G. L. Turner

Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years

Pssst....

Guess what? The Mayan Calendar predicted this "shift to the East" of "global energy"..(power, wealth and influence) a couple thousand years back...to occur, get this - at this very point in time. Winter, 2012 is the tipping point of the ppwer shift from West to the East...

Pondr that.

Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

It is good to see that the majority of posters here have "finally caught on"...save Saildog and yank...

If you listened to CNBC this AM (Oct 12th) you would have seen how they are "back in the game of being GS and JPM's shills" (including Kilduff) again to promote higher OIL, Gasoline, Diesel and Heating Oil prices....I had to call them and complain...YES, the energy markets are now controlled by a few WS firms...it only takes $9B to control the global price of oil in the markets...That is not much money ofr these firms and a few of their hedge fund clients to poney up and move the market...

Also, I thought the GS' Murti rolled out the "promotional" $150 to $200 prediction in early May of 2008, setting up the push towards the $147 high, a high that stop at that point as a result of the sense that teh rally was over since the golden boys had already slipped moved mid-June with the "big short", a month ahead of their 'sheeple clients' realizing that "something had happened" to the dream...but, we had a shadow culprit - "sub-prime" to point to divert attention. Hmmm.

Fisking Scientific American on Peak Oil

jerrydd -

It is absurd to say the the world hit peak oil last year when oil hit $147/barrel. Supply was increasing ahead of demand that had already begun to fall...

Rather, that is exactly what those "financial engineers" on WS and down in Houston wanted you to believe, and you do.

The reason oil dropped so quickly from mid-July to Dec. is that the perpetrators of this myth had decided that it was just too risky to continue to promote their nonsense, given the political heat that was building and the hearings that were underway.

It would be a shame if "their games" really were exposed, for then we might just get some real regulation, then "the game" would not be able to be played again this year, and the next, and the next....

So, they shorted, made huge profits on the down side....and were back at it this year, even as Gensler putzed around threatening regulation changes while he dragged his feet and delayed real action.

We won't see those high prices in the near term due to constraints in supply. Rather, we will see them again soon only because of no changes in margin requirements and little to NO transparency in the futures markets..
That's a lot of specualtive profit to see slip away...so

Why I'm Skeptical About Asset Allocation

Oh well,
Here I am back here again.

"Agree with Mike Masters, as he was right and Gov. Sachs and kin were wrong..."
They weren't wrong...they were creating the pricing scenario/bubble that the shills were claiming were s/d fundamentals.
Who do you think was the first to short in June 2008, ahead of the other funds that crashed in the downdraft starting the next month.

Does Crude's Price Reflect Reality?

To Mr. Clark - the answer is simple - Govmad Sachs wants it to rise in price, keeps thier traders business hustling sheeple into their CIF. It's 'Good for Business'...as in their business. They have learned to play the crude and RBOB futures like a violin, moving up and down the pricing range based on their 'news leaks' and "analysis reports"...

To Mr. Big - In studying the movement of OIL and RBOB daily for the last two years...the value of the dollar relative to Oil Prices is very overrated. This, too, was a "handy urban myth" that was used to divert the 'real gaming' going on last year and again this year...

Last June (2008) the value of the dollar was, according to the IMF testimony in Congress, accountable for about $10 premium, max, on the price of crude - that takes it from $80 to $9- at the most...not teh $147 it was heading too...

Today, Oil should be $58 - $61 and RBOB, which is not really an international commodity, $1.55-60 max. Yet, you'd think that the dollar effected this price by $.50.

Commodity Investors' Hedging Habits Not New

But Tim,

Some good points and insight - but it just helps to substantiate the fact, as I have contended for over 18 months, these guys were able to put themselves in such a place that they could make money coming and going. The idea that hedgers should stay long in the commodity markets is fundamental to GS' strategy for make their whole scheme work - in their favor (their bank account), and is a huge obstacle to the proper functioning of the markets for the participants who really need them to work. Further, the net result of long index money in commodities is to drive inflation up, artifically, at the expense of the American People/Economy - and, which at a certain point up the ladder, becomes a 'bubble' and leads to a crash...hurting many.

There is absolutely nothing of value for long players to just be swapped in and out with a 'rollover' by some financial powerhouse, when the net result will inevitable be that many will lose a lot and just a few will profit.

One finally word of caution: it's called the "ONE LAST SUCKER THEORY"...those that come late to the party late and plop down long positions will certainly get burned!!

How many hedge funds and pension funds, that were 'wooed' into the index funds in long positions by certain 'analysts' predicitons of $200 Oil, are NOW NO LONGER HERE??

When Goldman Might Have Failed

Hey Moon,

Let's add to your comments the fact that GS successfully engineered the $147 Oil Frenzy, stuffed their Index Fund Participants into it, at their peril since they were one of the first to short oil in June, ahead of the rest of the sheeple. Their own in-house accounts did just fine, mind you...

Add to this, the fact that apparently almost, if not, each year GS routinely steps over the boundaries and incurrs fines and penalities from the government, but actually just plans to run aground as they look at this as a "routine cost of doing business", a cost to the multibillion dollars they rake in when stepping out of bounds..

Yes, GS (and Big Banks), Big US Oil, Big Ins and Big Pharma have got to go...

Look, these are the 4 Biggest Lobbying Groups in the US - and here are where our ills lie....

The ABCs of Oil Manipulation

OK - This is great info, Chris. Thanks!!

And, you have 'been in the trenches' and know of that which you speak...this is exactly what I was telling the Dem Congress last year, try telling the Reps, but hey, you know who they march to...

Now, can we get this info through to Obama and Gensler??

Can we get the greed meister's out of teh markets and government too and get back to having markets and an economy that works for all of us?

Oil Price Outlook: Steady as She Goes

Hope you will be correct, as $60 to $65 is what teh CEos of US Big Oil say they need to make it work -

However, to that the Financial Speculators will add the 'value of the dollar'....greatly exaggerated of course, and - "and I disbelieve that commodity speculation is a sticky factor, so my oil forecast for 2010 is based solely on fundamentals." - (your statement) will not hold up, cause Government Sachs will se to ti taht we have "COMMODITY SPECULATION" divorced from real supply/demand fundamentals...

So, don't get too happy too soon!

CFTC's Gary Gensler calls news reports about the Commission reversing its stance on oil-price factors "premature and inaccurate," saying it's inappropriate "to speculate on data that the Commission will be releasing in the future -- data that none of the Commissioners has seen."

Yeah - It sounded like he was in a hurry to say this before he comes in front of the Government Sachs and JPM 'men in the room tomorrow'...(his former employer)

He is runninng for cover already -

Wonder if ol's Lloyd is coming to "BROWBEAT" him too, threaten his pension, or something...

BTW, Donahue's testimony, is, as was similar to Newsome's last year...not exactly carrying a smell of reality to it...

and, the CME and ICE want to regulate their markets themselves - position limits and margins, (this is code for granting exceptions) -
like they "will insure" that we don't see the 'manipulation' (legal or not) that occurred last year and the likes of such we are seeing this spring..

Give me a break - our country/economy is in the toilet because we are allowing the wrong players with the wrong ideals to run things...

The biggest 4 Lobbys run the country - and they are at the center of our biggest economic/social ills...

Wake up sheeple!!

Was the AIG Bailout a Goldman Bailout by Proxy?

Well, Oh Angry banker - You are definitely 'Odd man Out' here -

and rightfully so.

GS' ( JPM's ) Oil market manipulation of 2008 and even this spring..needs investigating too...!

The Proposal to Limit Commodity Positions Will Hurt Free Markets and Economic Growth

Zach - Your article is throwing off signals that you are in somebody's sandbox other than the American Consumer - like maybe Government Sachs's Club, or something...come on, man -

Your closing sentences are meant to be inflammatory and are not indicative of the truth: "The assumption that the government can accurately determine value or steer prices towards a “correct” range is absurd. While it is important to make sure that one player or group of players cannot buy up all of the supply and then hold resources hostage (known as “cornering” a market), the oil and natural gas market is large enough to make this virtually impossible."

This is not waht the regs are needed for - The Gov. Is not trying to determine the value, not is it trying to steer prices- rather it needs to ensure that the markets are working for the benefit of the producers/users...not the Financial Houses that DO NOT CARE if the economy/markets work properly or not, so long as they make huge profits...these guys are so dollar focused that they have 'lost their way'.

Further, the collaborative efforts of GS, JPM and a few others have been very instrumental in 'moving prices', and then shorting the markets they helped to gin-up, quite well, thank you. (Sheeple investors, beware-)

So, in writing what you have, it is not really based on reality...

That is like the those two Republican Fortune Tellers - Bush & Cheney - telling us that the Un-contested mergers of the former US Big Oil Companies in 2004 (8 consolidating down to 3), followed by their ENRGY ACT of 2005 was going to be good for competition and the American Consumer...

Yeah right - let's see, with the small exception of 3.5 months earlier this year, since mid-2005, gasoline has been almost double to triple what it was prior to the mergers, and will trend to at least 'double and more' going forward, ever since the mergers and EA. (RBOB is now an Index play too along with Oil..)

So, give us a break, Index Funds, "Analyst Reports" broadcasted across the CNBC landscape, and people who confuse properly functioning futures markets with regulated markets, dark markets, etc. - pollute the real functions that the economy needs from the commodity markets...

Not wanting to see the TRUTH doesn't mean it 'ain't so'!

Gasoline Inventory to Sales Ratio: Is Demand Stabilizing?

What we are seeing in the futures markets, separate from real traders and hedgers trying to make rational trades, is a small group of pariah who have figured how to 'game' the entire system, seeking to use manipulative instructional analyst comments, which the media suck up to, to reel in a numenr of sheeple, only to periodically 'short' them all every few months.

In the meantime, the head of the CFTC stands by watching his former cohorts give it to us all in the backside - again and again and again...and yes, as Karen Consumer stated so vividly, there is much less demand, and mcuh more pain out here on the Main Streets of the world. And the WH is draging its heels of reg reform!

Noticed the Oil Backup?

Tobi, You are right on point!

Were Oil Traders Too Bullish?

Hmmm...Hardwood, you are usual on point! you wrote: "The best article I ever saw was written by two guys from Stanford who did an analysis that World Wide oil could be controlled with just $11Bln. Hum, so a market that has the power to destroy our GDP and economy can be controlled with just $11BLn. Now, I know we are all altruistic investors but what if some people got together and decided that they would sell the dollar short bid oil up and short the dow on the basis of the negative feedback loop would raise input costs to producers creating a margin squeeze then they would have to raise prices to consumers- thus killing the consumer. Now, how much money could be made off such a trade? Maybe we should ask Soros."

So, let's ask further, who got some extra pocket change from Mr. Paulson a few months back - I believe it was some $13BN channeled through AIG's rescue...so we could lay off $11BN in the oil futures trade and use the other two between shorting the dollar and the Dow...and this was money that was 'supposedly already lost'...so it makes real good dice-rolling dough, right?

Hmmm...wonder who has that kind of pocket change??