposite viewpoint - they can all be boiled down to ONE though - investor psychology.
I agree fully that the market is due for a correction. But it is where it is, despite all the doom & gloom arguments, because investors as a whole prefer to ignore the awful realities of today and prefer to "anchor" their strategies on the fact that the market - over the long term - will inevitably continue on its merry way due to the indisputable resilience of the human spirit. OK, I perhaps digress here.
But the point is, in the short/intermediate term (you decide what that is), the market is over-extended. Viewed over the longer term, it is no doubt cheap and will continue to gradually climb higher and higher - it always has, and that's because we as a species inevitably adapt and move forward. So, define your investment strategy within a defined time perspective, and move on.
Just remember that investor psychology incorporates two rather dismal attributes - fear and greed - and these always produce market price oscillations, up...down...up...down.... That's the nature of the beast, so live with it by adapting to it.
Good luck, and then some.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/154281-market-cycles-a-look-at-the-historical-evidence?source=feed#comment-620156 620156 Fri, 07 Aug 2009 14:16:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/144231-herman-miller-preparing-for-the-long-haul?source=feed#comment-555522 555522 Sat, 20 Jun 2009 16:45:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141808-how-to-make-money-from-china-s-stimulus-package?source=feed#comment-537711 537711 Mon, 08 Jun 2009 16:27:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/141742-dead-dog-survey-part-1?source=feed#comment-536176 536176 Sun, 07 Jun 2009 18:33:50 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/140124-why-the-nuclear-etf-could-be-powering-up?source=feed#comment-525411 525411
Ethical investing is all well and good, and if that's your thing, then good for you. But stop preaching to the converted. And recognize that the objective of investing for most investors is to make money, not to generate a "feel good, holier than thou" sense of well-being. May not be right, but that's the way it is.

And, importantly, don't judge a prospective investment solely on the "green" merits of it - it'll lead you astray.

]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 15:56:31 -0400
Ethical investing is all well and good, and if that's your thing, then good for you. But stop preaching to the converted. And recognize that the objective of investing for most investors is to make money, not to generate a "feel good, holier than thou" sense of well-being. May not be right, but that's the way it is.

And, importantly, don't judge a prospective investment solely on the "green" merits of it - it'll lead you astray.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131627-the-inundation-of-debt-and-its-toll-on-our-economy?source=feed#comment-468911 468911
Your comments make a certain amount of sense, but please keep your naive religious frame-of-reference and communist ideology out of it . If you have an opinion, simply address the dynamics of the economics of the situation - not the "children" - if you wish your viewpoint is to be considered seriously by readers of SA.

" Government control of all funds on behalf of the people is greatly to be preferred to private control of funds on behalf of the criminals".

Really...??? This assumes two things: 1) everyone out there is deceitful, and, 2) government bureaucrats are unquestionably competent. Really??? Get real, why don't you! Prospects in the real world aren't as bad as your clostured world of make-believe and imaginary "euphorea".
]]> Sun, 19 Apr 2009 18:09:13 -0400
Your comments make a certain amount of sense, but please keep your naive religious frame-of-reference and communist ideology out of it . If you have an opinion, simply address the dynamics of the economics of the situation - not the "children" - if you wish your viewpoint is to be considered seriously by readers of SA.

" Government control of all funds on behalf of the people is greatly to be preferred to private control of funds on behalf of the criminals".

Really...??? This assumes two things: 1) everyone out there is deceitful, and, 2) government bureaucrats are unquestionably competent. Really??? Get real, why don't you! Prospects in the real world aren't as bad as your clostured world of make-believe and imaginary "euphorea".
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130979-a-bullish-and-bearish-forecast?source=feed#comment-465712 465712
"Five waves to downturn: i) housing market collapse, ii) financial crisis, iii) slower demand, iv) job losses, and v) financial crisis – the second round; we are in the third and fourth stages, headed for the fifth, i.e. the wave of writedowns, loan-loss provisions, etc to be triggered by the collapse in the real economy (when even good loans go sour)"

The first four components are readily acceptable as reality. But it would be relevant to be able to assess whether his fifth component is merely an assertion on his part (a penchant for "doom & gloom") or a serious prospect to which a high probability can be ascribed.

Perhaps a subsequent article will elaborate on his justification for his view that "the other shoe has yet to fall".]]> Thu, 16 Apr 2009 16:25:49 -0400
"Five waves to downturn: i) housing market collapse, ii) financial crisis, iii) slower demand, iv) job losses, and v) financial crisis – the second round; we are in the third and fourth stages, headed for the fifth, i.e. the wave of writedowns, loan-loss provisions, etc to be triggered by the collapse in the real economy (when even good loans go sour)"

The first four components are readily acceptable as reality. But it would be relevant to be able to assess whether his fifth component is merely an assertion on his part (a penchant for "doom & gloom") or a serious prospect to which a high probability can be ascribed.

Perhaps a subsequent article will elaborate on his justification for his view that "the other shoe has yet to fall".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128428-why-i-m-bullish-on-whole-foods?source=feed#comment-445627 445627 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 16:30:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127514-emerging-market-etfs-come-unhinged?source=feed#comment-437892 437892 Tue, 24 Mar 2009 09:09:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/127251-can-we-bank-on-a-financial-etf-rebound?source=feed#comment-436945 436945 Mon, 23 Mar 2009 13:59:22 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/126951-u-s-dollar-another-sign-of-accelerating-loss-of-confidence?source=feed#comment-435658 435658 Why publish your website address when it denies any form of access?]]> Sun, 22 Mar 2009 15:29:51 -0400 Why publish your website address when it denies any form of access?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121680-your-oil-stocks-aren-t-coming-back?source=feed#comment-397106 397106 Did you not pay attention during grammer school? - or are you simply hoping to redefine the punctuation rules/conventions of the written English language. Your observations are presented quite well, except for the fact (I suppose) that the Shift key on your computer doesn't work - it makes reading your insightful thoughts awkward. ]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 16:23:39 -0500 Did you not pay attention during grammer school? - or are you simply hoping to redefine the punctuation rules/conventions of the written English language. Your observations are presented quite well, except for the fact (I suppose) that the Shift key on your computer doesn't work - it makes reading your insightful thoughts awkward. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120739-intrinsic-value-investing-recognizing-potentially-mispriced-stocks?source=feed#comment-392476 392476
If you have nothing relevant to say, just juice up on your favorite something and go jump out of a perfectly good plane! If that works for you, then fine - otherwise, spare us the inane jiborish.]]> Tue, 17 Feb 2009 15:55:28 -0500
If you have nothing relevant to say, just juice up on your favorite something and go jump out of a perfectly good plane! If that works for you, then fine - otherwise, spare us the inane jiborish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/117314-strong-wireless-growth-helps-at-t-and-verizon?source=feed#comment-372165 372165 Sat, 31 Jan 2009 17:35:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114275-predicting-oil-prices-through-gold?source=feed#comment-353160 353160
The value of gold is determined largely by its perceived "safe-haven" end-of-the-world characteristic as a defensive "store-of-value" - something which is very real and useful in the minds of most gold investors, I suppose.

Oil, by contrast, is one of several crucial input components to modern economic activity - what you could call a "facilitator" / "creator-of-value" with respect to such vital functions as manufacturing (plastics, etc), transportation, etc.

Thus, one has been and likely will remain a largely static and emotional prop, while the other has been and will remain for the foreseable future an essential that "greases" the wheels of modern prosperity (notwithstanding the advent of alternative energy sources).

Let's remember that correlation is not equivalent to causation. Thus, the use of "correlated" assets in making investment decisions should not be given undue weight. And this is especially relevant when you consider, as pointed out by Richard, that the ratio of gold to oil has "shifted" dramatically between the 1990s timeframe and the more recent 8-9 years.]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 09:13:54 -0500
The value of gold is determined largely by its perceived "safe-haven" end-of-the-world characteristic as a defensive "store-of-value" - something which is very real and useful in the minds of most gold investors, I suppose.

Oil, by contrast, is one of several crucial input components to modern economic activity - what you could call a "facilitator" / "creator-of-value" with respect to such vital functions as manufacturing (plastics, etc), transportation, etc.

Thus, one has been and likely will remain a largely static and emotional prop, while the other has been and will remain for the foreseable future an essential that "greases" the wheels of modern prosperity (notwithstanding the advent of alternative energy sources).

Let's remember that correlation is not equivalent to causation. Thus, the use of "correlated" assets in making investment decisions should not be given undue weight. And this is especially relevant when you consider, as pointed out by Richard, that the ratio of gold to oil has "shifted" dramatically between the 1990s timeframe and the more recent 8-9 years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113612-infrastructure-stocks-hope-hype-and-the-herd-mentality?source=feed#comment-349788 349788
I fail to see the point of your cynical criticism of Mr Mickey's efforts. Do you view your medical doctor's efforts on your behalf with similar disdain and distrust just because he is at the same time earning a living?

The point of this Seeking Alpha blog is to present ideas, opinions, and information with which to evaluate investment possibilities and facilitate investment decisions - there is no attempt to sell you something which would leave you out of pocket.

Simply going counter to someone else's expressed opinion equates to letting that other individual make your decisions for you. This is a strategy guaranteed to leave you distrustful, cynical, and poor - which is why, I suppose, you have criticized Mr Mickey for his efforts.

If you have nothing constructive to offer, keep your views to yourself.

MG ]]> Thu, 08 Jan 2009 12:10:59 -0500
I fail to see the point of your cynical criticism of Mr Mickey's efforts. Do you view your medical doctor's efforts on your behalf with similar disdain and distrust just because he is at the same time earning a living?

The point of this Seeking Alpha blog is to present ideas, opinions, and information with which to evaluate investment possibilities and facilitate investment decisions - there is no attempt to sell you something which would leave you out of pocket.

Simply going counter to someone else's expressed opinion equates to letting that other individual make your decisions for you. This is a strategy guaranteed to leave you distrustful, cynical, and poor - which is why, I suppose, you have criticized Mr Mickey for his efforts.

If you have nothing constructive to offer, keep your views to yourself.

MG ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113474-the-good-and-bad-of-fertilizer-stocks?source=feed#comment-349738 349738 Thu, 08 Jan 2009 11:41:56 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113225-ratio-of-gold-to-silver?source=feed#comment-347926 347926 This ratio analysis between gold and silver is all well and good, and perhaps even useful. But unless you can predict one component (either one) with some degree of certainly -and by some relevant fundamental/technical evaluation proceedure which takes into account prospective conditions - the ratio's status is quite meaningless. Just my humble opinion.

The same can be said about standard deviations as a useful measure of propensity for reversion to the mean. But, again, such a measure (while a quite useful evaluative tool) does not CAUSE nor necessarily MANDATE a particular change in the value of the underlying under analysis. It merely DESCRIBES what HAS happened - not what WILL happen.

So, to the extent that historical circumstances can be useful in describing the "nature" of a particular "item", any measure of historical circumstances is most relevant, and useful - but should be considered insufficient as the basis on which to make an investment decision....in my humble opinion.

In the current environment of demand destruction for commodities generally ( and silver in particular), the single most relevant factor is the fact of supply destruction arising from the well-known price erosion and curtailment in the availability of financing.

By contrast to silver, which has a basis for its price given its demand for industrial purposes, gold's utilitarian value is minimal and is largely ornamental. In my opinion, the largest prospective merit in buying gold is the assessment that SOMEONE ELSE makes regarding whether gold may or may not be worth more than its current price - not an sound basis for valuing an asset!

....in my humble opinion, so draw your own conclusions.]]> Tue, 06 Jan 2009 17:59:51 -0500 This ratio analysis between gold and silver is all well and good, and perhaps even useful. But unless you can predict one component (either one) with some degree of certainly -and by some relevant fundamental/technical evaluation proceedure which takes into account prospective conditions - the ratio's status is quite meaningless. Just my humble opinion.

The same can be said about standard deviations as a useful measure of propensity for reversion to the mean. But, again, such a measure (while a quite useful evaluative tool) does not CAUSE nor necessarily MANDATE a particular change in the value of the underlying under analysis. It merely DESCRIBES what HAS happened - not what WILL happen.

So, to the extent that historical circumstances can be useful in describing the "nature" of a particular "item", any measure of historical circumstances is most relevant, and useful - but should be considered insufficient as the basis on which to make an investment decision....in my humble opinion.

In the current environment of demand destruction for commodities generally ( and silver in particular), the single most relevant factor is the fact of supply destruction arising from the well-known price erosion and curtailment in the availability of financing.

By contrast to silver, which has a basis for its price given its demand for industrial purposes, gold's utilitarian value is minimal and is largely ornamental. In my opinion, the largest prospective merit in buying gold is the assessment that SOMEONE ELSE makes regarding whether gold may or may not be worth more than its current price - not an sound basis for valuing an asset!

....in my humble opinion, so draw your own conclusions.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/113040-is-the-long-bond-cracking?source=feed#comment-345272 345272 What is "QE"? ]]> Sun, 04 Jan 2009 10:04:50 -0500 What is "QE"? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112585-what-is-the-monetary-base?source=feed#comment-341296 341296 Tue, 30 Dec 2008 09:02:49 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112069-investing-in-deflationary-times?source=feed#comment-337826 337826
Quite simply, it smacks of HERD MENTALITY, where everyone is confortable assuming that because a trend is underway (in this case Deflation) that it will continue forever - because it is, after all, self-perpetuating and in likelihood can only continue in perpetuity.

Remember the Internet Bubble?; remember the Real Estate Bubble?; Remember forecasts of oil going to $200 by so-called "experts"; now, because of a serious correction, "expert" forecasts are calling for $30 or lower crude oil prices. Why not $5.00 oil, in total disregard for supply/demand factors? Yeah - right...?. Similarly, why not assume that we'll return to the horse-and-buggy days and exchanging a bunch of carrots for a pound of sugar.

True, there is that element of negative feedback and creeping reinforcement in the perception of consumers and investors regarding prospects for the world economy at the moment - which can't be denied as being quite relevant to the current situation. It's human nature to seek safety. But it's also quite naive to assume that human ingeniuty will not prevail.

A half-century in the stock market and twenty years as a full-time investor leads me to suspect that a simplistic view accomplishes little except to perpetuate a problem. It's relevant to note that the severity of the recent market decline probably discounts much if not all of the evolving, dismal, economic developments.

No, I'm not pounding my drum here; just invoking common sense based on experience. The world and the economy as we know it is not approaching its final days, as perhaps some of the bible-thumpers (and more than the odd economist) would have you believe. Bubbles - take your pick - are driven by mass histeria and so are the inevitable corrections - such as we have today. We'll get over it, and emerge the better for our hard knocks - it's called experience.

In the end, the investors who will profit are the ones who can take defensive action in the face of a serious threat, but then muster up the courage to stand on the merits of their own sensible (and informed) evaluation - making a commitment when few others will. Blindly adopting the ill-founded opinions of others seldom, if ever, produces a desirable outcome.

It might seem trite, but consider this: begin with a conclusion, either your own making or as presented by someone else, and you'll easily rationalize yourself into believing it! Dangerous stuff when it comes to investing in the stock market, in my opinion.

Just a thought....Best wishes for the Season, and for your investment portfolio.]]> Wed, 24 Dec 2008 18:15:50 -0500
Quite simply, it smacks of HERD MENTALITY, where everyone is confortable assuming that because a trend is underway (in this case Deflation) that it will continue forever - because it is, after all, self-perpetuating and in likelihood can only continue in perpetuity.

Remember the Internet Bubble?; remember the Real Estate Bubble?; Remember forecasts of oil going to $200 by so-called "experts"; now, because of a serious correction, "expert" forecasts are calling for $30 or lower crude oil prices. Why not $5.00 oil, in total disregard for supply/demand factors? Yeah - right...?. Similarly, why not assume that we'll return to the horse-and-buggy days and exchanging a bunch of carrots for a pound of sugar.

True, there is that element of negative feedback and creeping reinforcement in the perception of consumers and investors regarding prospects for the world economy at the moment - which can't be denied as being quite relevant to the current situation. It's human nature to seek safety. But it's also quite naive to assume that human ingeniuty will not prevail.

A half-century in the stock market and twenty years as a full-time investor leads me to suspect that a simplistic view accomplishes little except to perpetuate a problem. It's relevant to note that the severity of the recent market decline probably discounts much if not all of the evolving, dismal, economic developments.

No, I'm not pounding my drum here; just invoking common sense based on experience. The world and the economy as we know it is not approaching its final days, as perhaps some of the bible-thumpers (and more than the odd economist) would have you believe. Bubbles - take your pick - are driven by mass histeria and so are the inevitable corrections - such as we have today. We'll get over it, and emerge the better for our hard knocks - it's called experience.

In the end, the investors who will profit are the ones who can take defensive action in the face of a serious threat, but then muster up the courage to stand on the merits of their own sensible (and informed) evaluation - making a commitment when few others will. Blindly adopting the ill-founded opinions of others seldom, if ever, produces a desirable outcome.

It might seem trite, but consider this: begin with a conclusion, either your own making or as presented by someone else, and you'll easily rationalize yourself into believing it! Dangerous stuff when it comes to investing in the stock market, in my opinion.

Just a thought....Best wishes for the Season, and for your investment portfolio.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108135-letting-the-reinflation-genie-out-of-the-bottle?source=feed#comment-316389 316389 Thu, 27 Nov 2008 16:32:04 -0500