Bonanza36's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/179575/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/86176-opco-s-whitney-explains-how-to-miss-the-financials-recovery?source=feed#comment-325985 325985 Wed, 10 Dec 2008 21:38:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/106492-toxic-bear-stearns-mortgage-paper-performing-well?source=feed#comment-322388 322388
Doubtful.

We should believe what someone at Blackrocks says? So they can sell us their crap sandwiches at a higher price?

Sure thing, you go first.]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 10:26:04 -0500
Doubtful.

We should believe what someone at Blackrocks says? So they can sell us their crap sandwiches at a higher price?

Sure thing, you go first.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/109314-ken-lewis-on-bank-accounting-sensible-talk-from-a-surprising-source?source=feed#comment-322385 322385
Keep it up Tom, your pollyanish bleating on behalf of these deadman walking banks will be the financial death of your followers.
]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 10:21:47 -0500
Keep it up Tom, your pollyanish bleating on behalf of these deadman walking banks will be the financial death of your followers.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99630-market-bloodshed-may-almost-be-over?source=feed#comment-320607 320607
After you wrote this article C traded with a 4 handle. Even with the Dow off its lows.

Thank goodness no one seems to be following your sage advice. How's that day job working out?]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 08:48:54 -0500
After you wrote this article C traded with a 4 handle. Even with the Dow off its lows.

Thank goodness no one seems to be following your sage advice. How's that day job working out?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106492-toxic-bear-stearns-mortgage-paper-performing-well?source=feed#comment-320599 320599
Mortgages are worth what the market will pay. Brown has lost millions of his customers money but boy is he optimistic.

]]> Thu, 04 Dec 2008 08:43:26 -0500
Mortgages are worth what the market will pay. Brown has lost millions of his customers money but boy is he optimistic.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90156-financials-bottoms-happen-when-everyone-s-convinced-they-won-t?source=feed#comment-319957 319957 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:20:57 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92121-our-advice-buy-the-financials-now?source=feed#comment-319952 319952 Wed, 03 Dec 2008 12:18:39 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105394-it-s-a-great-time-to-be-a-value-investor?source=feed#comment-303499 303499
All based on "value investing" .

Where are we? 1929.]]> Tue, 11 Nov 2008 18:58:47 -0500
All based on "value investing" .

Where are we? 1929.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90143-young-jeezy-s-the-recession-i-think-weve-bottomed-out?source=feed#comment-293266 293266
Terrance, don't give up your day job.]]> Wed, 29 Oct 2008 08:32:11 -0400
Terrance, don't give up your day job.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95804-aig-bailout-over-to-congress?source=feed#comment-256481 256481
This is socialism that even FDR could not have conceived.
]]> Tue, 16 Sep 2008 22:23:12 -0400
This is socialism that even FDR could not have conceived.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94898-calling-a-bottom-it-s-time-to-party?source=feed#comment-250914 250914 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 16:47:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94898-calling-a-bottom-it-s-time-to-party?source=feed#comment-250912 250912 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 16:46:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/94806-has-berkshire-stopped-insuring-bank-deposits-above-fdic-limit?source=feed#comment-250333 250333 Wed, 10 Sep 2008 10:19:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93047-housing-and-financials-the-worst-may-soon-be-over?source=feed#comment-241161 241161 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 17:01:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91811-solvency-and-liquidity-non-identical-twins?source=feed#comment-235117 235117
This is like me saying that I am liquid because I borrowed a $100,000 off my Visa card and put it in my checking account, while at the same time my assets are exceeded by my liabilities by a million dollars.

I am insolvent, but liquid. I am hoping that my creditors are not smart enough to figure that out and come asking for their money back.

This is where the banks are: they are praying for a miracle.

I know lots of folks who are solvent but not liquid. Times are tough for them.

I also know folks who have money in the bank but a negative net worth.

Right now, you need a solid balance sheet and plenty of cash to survive, something the banks have lost sight of.

The banks are "liquid" only because they have used Uncle Ben's pawn shop to hock their most toxic loans, but they are not solvent.

We are simply putting off the day of reckoning when the banks are bailed out by taxpayers. Right now, they are just playing the game of "hide the sausage" and are hoping we don't notice.

]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 17:08:47 -0400
This is like me saying that I am liquid because I borrowed a $100,000 off my Visa card and put it in my checking account, while at the same time my assets are exceeded by my liabilities by a million dollars.

I am insolvent, but liquid. I am hoping that my creditors are not smart enough to figure that out and come asking for their money back.

This is where the banks are: they are praying for a miracle.

I know lots of folks who are solvent but not liquid. Times are tough for them.

I also know folks who have money in the bank but a negative net worth.

Right now, you need a solid balance sheet and plenty of cash to survive, something the banks have lost sight of.

The banks are "liquid" only because they have used Uncle Ben's pawn shop to hock their most toxic loans, but they are not solvent.

We are simply putting off the day of reckoning when the banks are bailed out by taxpayers. Right now, they are just playing the game of "hide the sausage" and are hoping we don't notice.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91308-why-downey-financial-is-not-indymac?source=feed#comment-233311 233311 Mon, 18 Aug 2008 14:30:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91137-don-t-believe-the-lies-ride-the-bank-stocks-bull?source=feed#comment-231541 231541 DSL) Non Performing Assets (NPA) went from 7.8% of assets to nearly 16% in six months.

There is $2BB in bad debt so far, most all in neg-am option ARMS. They have $860MM in equity and $734 MM in reserves. This gives you a Texas Ratio of 123%. Not good.

What most do not realize is that for years these banks have been booking neg-am interest on an accrual, not cash basis. For Tom Brown, let me explain that in simple terms:

Monthly neg-am interest accrues at the note rate, which was never collected. The borrower paid a lesser amount each month, and added the unpaid interest amount to the previous month's loan balance. The bank recognized the unpaid interest income as it accrued and it was booked as INCOME.

When this loan goes bad, in addition to selling the collateral for MUCH LESS than the value of the original loan amount, all the years of the previously booked income must be REVERSED on the banks income statement.

Forty percent of CFC's income was accrued, not paid, option ARM interest. Wait till that reversal gets recognized by BAC!

So you see Tom Brown and sheeple, the banks not only lose on the balance sheet, but the income statement as well. Tell me again how their margins (operating income) will bail them out of this fuster cluck.

So far all these banks have done well is play a good game of "hide the sausage", with the help of FASB who are allowing them another year to mark to market on off balance sheet items.

WB has $122 BILLION in Option ARMS on the books. Mostly in Florida and Cali. Of the loans that are still actually paying, 72% are making only the minimum payment each month. They are not even paying towards principal. When these loans hit the 110% cap in the next few years, you will see wave 2 of this mess.

disclosure: Long SKF, SRS]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 17:10:08 -0400 DSL) Non Performing Assets (NPA) went from 7.8% of assets to nearly 16% in six months.

There is $2BB in bad debt so far, most all in neg-am option ARMS. They have $860MM in equity and $734 MM in reserves. This gives you a Texas Ratio of 123%. Not good.

What most do not realize is that for years these banks have been booking neg-am interest on an accrual, not cash basis. For Tom Brown, let me explain that in simple terms:

Monthly neg-am interest accrues at the note rate, which was never collected. The borrower paid a lesser amount each month, and added the unpaid interest amount to the previous month's loan balance. The bank recognized the unpaid interest income as it accrued and it was booked as INCOME.

When this loan goes bad, in addition to selling the collateral for MUCH LESS than the value of the original loan amount, all the years of the previously booked income must be REVERSED on the banks income statement.

Forty percent of CFC's income was accrued, not paid, option ARM interest. Wait till that reversal gets recognized by BAC!

So you see Tom Brown and sheeple, the banks not only lose on the balance sheet, but the income statement as well. Tell me again how their margins (operating income) will bail them out of this fuster cluck.

So far all these banks have done well is play a good game of "hide the sausage", with the help of FASB who are allowing them another year to mark to market on off balance sheet items.

WB has $122 BILLION in Option ARMS on the books. Mostly in Florida and Cali. Of the loans that are still actually paying, 72% are making only the minimum payment each month. They are not even paying towards principal. When these loans hit the 110% cap in the next few years, you will see wave 2 of this mess.

disclosure: Long SKF, SRS]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91137-don-t-believe-the-lies-ride-the-bank-stocks-bull?source=feed#comment-231000 231000
I could go on, but you get my point.

Sorry, I am in the mortgage capital markets and this is not over yet. Classic value trap. What evidence do you have that the banks can replace their earnings that have evaporated as their business models change to survive?

I think I will follow Roubini. Even if he is only half right, we have another 1/2 trillion in write offs to go.

Brown is a clown. He has called the bottom so many times I feel for his clients. ]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 09:02:40 -0400
I could go on, but you get my point.

Sorry, I am in the mortgage capital markets and this is not over yet. Classic value trap. What evidence do you have that the banks can replace their earnings that have evaporated as their business models change to survive?

I think I will follow Roubini. Even if he is only half right, we have another 1/2 trillion in write offs to go.

Brown is a clown. He has called the bottom so many times I feel for his clients. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90926-canroys-remain-attractive-as-oil-related-investments?source=feed#comment-230063 230063
What will happen to unit price and yield?]]> Thu, 14 Aug 2008 09:15:35 -0400
What will happen to unit price and yield?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89493-should-you-tap-your-heloc-before-it-s-frozen?source=feed#comment-224547 224547
From my perspective, the credit crisis is getting worse, not better. When auction rate securities free up, and the financials can raise capital at something less that double digit yields, the I may pay down the Heloc.

For the time being, having access to the funds is worth 5% and can easily match that cost of funds in today's market with energy trusts.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 20:15:40 -0400
From my perspective, the credit crisis is getting worse, not better. When auction rate securities free up, and the financials can raise capital at something less that double digit yields, the I may pay down the Heloc.

For the time being, having access to the funds is worth 5% and can easily match that cost of funds in today's market with energy trusts.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88747-housing-bottom-and-homebuilders-no-sign-of-improvement?source=feed#comment-221589 221589
My money is on Campos.

]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:10:40 -0400
My money is on Campos.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87871-what-can-go-right-for-the-financials-quite-a-bit-actually?source=feed#comment-221587 221587 to Tom Brown Pumping the Financials everyday.com ???"

Now thats funny!! My sentiment exactly]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:08:49 -0400 to Tom Brown Pumping the Financials everyday.com ???"

Now thats funny!! My sentiment exactly]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88688-dinallo-comes-down-on-monoline-bears?source=feed#comment-221579 221579
How stupid do you/they think we are?

That, along with the shills (Brown included) for the BK financials should be investigated by the SEC.

Brown, I have gone back and read all your bullish headlines for the last year on this. God help your investors if they are following your advice.

The banks are continuing to play "hide the sausage", now with the approval of FASB for another year.

Being in the mortgage capital markets, I can tell you this is far from over. There are more sellers of mortgages than buyers, with this week Chase eliminating Jumbo loans from their TPO channel with the explanation that there is no market for them at this time.

Tom, other than seeing your name in print, what motivates you to continue to publish your rubbish on SA?]]> Sun, 03 Aug 2008 13:01:42 -0400
How stupid do you/they think we are?

That, along with the shills (Brown included) for the BK financials should be investigated by the SEC.

Brown, I have gone back and read all your bullish headlines for the last year on this. God help your investors if they are following your advice.

The banks are continuing to play "hide the sausage", now with the approval of FASB for another year.

Being in the mortgage capital markets, I can tell you this is far from over. There are more sellers of mortgages than buyers, with this week Chase eliminating Jumbo loans from their TPO channel with the explanation that there is no market for them at this time.

Tom, other than seeing your name in print, what motivates you to continue to publish your rubbish on SA?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86718-financials-have-bottomed-readers-say-we-re-nuts?source=feed#comment-220637 220637
Until, I trade what I see, not what I hope.

I am in the mtg cap mkts and regardless of what Brown says, this is definatley not over.

This is confirmed by a memo today from Chase to its mortgage brokers telling them they are exiting the jumbo business because it does not come with govt backing:

CHASE JUMBOS ARE A GONER .


Friday, August 1, 2008

Today we are announcing the elimination of all Non-Agency/Jumbo Fixed and ARM (Amortizing and Interest Only) product offerings within our Wholesale Lending Business. We have made this decision based on a variety of reasons.

First, we have seen a dramatic reduction in Jumbo volume levels over the past six months. To a point, it has become a very small percentage of our overall business. Secondly, Capital Markets continue to exhibit no interest in this product, as it sees safer and more liquid products such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities as better investments. Thirdly, our delinquency performance on these loans has been substantially worse than both our expectations and standards allow. Due to all of these factors, we feel it is in our best interest to suspend these products at this time.

It has been quite a tumultuous time in mortgage banking for the past 12 months. In fact, we are in the midst of the worst mortgage and real estate crisis in American history. Despite this, Chase continues to remain unwavering in its commitment to both mortgage lending, and specifically the Wholesale business.

We will closely monitor changes in this offering, including performance and salability in Capital Markets, calibrate the product set as appropriate and possibly re-introduce it in the future.

Thank you for your business and your continued loyalty to Chase.

Sincerely,

Rod Brace - Full Sig]]> Fri, 01 Aug 2008 17:00:36 -0400
Until, I trade what I see, not what I hope.

I am in the mtg cap mkts and regardless of what Brown says, this is definatley not over.

This is confirmed by a memo today from Chase to its mortgage brokers telling them they are exiting the jumbo business because it does not come with govt backing:

CHASE JUMBOS ARE A GONER .


Friday, August 1, 2008

Today we are announcing the elimination of all Non-Agency/Jumbo Fixed and ARM (Amortizing and Interest Only) product offerings within our Wholesale Lending Business. We have made this decision based on a variety of reasons.

First, we have seen a dramatic reduction in Jumbo volume levels over the past six months. To a point, it has become a very small percentage of our overall business. Secondly, Capital Markets continue to exhibit no interest in this product, as it sees safer and more liquid products such as Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae Mortgage-Backed Securities as better investments. Thirdly, our delinquency performance on these loans has been substantially worse than both our expectations and standards allow. Due to all of these factors, we feel it is in our best interest to suspend these products at this time.

It has been quite a tumultuous time in mortgage banking for the past 12 months. In fact, we are in the midst of the worst mortgage and real estate crisis in American history. Despite this, Chase continues to remain unwavering in its commitment to both mortgage lending, and specifically the Wholesale business.

We will closely monitor changes in this offering, including performance and salability in Capital Markets, calibrate the product set as appropriate and possibly re-introduce it in the future.

Thank you for your business and your continued loyalty to Chase.

Sincerely,

Rod Brace - Full Sig]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87473-yes-financial-companies-can-be-analyzed?source=feed#comment-216909 216909
How can you say these banks are over-reserved when we now see banks in the Pacific rim writing CDO's & SIV's down to 10 cents on the dollar?

Merrill is selling $31bb in face value for 6bb? This will ripple thru fantasyland pretty quick now that we know where the marks should be.

When these long only financial apologists finally give up and stop calling the bottom, and CEO's stop lying about their need not to raise more capital, I will start buying.

disc" Long SKF]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 18:40:36 -0400
How can you say these banks are over-reserved when we now see banks in the Pacific rim writing CDO's & SIV's down to 10 cents on the dollar?

Merrill is selling $31bb in face value for 6bb? This will ripple thru fantasyland pretty quick now that we know where the marks should be.

When these long only financial apologists finally give up and stop calling the bottom, and CEO's stop lying about their need not to raise more capital, I will start buying.

disc" Long SKF]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87028-seacoast-banking-corporation-of-florida-the-news-we-ve-been-waiting-for?source=feed#comment-214078 214078
lol]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 08:07:18 -0400
lol]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85006-why-i-bought-financials-despite-the-mess?source=feed#comment-205778 205778
Even if you are right, what makes you think it will be a V recovery and not an L recovery?

Long SKF, FXP]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 08:10:32 -0400
Even if you are right, what makes you think it will be a V recovery and not an L recovery?

Long SKF, FXP]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/82788-is-the-equities-party-over?source=feed#comment-193110 193110 Thu, 26 Jun 2008 08:37:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79451-the-case-for-aig-patience-required?source=feed#comment-177356 177356
These value guys are no brighter than you or me. Just ask Bill Miller at Legg Mason how his fund is doing this year.

Follow the leader here will just get you to the poorhouse quicker.]]> Sat, 31 May 2008 15:44:10 -0400
These value guys are no brighter than you or me. Just ask Bill Miller at Legg Mason how his fund is doing this year.

Follow the leader here will just get you to the poorhouse quicker.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79451-the-case-for-aig-patience-required?source=feed#comment-177038 177038 Fri, 30 May 2008 18:31:42 -0400