ZenInvestor's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/180269/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/165679-sirius-xm-radio-attacked-unfairly-by-media?source=feed#comment-710399 710399 Fri, 09 Oct 2009 11:15:05 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/163836-retail-firms-at-risk-for-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-698506 698506 www.law.com/jsp/articl...]]> Thu, 01 Oct 2009 10:59:48 -0400 www.law.com/jsp/articl...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163848-negative-media-attacks-plague-sirius-xm-radio?source=feed#comment-695232 695232
In point of fact after the September merger SIRI did release a cash flow and EBITDA projection for the next five years. In point of fact they are exceeding that projection (300MM in EBITDA in 2009), and doing so on fewer subscribers, and a much lower expense structure than originally projected. They have since suspended 'guidance' until the economic recovery makes that more prudent, but anyone can still see that they more than on target. Your 500MM in debt service is somewhat higher than reality also because it does not take into account the new debt offerings at lower rates, and the 'one time' charges associated with the Malone debt and 'breakage' fees associated with the early payoff of the high interest debt. All one time charges.

YOU need to do some basic homework, and tell US how you concluded they can't service or pay off the debt. I will be happy to listen, but until then all you are offering is a 'trust me', that is no better than what you accuse Satwaves of providing.


On Sep 29 10:16 AM jswede wrote:

> "Despite it being a mathematical impossibility that Sirius XM Radio
> will file for bankruptcy in the next year".....
>
> it's good you're lining up your 'manipulation' and 'media attack'
> excuses... you'll need them.
>
> as an aside, I find it funny you say "mathmatical impossibility"
> when you have never done the actual math on the debt side. niever.
> ever. I've searched -- NONE of you bulls have ever done the math.
>
>
> bankruptcy is not only possible, it's very likely. This company
> cannot afford $500mil/yr in debt service, nor can they afford the
> $billions in debt maturities coming in the next years...
>
> If any poster thinks that Siri CAN, in fact, cover the debt service
> and debt maturities, I'd love to see the analysis... I've asked
> so many times and had to response that this is no doubt a lost cause,
> but hey, maybe I've just asked the wrong people...
>
> Sat Waves doesn't even understand debt offerings, debt service, interest
> rates, or the current debt market... yet somehow they feel you
> can speak on these topics freely, passing along inaccuracies to retail
> investors who then put their hard-earned money at risk on their word...
> I have no stake in Siri anymore, but I have a real problem with that.]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 10:50:26 -0400
In point of fact after the September merger SIRI did release a cash flow and EBITDA projection for the next five years. In point of fact they are exceeding that projection (300MM in EBITDA in 2009), and doing so on fewer subscribers, and a much lower expense structure than originally projected. They have since suspended 'guidance' until the economic recovery makes that more prudent, but anyone can still see that they more than on target. Your 500MM in debt service is somewhat higher than reality also because it does not take into account the new debt offerings at lower rates, and the 'one time' charges associated with the Malone debt and 'breakage' fees associated with the early payoff of the high interest debt. All one time charges.

YOU need to do some basic homework, and tell US how you concluded they can't service or pay off the debt. I will be happy to listen, but until then all you are offering is a 'trust me', that is no better than what you accuse Satwaves of providing.


On Sep 29 10:16 AM jswede wrote:

> "Despite it being a mathematical impossibility that Sirius XM Radio
> will file for bankruptcy in the next year".....
>
> it's good you're lining up your 'manipulation' and 'media attack'
> excuses... you'll need them.
>
> as an aside, I find it funny you say "mathmatical impossibility"
> when you have never done the actual math on the debt side. niever.
> ever. I've searched -- NONE of you bulls have ever done the math.
>
>
> bankruptcy is not only possible, it's very likely. This company
> cannot afford $500mil/yr in debt service, nor can they afford the
> $billions in debt maturities coming in the next years...
>
> If any poster thinks that Siri CAN, in fact, cover the debt service
> and debt maturities, I'd love to see the analysis... I've asked
> so many times and had to response that this is no doubt a lost cause,
> but hey, maybe I've just asked the wrong people...
>
> Sat Waves doesn't even understand debt offerings, debt service, interest
> rates, or the current debt market... yet somehow they feel you
> can speak on these topics freely, passing along inaccuracies to retail
> investors who then put their hard-earned money at risk on their word...
> I have no stake in Siri anymore, but I have a real problem with that.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163836-retail-firms-at-risk-for-bankruptcy?source=feed#comment-695117 695117
Now, look at three analyst upgrades this quarter with targets over a buck, and EBITDA projected (and on target) of over 400MM this year, positive cash flow, and an operating profit, and you have a picture that any objective observer would say indicates a successful merger, and with Liberty and John Malone as substantial (40%) owners, a winning strategy for a secure future.

As for 'not being there', Sirius XM service would survive any Bankruptcy you fool, no matter how remote that possibility is, and my service will be there without interruption. In short, your statements regarding SIRI are a joke! Please tell me you money is in certificates of deposit and NOT the stock market!]]> Tue, 29 Sep 2009 09:21:38 -0400
Now, look at three analyst upgrades this quarter with targets over a buck, and EBITDA projected (and on target) of over 400MM this year, positive cash flow, and an operating profit, and you have a picture that any objective observer would say indicates a successful merger, and with Liberty and John Malone as substantial (40%) owners, a winning strategy for a secure future.

As for 'not being there', Sirius XM service would survive any Bankruptcy you fool, no matter how remote that possibility is, and my service will be there without interruption. In short, your statements regarding SIRI are a joke! Please tell me you money is in certificates of deposit and NOT the stock market!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/162021-20-companies-most-likely-to-go-bankrupt-in-next-year?source=feed#comment-682282 682282
BTW, 'Market Folly' seems an appropriate name for the author, don't you think?]]> Fri, 18 Sep 2009 08:57:04 -0400
BTW, 'Market Folly' seems an appropriate name for the author, don't you think?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138063-too-early-to-dub-youtube-a-failure?source=feed#comment-507032 507032 Sun, 17 May 2009 09:41:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132581-perspective-on-john-malone-s-sirius-stance?source=feed#comment-474068 474068
About 75% of what you write makes good sense, stuff like this is 'out there', but not offensive. Don't spend a reader's time with 'defense', it makes you look petulant. Just a thought.
]]> Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:11:40 -0400
About 75% of what you write makes good sense, stuff like this is 'out there', but not offensive. Don't spend a reader's time with 'defense', it makes you look petulant. Just a thought.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131893-sirius-investors-need-to-summon-up-more-patience-again?source=feed#comment-470888 470888 Tue, 21 Apr 2009 09:01:15 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/131893-sirius-investors-need-to-summon-up-more-patience-again?source=feed#comment-470883 470883
So why now, and why 1B shares? This is a poison pill with one exemption. Malone is setting it up so only he can take over the company. That is what someone who has 550MM invested and and a minimum of 40% interest would do, and the loan covenants already give me great power over any merger. He is just sealing the envelope to keep others out entirely.

Also, an RS would be helpful and reduce future volatility. Putting it off until next year is wise. One, of many, scenario would have Malone converting his secured debt to equity and take control of the company. The board would have to authorize the breaking of the 'stand still' agreement, but that should be easy. You then do an RS, and restructure the remaining debt at much better terms.

This would likely be very good for shareholders, as the current debt expense (over 350MM annually) would be reduced and some of it eliminated, and the company would be profitable for the first time. Reading the filing entirely lends to that 'theory'.

Don't contribute to the hysteria Brandon. Think before you type.


]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 08:59:36 -0400
So why now, and why 1B shares? This is a poison pill with one exemption. Malone is setting it up so only he can take over the company. That is what someone who has 550MM invested and and a minimum of 40% interest would do, and the loan covenants already give me great power over any merger. He is just sealing the envelope to keep others out entirely.

Also, an RS would be helpful and reduce future volatility. Putting it off until next year is wise. One, of many, scenario would have Malone converting his secured debt to equity and take control of the company. The board would have to authorize the breaking of the 'stand still' agreement, but that should be easy. You then do an RS, and restructure the remaining debt at much better terms.

This would likely be very good for shareholders, as the current debt expense (over 350MM annually) would be reduced and some of it eliminated, and the company would be profitable for the first time. Reading the filing entirely lends to that 'theory'.

Don't contribute to the hysteria Brandon. Think before you type.


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126026-directv-is-flashing-a-buy-signal-barron-s?source=feed#comment-426852 426852 Sun, 15 Mar 2009 17:53:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125865-sirius-is-finally-in-the-right-place-at-the-right-time?source=feed#comment-424154 424154 Fri, 13 Mar 2009 08:06:21 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124475-sirius-trouble-ahead?source=feed#comment-415628 415628
You need to rethink this Brandon. You analysis of sub fall off is way off the mark also, for too many reasons to go into here. Revenues, and not auto subscriptions is what is relevant now. You had too much coffee, all is forgiven. Now come down to earth before your next post.]]> Fri, 06 Mar 2009 08:23:17 -0500
You need to rethink this Brandon. You analysis of sub fall off is way off the mark also, for too many reasons to go into here. Revenues, and not auto subscriptions is what is relevant now. You had too much coffee, all is forgiven. Now come down to earth before your next post.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124200-auto-sales-continue-to-spell-trouble-for-satellite-radio?source=feed#comment-414682 414682 www.tss-radio.com/xmp3...

But if you buy one of the low end car units it only cost about 20 bucks to get a home dock for it also. In either case it is simple and cheap to have it both car or dock.]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 14:26:26 -0500 www.tss-radio.com/xmp3...

But if you buy one of the low end car units it only cost about 20 bucks to get a home dock for it also. In either case it is simple and cheap to have it both car or dock.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124200-auto-sales-continue-to-spell-trouble-for-satellite-radio?source=feed#comment-414088 414088
The sales of portable devices for SiriusXM almost always come with a home dock, and you see 'docks' for IPhones, IPods, etc., in every Best Buy. Yes, a lot of listening is done at home, that is why music stations are bundled with almost every cable and dish provider.

I have all of the toys, notebook computer, MP3 player, Blackberry, and my XM portable goes with me everywhere. It all works, and people pay for all the modes to listen to the 'content' which is the real 'product' that SiriusXM provides, with or without a satellite. ]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 09:54:31 -0500
The sales of portable devices for SiriusXM almost always come with a home dock, and you see 'docks' for IPhones, IPods, etc., in every Best Buy. Yes, a lot of listening is done at home, that is why music stations are bundled with almost every cable and dish provider.

I have all of the toys, notebook computer, MP3 player, Blackberry, and my XM portable goes with me everywhere. It all works, and people pay for all the modes to listen to the 'content' which is the real 'product' that SiriusXM provides, with or without a satellite. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124200-auto-sales-continue-to-spell-trouble-for-satellite-radio?source=feed#comment-413923 413923
No worries, both delivery systems currently have their place, but in ten years (the life of the satellites themselves) we will have WiMax and 5G or 6G systems in the cars as well. The short term has some challenges, no doubt, but but the future for SiriusXM is much brighter than that of the auto industry itself, and the Internet is 'green'.]]> Thu, 05 Mar 2009 08:51:40 -0500
No worries, both delivery systems currently have their place, but in ten years (the life of the satellites themselves) we will have WiMax and 5G or 6G systems in the cars as well. The short term has some challenges, no doubt, but but the future for SiriusXM is much brighter than that of the auto industry itself, and the Internet is 'green'.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/115093-auto-sales-projections-add-more-worry-to-sirius-xm?source=feed#comment-357402 357402 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 08:36:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/114283-fed-up-with-sirius-childish-customers?source=feed#comment-353105 353105
I agree, stations change all the time, TV sitcoms switch characters, and life goes on. All this noise is just that. I am an XM subscriber who is thrilled with the new offerings, and got 'best of' added right away. There is so much to Satellite radio that you can't even think about getting anywhere else. ]]> Mon, 12 Jan 2009 08:34:55 -0500
I agree, stations change all the time, TV sitcoms switch characters, and life goes on. All this noise is just that. I am an XM subscriber who is thrilled with the new offerings, and got 'best of' added right away. There is so much to Satellite radio that you can't even think about getting anywhere else. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/106182-who-ll-blink-first-sirius-loral-or-the-banks?source=feed#comment-306983 306983
Still think that is SIRI can get past the debt issue a bit they will move upward, so we all have our fingers crossed.]]> Sun, 16 Nov 2008 08:02:56 -0500
Still think that is SIRI can get past the debt issue a bit they will move upward, so we all have our fingers crossed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/105499-analysts-weigh-in-on-sirius-first-quarter-as-a-merged-company?source=feed#comment-304136 304136 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 12:00:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/105470-sirius-gm-aig-where-is-the-leadership-in-american-boardrooms?source=feed#comment-303994 303994 Wed, 12 Nov 2008 10:14:26 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/104701-4-signs-for-further-caution-by-satellite-radio-investors-goldman?source=feed#comment-299907 299907
stockmarketsundays.com...

]]> Fri, 07 Nov 2008 06:20:54 -0500
stockmarketsundays.com...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/104354-what-will-sirius-q3-look-like?source=feed#comment-299198 299198
A complete response to the lawsuit filed needs to be a priority, especially comments on 'going private'. Mel needs to just address this directly if he hopes to put it behind him.

]]> Thu, 06 Nov 2008 07:57:34 -0500
A complete response to the lawsuit filed needs to be a priority, especially comments on 'going private'. Mel needs to just address this directly if he hopes to put it behind him.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/102884-stifel-lowers-sirius-estimates-on-weak-auto-sales?source=feed#comment-294083 294083 Thu, 30 Oct 2008 07:58:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/101885-sirius-xm-nears-top-of-shorts-list?source=feed#comment-290651 290651
Restructuring the debt in SIRI is management's first priority, but the debt markets are in such disarray that job is monumental.]]> Sun, 26 Oct 2008 08:08:29 -0400
Restructuring the debt in SIRI is management's first priority, but the debt markets are in such disarray that job is monumental.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100545-will-murdoch-make-a-move-on-sirius?source=feed#comment-285536 285536 Sun, 19 Oct 2008 08:31:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/98533-fannie-and-freddie-did-not-cause-this-crisis?source=feed#comment-273798 273798
You can say they were not a major part of the problem, but they also were not sole cause of it. ]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 08:36:55 -0400
You can say they were not a major part of the problem, but they also were not sole cause of it. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98526-tarp-is-just-the-beginning-barron-s?source=feed#comment-273788 273788
A good article, and we can only hope someone is listening.]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 08:22:44 -0400
A good article, and we can only hope someone is listening.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98534-mark-to-market-vs-mark-to-history?source=feed#comment-273777 273777
Imagine a world where Bear, Lehman, and AIG had NOT required intervention. We might not be entering a recession, and the current 'bailout' might well not even have been discussed. Because suspending it would have 'looked bad' it was not done, and now we are much worse off. The regulators failed us, but not by under regulation, but by not regulating sensibly.]]> Sun, 05 Oct 2008 08:02:53 -0400
Imagine a world where Bear, Lehman, and AIG had NOT required intervention. We might not be entering a recession, and the current 'bailout' might well not even have been discussed. Because suspending it would have 'looked bad' it was not done, and now we are much worse off. The regulators failed us, but not by under regulation, but by not regulating sensibly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/92273-giving-cramer-the-benefit-of-sirius-doubt?source=feed#comment-237515 237515 Sun, 24 Aug 2008 08:01:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92272-sirius-xm-drops-nfl-ball-again?source=feed#comment-237359 237359 Sat, 23 Aug 2008 17:59:34 -0400