Weighing The Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Some Fedspeak? [View article]
Have we learned nothing from 2008? Can free money really take the place of structural reform in the Euro Zone and Japan? When we will get honest unemployment numbers that include a declining workforce? When will the shadow inventory in the "housing boom" coupled with hedge fund buying of foreclosures be considered when discussing this "new driver of the economy".? When will the pubic realize that most money managers make the majority of their cash from the long side and therefore "Talk their Book" and avoid painful subjects like an aging population in the developed world, bloated health care costs and the continual outsourcing of US jobs to cheap labor locations? So in summary look at Walmart declining sales as a much more accurate barometer than these ridiculously massaged charts. Google Detroit and look at the devastation of a once proud city brought down by the few who profit from the "outsourcing" of the American middle class. Finally enjoy the "Trade" based on the Fed and his conspirators around the world but recognize it for what it is, a precursor to the next crash based on mis priced assets inflated out of thin air.
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
You are missing the political element here and the "New World Economic Order Priorities". Simply put the wealth transfer from the aging developed world to the emerging world is being managed to minimize the damage to the existing wealthy class in the developed world.
Obviously the stock bubble and investment bank bonanza are clear proof of who is doing what to whom! This will allow the "developed" economies run by the 1% to finish the process of undoing all the social safety net provisions and middle class lifestyle improvements over the last 50 years in the name of "competitiveness". Keep in mind that we buy shirts from Bangladesh where they make 30-50 dollars a month!
Viewed in this way a return to the gold standard is simply not going to happen and the world's central banks are shepherding the above mentioned process at the bidding that 1% and that requires "soft" manipulated currencies and continued efforts to keep gold from rising in price.
Are you serious? "From our perspective, perhaps the most surprising thing about the rally in the stock market since 15 November 2012 is that it has been extremely driven by underlying fundamentals"
I'm sorry I must need stronger glasses to see it. I thought you were going to address the virtual bankruptcy of Detroit, the phony unemployment numbers, today's dismal European report, the poor manufacturing numbers and the House's idea to rein in food stamps because there are record numbers of people that qualify under current rules.
If you saw today's market action you would have spotted the Fed's intervention to prevent a collapse in the afternoon as they have been doing for weeks. Yep the Market is looking ahead all right, the problem is that there is no provable there, there! None of this "Trickle down economics" has been trickling anywhere except into the pockets of the few outsourcing whatever jobs they haven't already cut.
New rounds of layoffs world wide are announced every day, wake up and smell the stinking debt that will in the end bury the next generation and place a flower on the grave of what was once a real, free, price discovering stock market.
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
Larry of course you are right on! But traders listen up here is how this plays out!~ Bernanke and whoever follows will unwind when the bond vigilantes pressure them period. It just happened in Japan.
To protect their "thesis" that a highly valued stock market is the be all and end all of policy they will "stair step" out cutting off the heads of traders who believe a consistent downtrend is starting and doing it on an alternate day basis. This is already in evidence in the up 120 down 120 action lately and the unrelenting futures manipulation in the second half of each trading session.
Eventually there will be a reckoning but it will be "obfuscated" with Alan Greenspanian logic and verbiage. Dangerous trading times and a sickening lack of ethics or belief in the free Market.
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
Companies Fighting Against Prostate Cancer [View article]
I am not a Doctor but since my Father and Brother had Prostate Cancer I have been an independent researcher for 15 years and a fan of the Prostate Cancer research center in Los Angeles ( PCRI )
With that said I object to this comment strongly "With only 3% of low-risk prostate cancers being life threatening, this test can be used to give men more options than just surgery and/or radiation"
There is a movement afoot by insurance companies and some ignorant Medical professionals to encourage men NOT to be treated for early stage Prostate Cancer. Ask yourself if you want to die of metastasized Prostate Cancer that eventually eats away at your bones and you die an excruciating death! I watched my Father die this way and my brother recover from it because of early and aggressive treatment. Don't let this new "cost saving movement" steal the best years of your life!! This company may have some valuable new techniques for gaining knowledge but beware of the advice that follows.!!
Weighing The Week Ahead: New Leadership For Stocks? [View article]
"We have experienced a multi-year period of economic skepticism. The US economy has succeeded anyway, and corporate profits have done even better" Are you kidding? Just how distorted this comment is beyond belief. Zero Hedge seems to be the only place where real news albeit tailored to the audience can be found. Revenues on the top line have generally been weak while layoffs and cheap borrowing from an out of control Fed have boosted share prices and created this phony "success" story.
Exactly how is this "success"? Sure as traders and investors we are forced to hold our nose and play the game but a Bernanke led world where the weakest currency wins and valuations are based on the fantasy that "free money" with the Fed buying 70% of treasuries can go on forever is not success. Lets talk real jobs with good wages shall we? Lets hold that meeting in Detroit or Chicago or any other place except the floor of "Disney Land that is the NYSE" The new "normal" is concentrated wealth in the hands of the few, minimum wage job growth, food stamp exponential explosion, the continued flight of jobs to places like the Philippines and students graduating college with huge debt and no jobs.
Now we are entering the final chapter were the retail investor lured by the asset bubble that is a manipulated stock market will flood in just in time to be "sheared" like the sheep that Goldman and the rest believe that they are. Meanwhile the Central Banks and developing world which has been through this before load up on gold at the bargain prices once again forced down through manipulation to mask the decline in real value of the world's fiat currencies.
Yes my friends the deck chairs on the Titanic are almost completely re arranged and Bernanke will hand off the reins just like Alan Greenspan did, before the "stuff" hits the fan and then write a book as Greenspan did protesting that the crash that is sure to follow this madness, was not his fault.
The Coming Demographic Shift: How To Invest [View article]
How about some good news? The developed countries and especially the United States is sitting on an untapped gold mine of historic proportions if they can control one very large issue.
Specifically I am talking about the healthcare industry and the desire of many people from around the world to receive medical treatment in the United States. The simple idea that the USA could become the largest "Medical Tourism" destination in the world is supported by my world travel over the last 25 years and the perception by many of my contacts worldwide, whether correct or incorrect, that Medical care in all its forms are superior in the USA
Were it not for bizarre and frustrating immigration procedures a system of medical tourism visas could be established to encourage what would be a flood of income producing visits to the USA. Shortages of nurses and facilities could easily be addressed with special work visas for qualified personnel as has been the case for nurses over the years.
This would have a multiplier effect on exporting all types of medical devices made or distributed in the USA and provide a job stimulus and even perhaps help older Americans with opportunities in all types of support occupations. The expansion of domestic facilities would also rationalize and increase the efficiency of the domestic case load.
So what is standing in the way of turning the elderly revolution into a thriving industry reducing our debt? Simple, the comparative cost of US services and drugs as compared to other developed nations and more specifically the vast gap in costs as compared to developing countries. If we are truly in a "Global Economy" we must compete in this vital area as we do in cars and other services. The sooner we confront the lawyers, medical associations, insurance companies, hospitals, drug companies etc that unfairly target the USA as a special case or who add unnecessary inflated costs to end results the sooner we could unlock a boom lasting through this century.
If you think I exaggerate here is a quote and link to comparative healthcare costs worldwide. http://to.pbs.org/14YewrO
"$8,233 per year That's how much the U.S. spends per person. Worth it?That figure is more than two-and-a-half times more than most developed nations in the world, including relatively rich European countries like France, Sweden and the United Kingdom. On a more global scale, it means U.S. health care costs now eat up 17.6 percent of GDP."
Call your representative and demand he face down the special interests!!!
The 'Sell In May...' Truth No One Is Telling You [View article]
Hey folks none of what you say matters these days! On Bloomberg today all the usual "pumpers" admitted that this is Ben's market alone and with it some housing strength. Other than that why should the Market go up? Where are the earnings? Jobs? Europe? Japan? Only China and some emerging markets are positive in real terms and they will be dragged down by the undertow of the "developed world".
So while Ben just bought 70% let me repeat that 70% of the last Treasury auction and the HFT traders pump and dump and fund managers talk their book remember to trade short term and move in and out. The ice is VERY THIN and you don't want your assets to drown.
Hmmn lets see Spain contracts 1.5% and has adult unemployment of 27% and 56% for youth worse than our great depression. The rest of Europe is no better and it's China's biggest export market. China is stocked to the gills with commodities and that pushes hard on Australia and other commodity economies.
Next you state "While revenues have been weak with about 50% missing the sales targets, a large chunk of this comes from the energy sector, which has seen a 16.7% decline in revenues due in large part to lower energy prices" as if this is not the "canary in the coal mine" (Sorry hate to pick on coal which is in disaster mode) and yet you say valuations are cheap.
Oh I forgot its Spring and families do need a place to live and the hedge funds are also buying huge numbers of speculative homes.So this is the "savior" of the bull market? Wow! What planet are you on? Planet " I'm talking my book" or I believe what all the pumpers on CNBC and Bloomberg say Planet?
This is all very sad as the majority of people buy what you sell them and the Fed, and Central Banks and the Media are selling them "hopium". I'm not advocating a crash but be aware that only the printed money around the world is floating this boat and when it needs to sail on real numbers, job creation and productivity it will have to sink like a stone to find the real bottom and honest valuations. So in a stock market sense, be careful not to "Swim with the Fishes" as they said in the God Father movie when announcing an unexpected sudden death.
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos Likes Being Long Apple And Short Dell [View article]
AAPL is a great "product" company that made one HUGE mistake. recently. When their stock was at 700 they could have purchased NetFlix for cheap dollars and reinvigorated ITUNES and provided content for the upcoming Digital TV wars about to start in earnest.
Future TV will be be internet based and all new TV's will have a direct input and WIFI and Blue Tooth standard as many do now. The "Eco System" that everyone raves about for AAPL has been co opted by Android with Google marching with mega fiber leading to home penetration and Samsung flooding the market in every niche. AAPL is a cash machine and is now just a better version of Microsoft but without the business software legacy business that preserves Microsoft's cash flow.
AAPl is a "hold" and long term investment. Nothing more. Short any spikes up for quick trades of one to two days only.
Economic Data Poor, But Markets Trend Higher [View article]
Seth buddy! Have you been living in a cave? Mars perhaps? The "Market" is Ben Bernanke period, end of story. Stocks rise when there are more buyers than sellers so someone is buying and that someone is the downstream member banks off loading the residue of the bond purchases and Ben's direct purchases. Can I prove this? Not exactly but real buyers tend to sell bad news and buy good news and since as you have just pointed out there is no "good news" except for rare individual companies its obvious that this is all a house of cards doomed to collapse when the printing of money ends. Meantime we all trade the best way we can and hold our noses.
Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
The current "inflection point" in the Markets can be seen in the increase in average spreads between the bid and ask even in securities averaging more than 1 million shares per day. This is because the HFT traders and remaining specialists are trying to protect themselves from increasingly active short positions which can cascade a stock downward in a hurry. The Fed will continue to bolster the Market to cushion downturns usually after the Euro Market hand off after lunch here.
The Fed seems to be in a pattern of "Punishing" shorting by serious "up" days to prevent a clear trend to the downside. So what we have is a "stair step" down in line with truly poor and manipulated earnings and job reports.
In conclusion my advice for trading is to take very short term positions or very long term positions, swing trading of a few days to weeks seems the most likely to fall victim to being on the wrong "step" of the zig zag Fed strategy. By next Fall and towards the end of the year Bernanke will try to end his "reign" on an up note which will precede a solid mini crash of the Markets. Remember Europe is in recession, China has cooled, the USA's housing boom is a creature of inventory held off the Market and tight lending and the current account is and always will be negative.
The only bright spot is energy and due to the Oil companies desire to make money from oil, as natural gas is still not being substituted to effectively lower prices in large enough quantities and when it is available in sufficient quantities the Conglomerates will export it and costs in the USA will remain too high for a true energy led boom. Last but not least Bernanke is skipping the Jackson Hole conference. No doubt in conference on the revised Fed policy that he does not want to discuss publicly. Lookout below!!
Google: Wait For A Better Entry Point [View article]
While Apple provides a lesson that even the "gods" can fall from grace Google is a not company that you want to wait for a significant pullback before investing in if you have a medium to long term perspective. This is for two reasons. The first is obvious, all attempts to dilute Google's stranglehold on search have failed.
The second has attracted less notice. The roll out of Google 100mgb fiber in three cities is more "disruptive" than any other development in the tech world. This level of bandwidth will complete the move to devices without local hard drives, which have existed to prevent the lag in computing power from slow connections. Online video editing and home hosting of major websites will become the norm. High Def everything everywhere will be the norm. Google will force the other Telcos to compete but as usual they will be late to the party. Google has a shot therefore of "owning" the "cloud" and all that goes with it. Buy Google now and put it in a drawer they are the 800 pound gorilla in the room.
Weighing The Week Ahead: Are You Ready For Some Fedspeak? [View article]
The Bernanke Agenda - It Isn't What You Think It Is [View article]
Obviously the stock bubble and investment bank bonanza are clear proof of who is doing what to whom! This will allow the "developed" economies run by the 1% to finish the process of undoing all the social safety net provisions and middle class lifestyle improvements over the last 50 years in the name of "competitiveness". Keep in mind that we buy shirts from Bangladesh where they make 30-50 dollars a month!
Viewed in this way a return to the gold standard is simply not going to happen and the world's central banks are shepherding the above mentioned process at the bidding that 1% and that requires "soft" manipulated currencies and continued efforts to keep gold from rising in price.
Clarity And The S&P 500 [View article]
I'm sorry I must need stronger glasses to see it. I thought you were going to address the virtual bankruptcy of Detroit, the phony unemployment numbers, today's dismal European report, the poor manufacturing numbers and the House's idea to rein in food stamps because there are record numbers of people that qualify under current rules.
If you saw today's market action you would have spotted the Fed's intervention to prevent a collapse in the afternoon as they have been doing for weeks. Yep the Market is looking ahead all right, the problem is that there is no provable there, there! None of this "Trickle down economics" has been trickling anywhere except into the pockets of the few outsourcing whatever jobs they haven't already cut.
New rounds of layoffs world wide are announced every day, wake up and smell the stinking debt that will in the end bury the next generation and place a flower on the grave of what was once a real, free, price discovering stock market.
The Good News, The Bad News And What's Very Ugly [View article]
To protect their "thesis" that a highly valued stock market is the be all and end all of policy they will "stair step" out cutting off the heads of traders who believe a consistent downtrend is starting and doing it on an alternate day basis. This is already in evidence in the up 120 down 120 action lately and the unrelenting futures manipulation in the second half of each trading session.
Eventually there will be a reckoning but it will be "obfuscated" with Alan Greenspanian logic and verbiage. Dangerous trading times and a sickening lack of ethics or belief in the free Market.
The rumored Hilsenrath "tapering" story - originally expected to come out late Thursday - instead came out after yesterday's market close. It's mostly a summary of what's already known - that Fed officials plan to reduce asset purchases in steps, the timing of which is still being debated. The article leans heavily on Richard Fisher and Charles Plosser, two well-known hawks (and non-voters on the FOMC this year) who would have already tightened if it was up to them. A number of Fed speakers - including Bernanke - are set to speak next week. [View news story]
Companies Fighting Against Prostate Cancer [View article]
With that said I object to this comment strongly "With only 3% of low-risk prostate cancers being life threatening, this test can be used to give men more options than just surgery and/or radiation"
There is a movement afoot by insurance companies and some ignorant Medical professionals to encourage men NOT to be treated for early stage Prostate Cancer. Ask yourself if you want to die of metastasized Prostate Cancer that eventually eats away at your bones and you die an excruciating death! I watched my Father die this way and my brother recover from it because of early and aggressive treatment. Don't let this new "cost saving movement" steal the best years of your life!! This company may have some valuable new techniques for gaining knowledge but beware of the advice that follows.!!
Can Central Bankers Keep Equity Markets Afloat? [View article]
Weighing The Week Ahead: New Leadership For Stocks? [View article]
Exactly how is this "success"? Sure as traders and investors we are forced to hold our nose and play the game but a Bernanke led world where the weakest currency wins and valuations are based on the fantasy that "free money" with the Fed buying 70% of treasuries can go on forever is not success. Lets talk real jobs with good wages shall we? Lets hold that meeting in Detroit or Chicago or any other place except the floor of "Disney Land that is the NYSE" The new "normal" is concentrated wealth in the hands of the few, minimum wage job growth, food stamp exponential explosion, the continued flight of jobs to places like the Philippines and students graduating college with huge debt and no jobs.
Now we are entering the final chapter were the retail investor lured by the asset bubble that is a manipulated stock market will flood in just in time to be "sheared" like the sheep that Goldman and the rest believe that they are. Meanwhile the Central Banks and developing world which has been through this before load up on gold at the bargain prices once again forced down through manipulation to mask the decline in real value of the world's fiat currencies.
Yes my friends the deck chairs on the Titanic are almost completely re arranged and Bernanke will hand off the reins just like Alan Greenspan did, before the "stuff" hits the fan and then write a book as Greenspan did protesting that the crash that is sure to follow this madness, was not his fault.
The Coming Demographic Shift: How To Invest [View article]
Specifically I am talking about the healthcare industry and the desire of many people from around the world to receive medical treatment in the United States. The simple idea that the USA could become the largest "Medical Tourism" destination in the world is supported by my world travel over the last 25 years and the perception by many of my contacts worldwide, whether correct or incorrect, that Medical care in all its forms are superior in the USA
Were it not for bizarre and frustrating immigration procedures a system of medical tourism visas could be established to encourage what would be a flood of income producing visits to the USA. Shortages of nurses and facilities could easily be addressed with special work visas for qualified personnel as has been the case for nurses over the years.
This would have a multiplier effect on exporting all types of medical devices made or distributed in the USA and provide a job stimulus and even perhaps help older Americans with opportunities in all types of support occupations. The expansion of domestic facilities would also rationalize and increase the efficiency of the domestic case load.
So what is standing in the way of turning the elderly revolution into a thriving industry reducing our debt? Simple, the comparative cost of US services and drugs as compared to other developed nations and more specifically the vast gap in costs as compared to developing countries. If we are truly in a "Global Economy" we must compete in this vital area as we do in cars and other services. The sooner we confront the lawyers, medical associations, insurance companies, hospitals, drug companies etc that unfairly target the USA as a special case or who add unnecessary inflated costs to end results the sooner we could unlock a boom lasting through this century.
If you think I exaggerate here is a quote and link to comparative healthcare costs worldwide. http://to.pbs.org/14YewrO
"$8,233 per year That's how much the U.S. spends per person. Worth it?That figure is more than two-and-a-half times more than most developed nations in the world, including relatively rich European countries like France, Sweden and the United Kingdom. On a more global scale, it means U.S. health care costs now eat up 17.6 percent of GDP."
Call your representative and demand he face down the special interests!!!
The 'Sell In May...' Truth No One Is Telling You [View article]
So while Ben just bought 70% let me repeat that 70% of the last Treasury auction and the HFT traders pump and dump and fund managers talk their book remember to trade short term and move in and out. The ice is VERY THIN and you don't want your assets to drown.
The Secular Bull Market Continues [View article]
Next you state "While revenues have been weak with about 50% missing the sales targets, a large chunk of this comes from the energy sector, which has seen a 16.7% decline in revenues due in large part to lower energy prices" as if this is not the "canary in the coal mine" (Sorry hate to pick on coal which is in disaster mode) and yet you say valuations are cheap.
Oh I forgot its Spring and families do need a place to live and the hedge funds are also buying huge numbers of speculative homes.So this is the "savior" of the bull market? Wow! What planet are you on? Planet " I'm talking my book" or I believe what all the pumpers on CNBC and Bloomberg say Planet?
This is all very sad as the majority of people buy what you sell them and the Fed, and Central Banks and the Media are selling them "hopium". I'm not advocating a crash but be aware that only the printed money around the world is floating this boat and when it needs to sail on real numbers, job creation and productivity it will have to sink like a stone to find the real bottom and honest valuations. So in a stock market sense, be careful not to "Swim with the Fishes" as they said in the God Father movie when announcing an unexpected sudden death.
Legendary Short Seller Jim Chanos Likes Being Long Apple And Short Dell [View article]
Future TV will be be internet based and all new TV's will have a direct input and WIFI and Blue Tooth standard as many do now. The "Eco System" that everyone raves about for AAPL has been co opted by Android with Google marching with mega fiber leading to home penetration and Samsung flooding the market in every niche. AAPL is a cash machine and is now just a better version of Microsoft but without the business software legacy business that preserves Microsoft's cash flow.
AAPl is a "hold" and long term investment. Nothing more. Short any spikes up for quick trades of one to two days only.
Economic Data Poor, But Markets Trend Higher [View article]
Crossroads, Will They Ever Let Stocks Go? [View article]
The Fed seems to be in a pattern of "Punishing" shorting by serious "up" days to prevent a clear trend to the downside. So what we have is a "stair step" down in line with truly poor and manipulated earnings and job reports.
In conclusion my advice for trading is to take very short term positions or very long term positions, swing trading of a few days to weeks seems the most likely to fall victim to being on the wrong "step" of the zig zag Fed strategy. By next Fall and towards the end of the year Bernanke will try to end his "reign" on an up note which will precede a solid mini crash of the Markets. Remember Europe is in recession, China has cooled, the USA's housing boom is a creature of inventory held off the Market and tight lending and the current account is and always will be negative.
The only bright spot is energy and due to the Oil companies desire to make money from oil, as natural gas is still not being substituted to effectively lower prices in large enough quantities and when it is available in sufficient quantities the Conglomerates will export it and costs in the USA will remain too high for a true energy led boom. Last but not least Bernanke is skipping the Jackson Hole conference. No doubt in conference on the revised Fed policy that he does not want to discuss publicly. Lookout below!!
Google: Wait For A Better Entry Point [View article]
The second has attracted less notice. The roll out of Google 100mgb fiber in three cities is more "disruptive" than any other development in the tech world. This level of bandwidth will complete the move to devices without local hard drives, which have existed to prevent the lag in computing power from slow connections. Online video editing and home hosting of major websites will become the norm. High Def everything everywhere will be the norm. Google will force the other Telcos to compete but as usual they will be late to the party. Google has a shot therefore of "owning" the "cloud" and all that goes with it. Buy Google now and put it in a drawer they are the 800 pound gorilla in the room.