G. L. Turner

Consumer Confidence Dips Due to Jobs - And the Price of Oil?

Ferndinand, to claim to be such an expert, you constantly show your bias and ignorance, Just read the article in SA yesterday (or the day before) about the amount of hedge fund/GS/MS/JPM money ("managed money") that had poured into long positions in just the last 3 weeks.

You have got to be a shill for one or several of these WS pariah!

Please get your facts straight instead of trying to lead us down some 'intended' path of maya.

Time to Short Oil?

as 'untrusting' says: "But as has been pointed out by numerous authors .... when you have Goldman Sachs and 2% of the traders (High Frequency Traders, quants, algos) trading between 50-70% of the entire daily volume on the market, you get that disconnect."

Yep, ole Gov Sachs has become quite adept at leader alot of sheeple into these rallies, most of them their clients, and then taking a short position for their "in-house" positions...raking it ina fter getting the fees for placing thier clients in the mix...

Oh well, another day at teh office for the Greed Meisters, as the rest of the world burns.

My next question is this - Does Exxon and Conoco call up ole Lloyd and ask if they can up their refining capacity or should they lower it and for how long? The RBOB up and down, in the face of fundamentals that suggest it should be around $1.55, is quite a hoax at best. Some sheeple are going to get creamed better on these rallies....again!

Remember $20 Oil? Looks Like It's Coming Back

Verleger is "HOT AIR"!!!

Last year, his personal 'testimony' via a report for ole' Oil/banker Senator himself, Pete Dominci, to be read to counter Mike Master's accurate contention that financial, long investor 'speculators' were causing severe price mis-allocations in the futures market, said that - "$147 Oil was strictly supply and demand related..."

course if this had been the case, oil would NOT have turned on a dime so quickly crashed so fast last July like it did!

The only thing that could have done that was when the supreme greed meister, GOVERNMENT SACHS, had gottne everyone in the game and knew it was time to 'get out first' and decided to pull the plug by being the first "to short' in mid-June!!

OIL will run between $55 to $68 for the balance of 2009...providing that Gov Sachs doesn't buy up the new CFTC' this fall...

CFTC: Fire Up the Lobbying Machine

Right On, Bone Yard! - you get it!

Fed Dampens Summer Crude Trade

Stephen,

You seem to omit the effects of manipulative trading that the US Big Oil cartel and the Government Sachs 'analysts'/traders/sto... have on this spring's overzealous oil and RBOB futures. They tried to once again "create a bubble"...since they got away with it so well last year and think that it will be next year before the Obama Admin gets any amount of regs in place, therefore they see this as an area that they can control and win at on many levels...

The reality is, though, they have turned the recovery around quickly, and to their own detriment, as demand, already soft, has fallen even further due to much of a price run-up. At some point, they, or those they suck into these false trades, will get burned enough, that they will go away and leave the oil/gas market to the producers and users...and sanity and reasonable pricing will return.

Crude Prices Plunge - UltraShort ETF Positioned for Profits

This guy is why we are in the mess we are in - "dust of my hummer"...give me a break...the current price drop in gas is related to oil...but is also a political reality - oil mergers in late 2003 early 2005 saw gas prices doubling by early 2006 - before the price of oil got going...gas prices fell about $1 between August 2006 and election day...hmmm.... good try Bush/GOP.

Yes, we will see a sustain pricing stratum of @$65 (actual cost to produce and sell) - to $88...the price that includes speculative/geo-pol/do... valuation profits and the price the Saudis want) for the next 24 months...but, soon it will work its way back to over $100, and with no position limits, another bubble rally will get going as world supply and demand start to find equilibirum at 88mbpd in mid 2010....
We should take advantgae of this reprieve and go green, or we will find ourselves in $150 in late 2011 / early 2012 and back into another global recession...

Oil: Remember Iran?

There was a $5 geo-political premium that was in the price at $100...it was stretch/exaggerated/in... by another $5-$7 via the excess video barrell chunks of money in teh futures prices, along with a $20 premium of dollar valuations..that was on top of $65 of production, shipping and taxes...everything above that was Goldman Sachs led false rumor speculation...notice the CFTC has yet to tell us the whole story behind $147 oil??

Roger Wiegand: Oil to Reach New Highs by Year-End

Yeah, this guys is having lunch with the idiots at Goldman Sachs and is drinkng the same kool-aid. Remember, GS is responsible for the excessive commodity bull market with the promotion of their GSCI which they really got moving in late 2005. Their "analysts' are anything but independent are are in business to 'predict' the self-fulfilling future that their trading departments demand of them...Interesting how many fools follow thier nonsense - like MS and JPM and AIG - BTW are all these guys either under are headed that way...do no think for one moment that it was all bad paper that these WS firms were holding that were draggin g them down, they lost their shirts this summer and last/this month when their view of the world (ie. commodity prices) caused us all to go off the cliff....The Saudis have stated all year that $88 oil is what we should have and this is where they will prop it up by the end of the year if OPEC prevails...and all that sideline money - it ain't rushing back into commodities...plus we are going to have position limits...So, look at the source of the article and the sources he is using to support his predictions...he is hoping it will will go up becuase he went long in June for 6mos..Buh Bye!

Is There a Bounce Opportunity in the Energy Sector?

Why do the dimwitted Republicans think Obama and the Dems are going to tax the Oil companies to death..give me a break...What they will do is remove the give away tax the Bushie Boy insisted they have in 2005 'for developing alternative' fuels/sources of energy - that THEY HAVEN"T DONE...The oil companies make reasonable normal profits, based on returns on sales, but they just rake in so much money based on volume but it seems obscene.

Speculation and the Price of Oil: An Unfriendly Note

Meant - The 'which is NOW under investigation'...
(sorry)

Speculation and the Price of Oil: An Unfriendly Note

Mr. Banks - You are really looking down the rabbit hole...as opposed to looking at the facts and drawing the 'correct conclusion'. You say you agree with the Treas Sec...and M. Masters came up with this new theory of some kind of new investor that was now it the Futures Markets, creating the dysfunction that has been existing there, but really exploded since late 2005. You obviously are not as bright as you deem nor do you not research your subjects well at all...

Your Treas Sec, who not too long ago came over from GS, would in NO WAY say that the OIL Pricing Problem was a result of "SPECULATION"...WHY? well, 1)- He would Be Kicked of the Team as this goes against the B/C Regime's Promise to BIG OIl for Drill, Drill Drill!...and his time is running out.(Although Bush finally mentioned that there was a little bit of that in there..)

2) But more interestingly. It amazes me just how many of the 'educated pundits' - educational, media and political are so blind to reality. MM did not invent "This New Passive Long Investor" and the concept of Commodity Index Funds that ignore the principles of supply and demand in the futures markets. NOPE - he didn't jusut make this theory up.... Guess who INVENTED these new players... If you didn't guess the Golden Boys, then you got ti wrong. And more interesting, the whole idea of this and its first major promotion was done during the years that your boy, the Treas Sec, was at the head of GS.

Do you think for one moment with all the heat coming down on GS and the CFTC, which is not under a DJ investigation for whether or not their "INTERIM REPORT" on Speculation was so benign and released inappropriately as if perhaps it was done so by pressure from the top, that Paulson WOULD SAY ANYTHING ELSE BUT THAT the extreme price run-up was a result of anything other than - Duh, "Chinese Demand"...Wake up my friend!

Follow the money trail and see who needs to protect/cover up something and you will always find the parties responsible for the problems.
G

Oil Markets, Speculators, and Vitol Group's Controlling Stake

Think about this: Vitol's 11% stake was what the CFTC, a very lame and politically/financiall... controlled agency of guess who...psst - the WH Gang and their newest Sidekick - Our Illustrious Teas Sec, the recent former Chair/CEO of guess who...psst - 'GS' home of the CIF, and where and under who's regime, the concept of 'passive long investor' and the CIF was promoted heavily starting in mid-2005 - said was found in the NYMEX.

What was not mentioned, is what might have been their positions also at the same time on the ICE and on the OTC, nor any swaps they might have holding. Granted, I am 'speculating' as I don't know for sure what amounts they had, but it stands to reason that a player this size would be involved in more than just one of the trading exchanges.

However, the more interesting part of the CFTC's action is that they picked a foreign firm to rat out and offer up to Congress, the media and the American Public just to insure us that they are officially doing their job. They have so far, it appears, turned a blind eye to the two firm's that have been controlling I believe even larger percentages. The glorious American WS firms of GS and MS, who are on the 'advisory board' (of the CFTC) that is suppose to be looking into this matter.

Knowing that these two firms positions were huge, and while they might look clean on the NYMEX, if you add their entire Oil Commodity holdings all together -swaps, OTC, ICE, NYMEX and live inventories for 'investment purchases' (?) - I wonder what they were as recently as June? I think that they have been controlling something in the neighborhood of 25-30%, each, of the world's oil by way of futures and other holdings and positions along with management of client's holdings. Geez, how could prices rise so dramatically and so decoupled from REAL S/D Fundas under such circumstances? [Note: don't say, yes but look at the recent decline. Listen, the decline was due to some hedge/pension fund managers coming to their senses and getting out starting in mid-June as they saw the damage being done...but there is still a lot of spec passive long money keeping the oil and gas market it propped up at present at $115. Oil truly should be in @ $80 at present with the current geo, weather and dollar situations.]

How many of you noticed how the fair headed wonders seemed so awfully determined last week to spark another oil price rally. They pushed the traders, CNBC and the 'rest of the herd' to bid up the price of oil back towards the $149 mark in the next few weeks by placing some action lead off by their 're-iteration' of their previous "analyst's reports" (second time since the drop got underway, an indication that not BELEIVED!)...Kind of makes you think that they just might have some futures coming due in Oct. or Dec., that they placed in April, May or June in the range of $150 that they are in great need of getting covered....

BTW, Congress is not however kooled down on this matter...they are in recess. The Republicans, led by the WH gang, in an effort to protect the aforementioned firms from the ravages of REAL CFTC scrutiny, hurried to tie the new Commodity Act to the Energy Policy Debate in a effort to stall its passage. Wonder why, the ACT, in and of itself is a good thing to protect us all. Head that GS was running through the offices of Congress lobbying very heavily in June and early July so as to try and stop the bill. They sure did get CNBC to back away from being forthright in its look/see/comments on the Commodity Act. Shamefully, they, being Republican Front Men for “Big Business”, chose to downplay it.

Was the Rep. linkage/stalling maneuver an attempt to protect these advisory board members? Was the fact that the CFTC put out that stupid "interim Report" a ruse to through off some members of Congress and the American Public.
Hmmm!!

Is the Commodities Bull Market Over?

The prices in commodoties began to retreat significantly in early June - this was a result of the spotlight beginning to be focused on several key price provokers - namely 4 notable WS Frims, who had, over the last 4 years engineered the CIFs and had talked a lot of Pension Money,etc. into moving into the area. When Congress started pushing the CFTC to take a look, the heat was getting too close...and the Managers of the Pension Funds, etc. who had been enticed into playing the 'passive long commodity investor' game suddenly began to realize the damage their 'asset allocations' were causing to the global economy and the other 98% of their portfolios. So yes,"Investor Sentiment" did change as these fund managers begin to wise up and start to exit theri long positions....add to this the laying off of radical "ginned up" 'analysts reports' and saber-rattling by Bush/Iran/Putin, and things 'shifted' by mid-June. The outflow on monies begin to move back into the stock portfolios and the dollar finally had a chance...so the 'perfect storm' of factors that were driving high prices was reversed and they are working in favor of the other direction...yes, the 'manipulated bubble' was burst.
However, get ready, the bad boyes of WS jsut bought inot the new Dubai Oil Futres Exchange - now they can begin to 'manipulate' beyond the reach of the CFTC shortly....
Round II begins early next year.
G

Why New Oil Price Highs?

Yep!
the bush/cheney favorable oil merger/bigbusiness/tax breaks fo rthe oil companies (remember his energy bill) policy started it...
Then the extremely greedy WALL Street Hedge Hogs had to all jump in and they have taken it to the limits "as a game"....But, alas, they are killing the goose that lays the golden eggs...and in the meantime more families slip into poverty and starvation with each dolar rise in the price.add to this the completely inept economic polcies of this admin and voila, you get oil that is price now, according toeh Sauis, $40 over true market fundamentals...everyon... call teh white house and tell them to open the spigot to the SPR. Also call Goldman Sachs ...(212-902-1000). ..( the brass there) and ask them to call off their greedy oil traders -they manage a large portion of this oil trading mess. ...These high prices are causing people to starve worldwide. Further, our foreign debt is taking us over the brink... big problem...course the admin doesn't want to talk about that or the fact that inflation, in all areas, is at least double what they are telling us...
Things are serious at the aggregate level and at the household level.
Y

Oil Would Be $65 if the Dollar Had Stayed Strong - AGI

Monday, on CNBC, they had an analyst saying that this rise in commodity prices was in food now and that the 'next play' was to start specualting in meat futures...

We are witnessing an infathomable level of greed, from bush/cheney and their Texas Oil Buddies and hedge fund operators who are so caught up in their own greed that they are failing to see that they are killing the goose that has laid the golden eggs that they so covet!
(The top 50 hedge fund managers made $29 Billion last year...this is "money made on money"...financed and paid for by the working class...) Over the course of history, it has been these huge shifts of wealth from the working class to a few elitists that have caused riots and wars....the riots have started...soon the wars..!
Y