Paul Bishop

'BTE' Earnings Masking Signs of Coming Market Correction?

As always good data, thoughtfully presented. It is tough to track that many indexes and make any sense out of them, so the analysis is
extremely valuable.
While Wells reported good numbers it's clear they are still dealing with all the losses from Wachovia, as they continue their write downs. Many Banks will be forced to flush a lot of property in the 4th. qtr. to take the losses this year. It is no mystery why they aren't lending, with the portfolios they are carrying, they can't make a 80% LTV loan when they know the Value has more downside. My guess is there are close to 45,000 homes in the 9 county Bay Area that are in some stage of the foreclosure process, nothing is going to move appreciably until this is washed out. The nicer homes and neighborhoods are now beginning to be hit, and with the Holidays on us, more and more product will just sit. It will be hard to have any sustainable rally until the RE mess is adequately dealt with.

Glad to have John's input.

New Year, Same Meltdown Mess

Not for publication, but I have an interest in Both World Savings and Wachovia, now Wells ( lots of liability, not much upside) I don't think Wells adequately assessed the risk inherent with Wachovia, there are some very serious class action lawsuits wending their way through the courts. All have very serious potential and most are going to pass the Summary judgement easily. While Lerach and Co. caused the bar to be raised, there will be some serious Security class action suits, all will have merit, this liability is in the Billions. I'm curious as to your thought's on Herb Sandler's remarks as recently as 12/25/2008 in the NYT / Michael Moss. He makes some seemingly reckless statements, as if he were immune from prosecution. The change at the Whitehouse is the only thing I can see that is preventing the justice dept. from getting heavily involved, which will be the deathknell.