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icandoitdon

icandoitdon
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  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    well, that's what makes markets. i wish you the best....
    Apr 7 01:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    people have been arguing that AAPL is undervalued for years. i'll put my money on the market's judgment.

    it's always been apparent that AAPL would be unable to continue the rate of innovation it enjoyed between the the introduction of the i phone and i pad. the market always knew it and that's why the stock's p/e was always modest compared to its growth rate.

    AAPL had a great run but it's over. i phone 15 and i pad 10 won't drive the stock higher.

    as for cash on the balance sheet, that's backward looking. it is one of the reasons the stock has the support it does. take away the cash and AAPL trades much lower. the pigs at the trough, like ichan, would desert it in droves.
    Apr 6 12:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Only 20 Companies That Matter [View article]
    "Do you think low borrowing costs are really helping Apple out right now? Google?

    yes i do. many companies are reducing share counts dramatically. in the last 12 months alone PFE has reduced shares outstanding by about 12% to cite just one example. IBM has consistently used share buybacks to boost EPS. why do you think AAPL issued debt at all given their billions on the balance sheet. that's right....to buy back shares. they're down about 4% in the last 12 months. the value of that reduction is about $23 billion.

    the sole factor responsible for the "deleveraging" of the consumer is reduced interest rates. aside from that there has been no significant deleveraging. american consumers are as drunk on debt as they've ever been and it's what keeps the retail industry in business. where do you think the retail business would be without the ZIRP?

    moving on to emerging markets, ZIRP is what keeps the default rates low and permits many companies in these markets to remain in business.

    and how about our the effect of ZIRP on our own federal government's ability to fund its massive deficits?

    as for P/E ratios, do you think they would be anywhere close to current levels without ZIRP? give investors a reasonable alternative to stocks and they would desert the market in droves.

    your article was well written; but you've completely missed the effect the federal reserve has had on current market values.

    Apr 5 11:44 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And Net Asset Value Sustainability Analysis (Post Fiscal Q2 2014 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    st. jude medical.....Mr. bronson
    Mar 28 08:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And Net Asset Value Sustainability Analysis (Post Fiscal Q2 2014 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    my hat's off to you, mahgni!
    Mar 28 08:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital's Dividend And Net Asset Value Sustainability Analysis (Post Fiscal Q2 2014 Earnings) - Part 1 [View article]
    if you have a $1 million portfolio you could be either very smart or very foolish.

    it worked out for a brother of mine, who kept most of his portfolio tied up in a single stock for almost 30 years before he died wealthy. now his brain dead kids get to spend it. i still don't know if he was smart, dumb or just lucky.

    Mar 27 12:51 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Is Monetizing A Staggering Amount Of U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    jerryofnc...

    i'm puzzled why you give a free pass to the fed, as it is the chief regulator of the banking system that was/is responsible for the "unchecked expansion of credit." the fed continues to peddle more of the same with its zero interest rate policy.

    the fed also has enormous regulatory power over the financial markets by margin-setting authority, yet it has not been used in decades. with two recent market crashes in 10 years, it is clear that the fed has no interest in curbing speculative excess. despite that reluctance, it has embarked upon a concentrated effort to push investors into risk assets.

    my primary beef with the fed is its lack of balance, which is creating structural flaws in the financial system that risk becoming embedded....chief among them an over-reliance on cheap money by both the private and public sectors.

    .
    Nov 17 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Is Monetizing A Staggering Amount Of U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    tack...

    thanks for clarifying. yes, the fed has certainly done everything it can to give the economy a boost. my beef is with both the extreme nature and the efficacy of their efforts. i think the economy's problems are largely structural, including excessive debt, changing technology, globalization of labor and capital, and increasing productivity (translate: fewer workers needed). the cost of debt has been on decline for 30+ years, and was never a core problem; yet the fed has behaved as if it is was. to some extent that's understandable...it's the biggest weapon in the fed's tool box.

    i think the problem today lies in the uncertainty of when and how it all ends, as the fed itself admits it will have to pull back one day. by their very actions the fed has created an certain future and that's why companies are slow to hire and invest.

    these are my opinions, of course. i could be wrong; but that's how i see the world.
    Nov 16 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Is Monetizing A Staggering Amount Of U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    tack:

    i'm not sure what impediments you're talking about with respect to "this administration," unless you re referring to the controversial health care law or regulations on oil drilling or transport, both of which have existed through past administrations. but i'm not here to defend the obama administration, as i think it is just as inept as those that preceded it.

    impediments to business have always existed in the form of laws and regulation. the notion that these are primary impediments to growth in our economy, however, is hard to measure and hard to prove. everyone affected domestically plays by the same rules. if international competitors don't follow the same rules, that can obviously create problems. that company or that industry might suffer, but business is dynamic and new players and/or new industry or new technology has a way of circumventing old problems. today's problem are tomorrow's opportunities...and that's one of the key underlying forces of economic growth.

    with respect to the relevancy of interest rates on capital investment decisions, i assure you, having spent a career in corporate finance for fortune 50 firms, that it is not only relevant...it is a key driver of capital investment decisions. to argue otherwise is to argue that the cost of capital itself is not relevant. it is simply not true.


    Nov 16 12:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Is Monetizing A Staggering Amount Of U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    instead of paraphrasing you, i'll quote you.

    "QE...is removing any financial incentive for people with disposable income to hoard dollars."

    this statement equates saving with hoarding. if that's not what you mean, then clarify it. if that is what you mean, then defend it. i challenge you to give an example of the sustained hoarding of dollars in the modern era. on the contrary, credit expansion has been one of the key drivers of economic growth for the last 50 years and debt at every level has exploded during that period. it is largely the unchecked expansion of cheap credit that led to the crash...whether due to greedy banks, fraudulent borrowers, stupid congressmen, bad laws or blind regulators. i find it ironic as well as troubling that the fed's prescription for improving our economic future entails not only more of the same but at an increasingly lower cost..


    Nov 16 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Federal Reserve Is Monetizing A Staggering Amount Of U.S. Government Debt [View article]
    what lawrence is saying is that the fed doesn't want people to save. it wants them to borrow and spend, and is forcing interest rates ever-lower in order to achieve that objective.

    but there is a flip side.

    in forcing real interest rates to negative or near negative levels, the fed is removing incentive for banks to lend and industry to invest. under a zero interest rate environment, all long-dated capital projects look appealing. but businesses aren't so stupid as to believe that rates won't eventually normalize. if they had some degree of certainty as to when they might normalize, and at what level, they would be able to make intelligent investment decisions. but they can't. so they tend to sit on their hands, protecting their profit margins. banks don't lend as much as they might otherwise; companies don't invest and they don't hire as they would in a normal economic environment. they wait for the normalization that the fed continues to push into the future.

    the fed is run by a bunch of academics who think they can control the business cycle. in forcing a zero interest rate policy down the collective throats of savers and investors, the fed has essentially frozen the economy. they think they've saved the patient even though their medicine has rendered him comatose. they've also boxed themselves in. if they reverse policy and let rates normalize the economy slides into the abyss. if they continue "printing" nobody knows what might happen; but the possibility that the bond market could rebel can't be far from the mind of every fed member.

    i wish i could share lawrence's faith in the omnipotence of the fed; but the mere fact that we've had two 50% market crashes within a 10 year period suggests to me that their insights are no better than those of a capable graduate student....and just as flawed.


    .
    Nov 15 10:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A REIT Way To Sleep Well At Night When Rates Begin To Rise [View article]
    i have to agree with jeff. you can't point to a single period in modern history that is the equivalent of what is going on today with interest rate supression. there is no parallel and those who wish to draw one are kidding themselves....
    Aug 29 09:53 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time To Buy Freeport-McMoRan? 2 Insiders Just Paid Over $42.8 Million [View article]
    suckerberg...i like that!
    Aug 3 07:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Reasons Why I Am Shorting The Market [View article]
    "When there is lots of liquidity outside equities and many investors, who after several years of being wrong and left behind, want to find an entry point, there will be constant buying on dips."

    and by this logic we should never have a bear market again? hardly a convincing argument in my opinion. in fact, market tops are rife with such punditry.
    Jul 28 01:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bernanke Conundrum [View article]
    you completely miss the point.

    the economy has a structural problem. it is overlevered by any reasonable standard and it remains as overlevered today as it was in 2008/2009 in terms of total debt. what has made the debt more sustainable is the zero interest rate policy set by the fed. if you believe that policy is here to stay, perhaps we'll eventually skate through if we can beat the addiction to cheap debt. i'm doubtful. it's not in our dna.

    the federal reserve has maintained a zero interest rate policy for precisely this reason: the fed knows that excess leverage can collapse an economy if economic growth stalls. the fed also believes it can't delever the system without crashing it so their solution is to keep money as cheap as they can, biding their time until inflation and/or economic growth bails them out. will that policy work? nobody knows because it's never been tried. i don't know. you don't know.

    but i do know this: we're eventually going to have another recession and if it comes any time soon it could spell major trouble for the economy and the fed.

    i also know that the fed is taking a huge gamble for an institution whose primary mission is to maintain the stability of the financial system.

    it's a hell of a way to run a railroad.
    Jul 15 01:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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