Tesla Motors: What Everyday Investors Are Forgetting [View article]
I agree with your assessment on TSLA. But, the danger to the stock lies in all that "love" money. A lot of the "hate" money got shaken out in the recent short squeeze. The "love" money piled in.
Long term, the success of the concept and product execution will drive the stock price. But right now, it's a battle of the "love" and "hate" groups. Right now, all the love money is in and the hate money flushed out. That's a dangerous time to be long in the short term.
VXX: Wall Street's One Click Bandit [View article]
Keep in mind VXX was launched almost exactly the same time as the bull market. If the history included 2007 and 2008, it would very different. Shorting VXX is like picking up nickels in front of a train. Seems very easy and profitable and you can usually hear the train coming. Usually...LOL
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
I trade in and out (short). ...but I never have more than 1% in TSLA. Sometimes I do 2% in a single stock but not something that crazy.
This most recent trade I shorted around $53 at a "high". Now at $76, that has put about a half percent dent in my wallet. I'll try to cover "low" and re-short at the next high.
Very impressive run lately for TSLA but don't count your chickens until you sell. Like I said, maybe brilliance will win out.
In the internet bubble of 1998-2000, I watched amazing run-ups in stocks I thought were utterly worthless. Ultimately, I was right on most, but didn't short them and would have gone bust if I had. Never underestimate how high or fast a stock can go.
Unlike Pets.com of 1998, TSLA does have real value. I just feel the hype and stock price have significantly out-run reality.
Congrats to all of you who have some of my money now :-(
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
From Wikipedia... Rule of 16 ...Crude volatility estimation
Using a simplification of the formulae above it is possible to estimate annualized volatility based solely on approximate observations. Suppose you notice that a market price index, which has a current value near 10,000, has moved about 100 points a day, on average, for many days. This would constitute a 1% daily movement, up or down.
To annualize this, you can use the "rule of 16", that is, multiply by 16 to get 16% as the annual volatility. The rationale for this is that 16 is the square root of 256, which is approximately the number of trading days in a year (252). This also uses the fact that the standard deviation of the sum of n independent variables (with equal standard deviations) is √n times the standard deviation of the individual variables.
Of course, the average magnitude of the observations is merely an approximation of the standard deviation of the market index. Assuming that the market index daily changes are normally distributed with mean zero and standard deviation σ, the expected value of the magnitude of the observations is √(2/π)σ = 0.798σ. The net effect is that this crude approach underestimates the true volatility by about 20%.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
Who is going to pay that warranty ? If the cars have issues on any significant scale, this company will quickly have a serious red ink problem. Who will cut you a check? I would say the warranty has significant "counterparty risk".
Do companies buy insurance to cover their warranties in the event of a major quality issue? I have no idea.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
My short case is that the fundamentals are still horrible and that the market is pricing in the "Steve Jobs" vision. If everything clicks as everyone is so exited about here... quality, executions, vision, fundamental shift in energy use, consumer acceptance, government handouts, etc, ...then I lose.
If any of those things go wrong, then all that red ink on the balance sheet starts to feel real heavy.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
Financial reality applies to all. Companies like TSLA soar because folks think that the sky is the limit and fundamentals don't matter. With great vision and great execution, TSLA can outgrow the financial headwinds. I have a basket of shorts like TSLA. My feeling is that some will succeed. Most will not.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
Nice, comprehensive analysis. But, I'm short TSLA. If you look at stocks with financials like TSLA over the past 15 years, they have returned -9% a year on average.
Conditions... near 52 wk high No dividends ROA negative Earnings negative high short interest
Other stocks now with these features...
CERS AVEO EDMC VVUS NKTR RPTP IN OWW VSTM
Perhaps vision and brilliance will win out. But there are a lot of financial headwinds.
Why The Fed Doesn't Fear Inflation, But You Do [View article]
Inflation helps eliminate the debt by making dollars worth less. The Fed's money printing transfers money away from savers to reduce the government obligations. At least in Cyprus, they were up front about stealing your savings. Here, it is done in a stealth fashion
Why You Should Consider Harley-Davidson [View article]
My concern is a bunch of really old fat guys playing costume dress up on weekends is aging out of the market. This has been really trendy over the last 20 years but the next aging generation will have a different hobby.
Can HOG make that up with international sales and younger demos? My guess is "no". This is a long term underperformer at current valuations.
The Fed Didn't Cause The Gold Bubble - Or Any Other Bubble [View article]
The country isn't bankrupt. The government is bankrupt. That is a key distinction because the government is already stealing your money by printing new money. In Cyprus, they were just more honest and said we are going to seize your bank account. Money printing is the same thing...just hidden.
Tesla Motors: What Everyday Investors Are Forgetting [View article]
Long term, the success of the concept and product execution will drive the stock price. But right now, it's a battle of the "love" and "hate" groups. Right now, all the love money is in and the hate money flushed out. That's a dangerous time to be long in the short term.
VXX: Wall Street's One Click Bandit [View article]
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
This most recent trade I shorted around $53 at a "high". Now at $76, that has put about a half percent dent in my wallet. I'll try to cover "low" and re-short at the next high.
Very impressive run lately for TSLA but don't count your chickens until you sell. Like I said, maybe brilliance will win out.
In the internet bubble of 1998-2000, I watched amazing run-ups in stocks I thought were utterly worthless. Ultimately, I was right on most, but didn't short them and would have gone bust if I had. Never underestimate how high or fast a stock can go.
Unlike Pets.com of 1998, TSLA does have real value. I just feel the hype and stock price have significantly out-run reality.
Congrats to all of you who have some of my money now :-(
Key Questions From Tesla Skeptics [View article]
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Rule of 16 ...Crude volatility estimation
Using a simplification of the formulae above it is possible to estimate annualized volatility based solely on approximate observations. Suppose you notice that a market price index, which has a current value near 10,000, has moved about 100 points a day, on average, for many days. This would constitute a 1% daily movement, up or down.
To annualize this, you can use the "rule of 16", that is, multiply by 16 to get 16% as the annual volatility. The rationale for this is that 16 is the square root of 256, which is approximately the number of trading days in a year (252). This also uses the fact that the standard deviation of the sum of n independent variables (with equal standard deviations) is √n times the standard deviation of the individual variables.
Of course, the average magnitude of the observations is merely an approximation of the standard deviation of the market index. Assuming that the market index daily changes are normally distributed with mean zero and standard deviation σ, the expected value of the magnitude of the observations is √(2/π)σ = 0.798σ. The net effect is that this crude approach underestimates the true volatility by about 20%.
Unraveling The VXX Roll Yield Riddle [View article]
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
Do companies buy insurance to cover their warranties in the event of a major quality issue? I have no idea.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
If any of those things go wrong, then all that red ink on the balance sheet starts to feel real heavy.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
PowerShares Zacks Small-Cap Portfolio ETF Seeks To Capture Emerging Small-caps (ETF: PZJ) [View article]
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
Conditions...
near 52 wk high
No dividends
ROA negative
Earnings negative
high short interest
Other stocks now with these features...
CERS
AVEO
EDMC
VVUS
NKTR
RPTP
IN
OWW
VSTM
Perhaps vision and brilliance will win out. But there are a lot of financial headwinds.
Tesla Motors' Full Analysis, Its Only Mistake, Outlook And Elon Musk [View article]
From 2000 to 2009, Europe per capita CO2 up 4.6%
From 2000 to 2009, USA per capita CO2 down 14.7%
From 2000 to 2009, World per capita CO2 up 15.8%
I'd say the USA is doing a much better job at reducing
Why The Fed Doesn't Fear Inflation, But You Do [View article]
Why You Should Consider Harley-Davidson [View article]
Can HOG make that up with international sales and younger demos? My guess is "no". This is a long term underperformer at current valuations.
The Fed Didn't Cause The Gold Bubble - Or Any Other Bubble [View article]