hmorgan

'Painting the Tape' - Wednesday's Suspicious Trading Pattern

I'm thinking manipulating the price of one of the five most actively traded securities would be a bit of a challenge. We are talking about the SPY after all, not some podunk startup biotech with an early stage drug that has not a hint of chance to make it to market. Whether or not we retest the lows (October 10, Nov 21, March 6) is anybody's guess, but I don't think it has anything to do with trading in SPY.
Cordially,
Herb

John Hussman: Lower Valuations Imply Higher Long-Term Returns

Very good post. Thank you.

Dow 15,000? (ETFs: IVV, IWV, IYY, SPY, VTI)

Dear WC:
I hope you had a change of heart somewhere along the way. From our perspective, the argument still holds. Wishing you the best.

Herb

Get Your Rally Shoes On Because This Rally's Got Legs

Excellent Comment Daniel. There is quite often confusion about the name of my firm. My belief in the Efficient Market Hypothesis relates to individual stock selection. (Hence the use of index based ETFs)
Having spent a long time in the actively managed world I make this statement from more than just academic theory. I do believe that Asset Allocation determines 94+% of a portfolios total return. For this reason we put the lion's share of our effort into the strategic and tactical elements of Asset Allocation, and hence the interest in fundamental data.

I hope that clarifies things. Again, thank you for your question.

Herb

John Hussman: Don't Bet on the Markets Until They Outpace T-bills

John,
Well articulated commentary. You intimate throughout that the market collectively has it wrong. Have you don any work related to the markets ability to act as a leading indicator in these matters, or have any specific academic work you could site. Thanks in advance, and congrats on a nice article.