Seeking Alpha

Scoe

Scoe
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  • Peak Resorts: A Smooth Ride Up The Hill [View article]
    So, why would you want to own a company that borrows at double digits and turns around and pays out a sizable dividend... in a lousy business (skiing) with bad demographics?

    I just don't see anything remotely bullish here. But somebody must think so.
    Feb 8, 2015. 10:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Peak Resorts: A Smooth Ride Up The Hill [View article]
    I don't know much about how to analyze a company like this... but why does a company so deeply in debt pay a huge dividend? Instead of paying their cash flow to shareholders, shouldn't they be paying down their debt ?

    This seems to me to be like borrowing off credit cards because you don't want to deplete your bank account.

    Can anyone explain this strategy to me ?
    Feb 2, 2015. 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best ETF Of Our Time (AKA How To Become A Billionaire Without Really Trying) [View article]
    I don't buy and hold...but that's beside the point.

    XIV has gone up so much in recent years because...

    ... bull market
    ... high beta
    ... volatility continually lower than expected

    In 2014, the tide turned. The bull market continued but volatility was higher than expected. XIV underperformed the stock market by a large margin on a beta-adj basis.

    XIV has no free lunch. Free lunches are arbitraged away. The long XIV trade became over-crowded.
    Jan 20, 2015. 11:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Best ETF Of Our Time (AKA How To Become A Billionaire Without Really Trying) [View article]

    The Best ETF Of Our Time (AKA How To Become A Billionaire Without Really Trying)...

    Since July 3, 2014

    SPY + 1.8%
    XIV -41%
    SVXY -41%

    How is that billionaire thing working out? Everything seems easy in a bull market.
    Jan 13, 2015. 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • True Contango: The Real Reason To Short VXX Long Term [View article]
    XIV and SVXY are up about 1% or 2% for the year with a beta of around 4. SPY is up 10%. If they were good investments, they would be up more than 40%.

    Don't confused a leveraged product in a bull market with genius.
    Nov 2, 2014. 12:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Is Buy-And-Hold So Hard To Follow? [View article]
    I'm with he frog too
    Nov 1, 2014. 11:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part VII: Non-Correlated Hedged Convexity Capture Bulldozes Through Market Chop [View article]
    Agreed. Same as TLT/SPY except assumes 3x decay will offset HTB fees and rebalancing costs and risks of owning leveraged ETP such as insolvency and called shorts
    Oct 21, 2014. 05:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting The VXX Looks Good Here For A Long-Term Trade [View article]
    "Then, If we enter a short trade we always trade with a tight stop loss of 2.8% and never hold through weekends."

    Since 2.8% happens a lot for VXX, when do you get back in ?
    Oct 16, 2014. 04:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting The VXX Looks Good Here For A Long-Term Trade [View article]
    Well, VXX up 30% since the last time I read an article saying "go short"

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Short Volatility [View article]
    Since this article was written, VXX up from 29 to 40 or +38%

    And a new article telling you to short now....
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Short Volatility [View article]

    jacobtr

    "How did you calculate that? "

    Scoe

    "It's complicated"

    Jacob tr
    "Right. In other words, just trust me."

    Scoe

    In other words... it's proprietary and hard to explain and I have no incentive to do so...but they are some reliable sources out there with this data.
    Oct 16, 2014. 01:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Short Volatility [View article]
    Complicated
    Sep 30, 2014. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Short Volatility [View article]
    No
    Sep 30, 2014. 09:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Short Volatility [View article]
    Historical XIV perspective....including before XIV was launched... (roughly reverse for VXX)

    Our analysis shows that XIV would have gained 2348% from Mar 2009 to July 2014 ... roughly 78% a year.

    Our analysis also shows that XIV would have lost 92% of it's value between Feb 2007 and March 2009.... roughly -71% a year rate

    Double edged sword.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Get Short Volatility [View article]
    "There is no way to trade VIX products without a large amount of risk."

    Sure there is. All risk can be managed.
    Sep 29, 2014. 09:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
212 Comments
197 Likes