Weekly Recap: Is the U.S. Going Bankrupt? [View article]
technicals can go to very extremes for extended period of time. we're facing unprecendented situations. black swan if you will.
the upside in gold(gold miners) is so big that we shouldn't be worried any short term corrections if any.
the gold miners have underperformed gold but also put them right at the sweet spot now, meaning there's not much downside as long as gold stays above 1050 and they're fully levered to the rise of gold price.
there's only one way to value gold, which is calculating gold's theoretical price based on gold standard. if we use USA's M0, its theoretical price is above 3000/ounce. if we use M1, its theoretical price is above 6000/ounce.
in 1980, when gold shot up to 800/ounce, it is between the M0 and M1 theoretical prices!
gold mines have attracted unprecedented attention in china's A share market. the three gold mine companies attracted 5-10% of total A share volume(value traded) on many days in a market of 1500 stocks although they account for a little over 1% of total market cap.
99% of investment professional i talk to don't believe in gold story. they don't understand gold is the true store of wealth not only in time of crisis like this, but also through ages and across borders.
Rockefeller was believed to have 1 billion dollars, which was 1600 tons of gold in his time.
buffett's wealth in year 2000 could buy around 3000 tons of gold, but now only around 1000 tons.
i wish rockefeller preserved his wealth through gold, so he could beat buffett even today!
my prediction for you americans is when gold peaks this time around, average US salary will buy less than one ounce of gold because you guys are jobless!
the total market cap of all of gold mines listed in the US is around 150 billion dollars. they almost control all of the gold resources in the world. 150billion dollars is a drop in the bucket.
consumables don't preserve value in the long run. just imagine hundreds of years later, when all the crude oil is depleted, crude oil will be worth nothing. the same for copper, coal and other consumables. but gold will be around for another 5 thousand years as long as the earth is inhabited by billions greedy and stupid human beings!
the 10-month long consolidation could mean a 10-month long bull run for gold when it'll break 1000, 1200, 1500 in a row.
using dollar in circulation before the subprime crisis, gold is worth $3000/ounce. given the massive liquidity injection since the crisis, gold may be worth north of $5000/ounce.
using its peak price in 1980 in terms of US monthly salary, it is worth $3000, about the average monthly US salary currently. but if we take into account that the americans overall produce much less than 1980, US average monthly salary should be able to buy less 1 ounce of gold this time when gold peaks. when 2 billion indians and chinese are competing for jobs and food and wealth. this all makes good sense!
how broke the USA is something i'll refer you to roubini.
Faber: Gold a Better Buy than at $300/oz. [View article]
Gold and Silver Continue Their Ascent [View article]
so the rest of the world competed for the rest, about 1000 tons.
guess what the price would be when the much more affluent european, american, japanese start to buy gold.
Weekly Recap: Is the U.S. Going Bankrupt? [View article]
the upside in gold(gold miners) is so big that we shouldn't be worried any short term corrections if any.
the gold miners have underperformed gold but also put them right at the sweet spot now, meaning there's not much downside as long as gold stays above 1050 and they're fully levered to the rise of gold price.
3 Reasons Not to Believe In Gold's Recent Rally [View article]
India Needs to Get Aggressive with Its Reserves [View article]
A New Way of Valuing Gold [View article]
if we use USA's M0, its theoretical price is above 3000/ounce. if we use M1, its theoretical price is above 6000/ounce.
in 1980, when gold shot up to 800/ounce, it is between the M0 and M1 theoretical prices!
The Short and Long Term Outlook for Gold, Silver [View article]
it was not over valued in 1980, neither is it today!
Two Short-Term Scenarios for Gold [View article]
Does Mises' Equation Give a Basis for Gold Price? [View article]
On May 03 11:41 PM MGA_1 wrote:
> The Bank of England was successful doing this for 150
> years which resulted in a very sound currency.
from when to when are you talking about?
from 1914-2008, GBP depreciated 150 times against gold. before 1914, one GBP = 1/4 ounce of gold, now one GBP < 1/600 ounce of gold!
Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble? [View article]
Rockefeller was believed to have 1 billion dollars, which was 1600 tons of gold in his time.
buffett's wealth in year 2000 could buy around 3000 tons of gold, but now only around 1000 tons.
i wish rockefeller preserved his wealth through gold, so he could beat buffett even today!
Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble? [View article]
my prediction for you americans is when gold peaks this time around, average US salary will buy less than one ounce of gold because you guys are jobless!
the total market cap of all of gold mines listed in the US is around 150 billion dollars. they almost control all of the gold resources in the world. 150billion dollars is a drop in the bucket.
Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble? [View article]
Gold's Net Longs and Gold / Oil Ratio [View article]
to me, the fundamentals of gold is much more important.
so far since the beginning of the crisis, market price of gold hasn't gone up as fast as gold's theoretical upside.
before the crisis, gold's theoretical price around $3000/ounce. now it could be well above $5000/ounce.
A Golden Investment in 2009 and Beyond [View article]
but with or without gold standard, gold is still a strategic reserve at all central banks.
it is still a perfect hedge against rotten fiat money.
Gold Demand Resurges [View article]
using dollar in circulation before the subprime crisis, gold is worth $3000/ounce. given the massive liquidity injection since the crisis, gold may be worth north of $5000/ounce.
using its peak price in 1980 in terms of US monthly salary, it is worth $3000, about the average monthly US salary currently. but if we take into account that the americans overall produce much less than 1980, US average monthly salary should be able to buy less 1 ounce of gold this time when gold peaks. when 2 billion indians and chinese are competing for jobs and food and wealth. this all makes good sense!
how broke the USA is something i'll refer you to roubini.