ZenInvestor

Fed Up with Sirius' Childish Customers

With all due respect Bubba is the one who wanted to work half the hours. He wanted to still have his show on Terrestrial radio and Sirius, so something had to give, and it was Bubba who screwed his fans, not Sirius.

I agree, stations change all the time, TV sitcoms switch characters, and life goes on. All this noise is just that. I am an XM subscriber who is thrilled with the new offerings, and got 'best of' added right away. There is so much to Satellite radio that you can't even think about getting anywhere else.

Negative Media Attacks Plague Sirius XM Radio

And YOU can speak to all of these matters? You provide no more compelling evidence for your side. You say it, so it is so. I get it.

In point of fact after the September merger SIRI did release a cash flow and EBITDA projection for the next five years. In point of fact they are exceeding that projection (300MM in EBITDA in 2009), and doing so on fewer subscribers, and a much lower expense structure than originally projected. They have since suspended 'guidance' until the economic recovery makes that more prudent, but anyone can still see that they more than on target. Your 500MM in debt service is somewhat higher than reality also because it does not take into account the new debt offerings at lower rates, and the 'one time' charges associated with the Malone debt and 'breakage' fees associated with the early payoff of the high interest debt. All one time charges.

YOU need to do some basic homework, and tell US how you concluded they can't service or pay off the debt. I will be happy to listen, but until then all you are offering is a 'trust me', that is no better than what you accuse Satwaves of providing.


On Sep 29 10:16 AM jswede wrote:

> "Despite it being a mathematical impossibility that Sirius XM Radio
> will file for bankruptcy in the next year".....
>
> it's good you're lining up your 'manipulation' and 'media attack'
> excuses... you'll need them.
>
> as an aside, I find it funny you say "mathmatical impossibility"
> when you have never done the actual math on the debt side. niever.
> ever. I've searched -- NONE of you bulls have ever done the math.
>
>
> bankruptcy is not only possible, it's very likely. This company
> cannot afford $500mil/yr in debt service, nor can they afford the
> $billions in debt maturities coming in the next years...
>
> If any poster thinks that Siri CAN, in fact, cover the debt service
> and debt maturities, I'd love to see the analysis... I've asked
> so many times and had to response that this is no doubt a lost cause,
> but hey, maybe I've just asked the wrong people...
>
> Sat Waves doesn't even understand debt offerings, debt service, interest
> rates, or the current debt market... yet somehow they feel you
> can speak on these topics freely, passing along inaccuracies to retail
> investors who then put their hard-earned money at risk on their word...
> I have no stake in Siri anymore, but I have a real problem with that.

Retail Firms at Risk for Bankruptcy

What a load of crap! Audit Integrity has an awful record of 'predicting' anything, and Sirius XM has had two debt offerings oversubscribed in the last quarter (and rated by S&P, who does do analysis), and they have no significant debt repayments until 2012. The mathematics used by Audit Integrity make NO attempt at analysis of the balance sheet. The 'non-cash' write downs taken at the time of the merger skewed their numbers, and since all they had was a spreadsheet it was GIGO.

Now, look at three analyst upgrades this quarter with targets over a buck, and EBITDA projected (and on target) of over 400MM this year, positive cash flow, and an operating profit, and you have a picture that any objective observer would say indicates a successful merger, and with Liberty and John Malone as substantial (40%) owners, a winning strategy for a secure future.

As for 'not being there', Sirius XM service would survive any Bankruptcy you fool, no matter how remote that possibility is, and my service will be there without interruption. In short, your statements regarding SIRI are a joke! Please tell me you money is in certificates of deposit and NOT the stock market!

Sirius Trouble Ahead

Way over the top here, and too much over analysis. Your usual cool thoughtful contributions went out the window on this one. This filing is required by the SEC if you believe a 'going concern' opinion is coming. Until the 5/09 debt is cleared KPMG is quite right to question their ability to continue. This puts pressure on JPM and UBS to come to terms on the extension, and is a precautionary filing with the SEC.

You need to rethink this Brandon. You analysis of sub fall off is way off the mark also, for too many reasons to go into here. Revenues, and not auto subscriptions is what is relevant now. You had too much coffee, all is forgiven. Now come down to earth before your next post.

20 Companies Most Likely to Go Bankrupt in Next Year

This is so funny that it speaks only of a person who enjoys seeing their words in 'print', even if most of the article was done by someone else.. The list is old, out of date, and irrelevant when it come to Sirius. NO analyst thinks there is ANY risk of BK today for SIRI.

BTW, 'Market Folly' seems an appropriate name for the author, don't you think?

Too Early to Dub YouTube a Failure

Wow. You are out of touch! SIRI just had an investment by Liberty to the tune of 550MM, and most on your list are not 'dead', just not the 'market leader'. Is leading the market necessary to avoid 'death' in you opinion. Go back to reading articles, writing them is not your forte. Sorry.

Perspective on John Malone's Sirius Stance

I don't get your idea at all, and don't think it is probable, but mentioning 'attacks' in both your articles today seems a little 'thin skinned' to me.

About 75% of what you write makes good sense, stuff like this is 'out there', but not offensive. Don't spend a reader's time with 'defense', it makes you look petulant. Just a thought.

Whose Fault Is It? Paul Krugman's Bizarro Universe

You are whispering into a hurricane Ira. The politicians that created the very 'risky' vehicles that Wall Street 'abused' tend to forget their roles in the whole mess. If you want proof of that fact, just listen hard for any discussion of 'Fannie and Freddie', the second largest bailout after AIG. The silence will be deafening. When they do the final analysis decades from now, it will be the Congress that bears at least as much blame as the Bankers. Until time passes, the 'bizarro' logic of both sides will dominate the discussion.

Sirius XM Radio Attacked Unfairly by Media

Good recap of the nonsense, but I predict it will continue until SIRI reports a quarterly profit or two. All of this is 'noise' meant to confuse the market. I can't 'know' the motives of these folks, but it is suspicious.

Sirius Investors Need to Summon Up More Patience... Again

Your article is a hysterical over reaction. This is an increase is 'authorized' shares, so no dilution happens until they are 'issued'. With your background Brandon you know this of course.

So why now, and why 1B shares? This is a poison pill with one exemption. Malone is setting it up so only he can take over the company. That is what someone who has 550MM invested and and a minimum of 40% interest would do, and the loan covenants already give me great power over any merger. He is just sealing the envelope to keep others out entirely.

Also, an RS would be helpful and reduce future volatility. Putting it off until next year is wise. One, of many, scenario would have Malone converting his secured debt to equity and take control of the company. The board would have to authorize the breaking of the 'stand still' agreement, but that should be easy. You then do an RS, and restructure the remaining debt at much better terms.

This would likely be very good for shareholders, as the current debt expense (over 350MM annually) would be reduced and some of it eliminated, and the company would be profitable for the first time. Reading the filing entirely lends to that 'theory'.

Don't contribute to the hysteria Brandon. Think before you type.

Auto Sales Projections Add More Worry to Sirius XM

It is in GM's interest to 'guide down' sales estimates. They are asking for government money to avoid bankruptcy. Most analysts are in the 12-12.5 range still. It is a crap shoot for GM right now, they in terrible shape financially. I also think SIRI has begun to focus on the 'retail' and 'portable' market segments. That should help keep the subscriber numbers up.

DirecTV Is Flashing a Buy Signal - Barron's

Sirius is no longer 'flirting with bankruptcy'. Liberty solved that issue, and Malone is now set to repair Sirius XM the way he has Direct TV.

Analysts Weigh in on Sirius' First Quarter as a Merged Company

Wow, the comment here are rougher than the analysts. SIRI is showing that they can control expenses, and service the debt. Now if they can only get the debt holders to extend or convert (2/09) then they can survive and thrive in 2009. I guess the analysts are generally in agreement. Fix the debt issue, the company survives. If they do that an RS is not needed.

Retail Firms at Risk for Bankruptcy

Looks like Hertz stopped talking and started suing these jerks!
www.law.com/jsp/articl...

Sirius Investors Need to Summon Up More Patience... Again

One more small point. The ONLY officer of the company who does NOT have a payment due on 'change of control' is Mel. He is not running this company anymore. Malone is.