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docman
1 Comment
Not Yet Time to Buy Homebuilders [view article]
I disagree with your assertion. There are several reasons to think that the homebuilders are a good investment now:The homebuilder stocks have been falling for 2 years straight, and the PE ratio of these stocks is now less than 50% of the average US stock (XHB PE ratio is 6.6).
The US housing market will not fail in the long run (i.e., 10-20 years). Real estate may go out of style for awhile, but it is unlikely that there has been some "fundamental"... change in the real estate cycle (beware those who say "this time it's different!").
Sure there was a bubble. Then there was a correction with a 60% drop in homebuilder stocks over 2 years (check out a 3 year chart of XHB)... Now there will likely be a lot of upside over the next several years as this sector crawls back to fair value. Currently the worst case scenario for real estate is priced in.
The question in my mind is not "has real estate in the US hit the bottom?" but "Are homebuilder stocks a good deal now and are they likely to outperform the rest of the market in the future?" Given the massive drop in stock prices, gloomy public perception which is "priced in" to these stocks, and the fact that long term, the US housing market will not fail all lead me to conclude that for a long term investor, homebuilder stocks are probably a good opportunity right now.
Apr 17 04:58 AM