longshort

Investing in China: The Long Term View

If you count on Shanghai composite index to calculate the return, do you know how it is compiled. Actually it is mis-designed. Even every stays same but with one big new IPO, it will get boosted. Although new issues usually gain more than 100%, your return would not get any improvement unless you could win this lottery.

China's Looming Hangover?

For sure the growth is top priority for communist gov. Without it, it would lose its legitimacy. But if you count the social benefits and other invisible income, the gini would be unimaginalble high. Anybody think the sustainable growth with such gini is mission possible?

China: Real Estate Loan Growth May Be Slowing

Agree. B share would be good haven if you want to get some exposure in China. But your risk tolerance level still counts. Liquidity or marketability discount would be the price.

When and Where to Go in China

even though I don't trust Chinese Accounting either, the market is not behaving according to accounting, especially the data showing previous performance. Just put this risk into consideration and give some deeper discount in your model. It doesn't mean 1200 would be the entry point

Will China Have Lower Inflation in May?

higher Gini prevents China to pursue stimulating consumption since export share almost dominates GDP growth

China Quake Increases Market Uncertainty

no linear relationship between previous "right" policies and future ones.

As said standard statement, previous performance is not indicator of future performance, we should rely on that.

China: PBoC Is Biased Toward More Tightening

I would say one-off reevaluation would not be impractical as it would not help free interest rate policy but hurt export too much. The reason is the mechanism through which rate influence the investment. I don't think it is market-driven.

China's Economic Trouble May Just Be Beginning

As to GDP growth in China, it is really easy to get double digits if you look back the the growth equation and have the ideas about the second generation of baby boomers in China. But the growth could not be such imbalanced one. The allocation of wealth is not fair, even it supports the higher saving ratio. So the risk is not purely about economy but the mixture of sudden economic and politic disasters.

China's Economic Trouble May Just Be Beginning

Chinesepetti, if you are trying to help Chinese, please do not do like this.

China's Economic Trouble May Just Be Beginning

To chinesepetti,

I am really shocked by what you said. Give us the logic and reasoning, not the screaming.

I believe the extreme nationalism would be the dirty source of Hitler

Considerations on Investing in China

To Chinesepetti
Neither do I wish China ill. If you like American history, please appreciate its tolerance of different opinions. I definitely agree with what you said about truth and news. What my points are based is what I experienced during recent 10 years. So please don't just call anybody shamful. Present your points based on the truth and logic. Did you verify the truth anyway? How? The obvious conflicts of interests doesn't mean Mr. Petti lies. I didn't see your logic. But you always taking something for granted. Criticizing the system in China doesn't mean getting out totally. Don't be so absolute. Actually the world doesn't exist in 1 or 0. It should be something else between 0 and 1. Filthy air and pollution is the price. If you'd like do business with China or travel in China, you should tolerate it. If you feel the risk not worthy, you could get out. But everybody has different tolearance of risk. As you can't tolerate the criticize. That's OK. But learn your logic.

Considerations on Investing in China

To chinesepetti:
There are people working on getting through credit crisis.

But as you said, wishing ill for other nation is not going to help get over your own problems. Don't waste your time arguing with others. If you could, please work out the plan to help China out, especially for those potential middle-class and ordinary working class. I really hope so because I am a Chinese

Considerations on Investing in China

Everybody would be unsatisfied with what he did before. When one new financial inovation comes to the market, I guess there is no guarantee we have the auditing tech in place.

Just like the new medicine, FDA approval is a dilemma. Shall we use this medicine? For this, we must wait. Just like the patent dilemma, shall we wait years to get through approval procedure. this is not necessary.

My opinion is that we should not wait years to use those financial tech or inovations until every enforcement is in place. Otherwise, we can't get an efficient market, which costs more. So when there is situations, what would be the remedy? I think I havn't seen any in China.

BTW, people don't have to be perfect to criticize. If the prequalification for criticizing others is that you should be perfect. I think only GOD could do so.

Considerations on Investing in China

To duder,
I am really surprised about your logic as a law professional.

As a former auditor in big four auditing Chinese public companies listing in US, HK, Singapore, UK and China exchanges, I really worry about the transparancy issues. Even audited by the prestigious firms, you could not trust the statements without any enforcement system. Let's say, what if you become one of victims in those accounting shenanigans. If they happened in one Chinese listing company, I would not expect there will be another Anthur Anderson. If you say you have the experience to handle that, I would say you now have tremendous opportunities to file class suit. When I used to be a lawyer practising in China, I didn't find there were any. So Law professor, do give me a call when you find some.