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Commodities and the Fed: Answering the Skeptics

Speculation has almost everything to do with the recent price run up. Have you checked the volume. I have traded CL futures for about 3 years and up until about 4 months ago the highest volume in any 5 min bar on the electronic exchange was roughly 4000 to 5000 contracts. Recently that volume is now spiking to 8000 to 10000, and on 1 recent supply report volume was 16000 contracts. You want to tell me that is a coincidence? As for the increase in supply issue, too many economists get caught in models and theories and forget real life. In the futures markets the commercials are net short. They are not going to be filling their tanks at these prices when they believe the prices are inflated. I know I don't fill my tank, I purchase just what I need. Even if I'm paying $15.00 this week and $14.75 last week, I rather have the other $50.00 to use on something else rather than sitting in my tank. At some point the theories and models lose out to practicality and common sense.
There is no need for a refiner to have anymore inventory than is necessary at these prices.