G. L. Turner

Oil to Retest $40/Barrel by Year-End?

Let's go back to Fundamentals, GUYS!

Remember last mid-spring in Congress, the top US OIL Execs adn Shell and BP US, testified that they were quite pleased with oil at $65...they coule drill and refine adn make money...OIL was @ $90-95 at the time, and climbing. (In later hearings, when the Reps really didn't want the Spot Limits and sunlight to fall on Gov Sachs' actions, they raised the price range to about $90..."cause of Iran tensions and the dollar".

60 to 90 days later, it was headed back to the $65 range...

The Saudis told Bush in January 2008, when oil was moving through $75 towards $90, (round 2), that he needed NOT to ask them to pump more - there was not a shortage! Rather, it was "OUR FINANCIAL SPECULATORS" that were driving the prices up...BUSH scoffed, and they rightly sent him home, empty-handed. You got that, the Saudis told us that we had already run the price up too much...adn that if we didn't turn the problem around, we were headed for a global recession (geez, how many times that I write that?) --- But, now, only housing could cause recessions....

Iran, Russia and Bush played a 'comment/speculation' game using 'threatening comments' on the world stage all spring, when things were quiet, CBNC, a shill for the Reps and GS/JPM, taking their cue from Gov Sachs, kept telling us the dollar was weak and that OIL needed to be higher. That China and India, who statistically did not 'move markets' were moving them in earth shakeningly ways...

So, we let these Greed Meisters wet the appetites of OPEC, Russia and Vene, and we trained them to like the taste of $75 - $80 OIL. So, now, by using our only tool - a torn and battered economy, can we wean them of those price ranges, and get the reality of $65 OIL back into the global economy...

When we stop letting those who 'control' without regrds to the damage their greed causes, we will see our economy rebound and prosperity return...In the meantime, it has/is relocating to the East!
GT

Crude Prices Plunge - UltraShort ETF Positioned for Profits

This guy is why we are in the mess we are in - "dust of my hummer"...give me a break...the current price drop in gas is related to oil...but is also a political reality - oil mergers in late 2003 early 2005 saw gas prices doubling by early 2006 - before the price of oil got going...gas prices fell about $1 between August 2006 and election day...hmmm.... good try Bush/GOP.

Yes, we will see a sustain pricing stratum of @$65 (actual cost to produce and sell) - to $88...the price that includes speculative/geo-pol/do... valuation profits and the price the Saudis want) for the next 24 months...but, soon it will work its way back to over $100, and with no position limits, another bubble rally will get going as world supply and demand start to find equilibirum at 88mbpd in mid 2010....
We should take advantgae of this reprieve and go green, or we will find ourselves in $150 in late 2011 / early 2012 and back into another global recession...

Forget $100 a Barrel - Oil Will Plummet to $30

1) Oil will go back to $75 as per the will of the Saudisa dn The Kuwaitis...who split with the Bush/Cheney/Putin/Iran club earlier this year.
This way, they control it, on balance, in the world. They don't won't the new oil sourcees to supplant them and their revenue streams.
2) India and China's actually demand, while appearing robust statistically, are, in the aggregate, not large numbers. 13 million cars in China to 200 plus million cars in the US. If they average 6% car growth and we cut back driving several % points per annum over the next 4 years...the difference in actaully consumption (demand) is liking looking at the statistical weight of a watermelon to that of a grapefruit...
3)- Therefore, when the new discoveries, and there are more annoucements coming soon....are here in the next 4 to 5 years...there will be plenty of supply ofr a good sustained period..
4)- The biggest consumer of OIL, the most dangerous consumer of OIL, and the real culprit behing the high prices whihc were not connected to TRUE S/D Fundamental Facts - is the dark army of Goldman Slacks, MS, JPM and BBank. Once they are 'Reeled IN' and not allowed to 'consume oil (futures)'...prices will stay steady and in balance for years..
BEWARE -- they have purchased an interest in the new Dubai Exchange so that they might once again run up prices - as they will be out of the range of the lame CFTC and US Government.
Greg