Herd Mentality Is Behind the Gains in the Markets [View article]
Anyone who claims to "see" where equities will be going over the next year is 'whistling in the dark." The only reasonable strategy for making money in the markets over the next several months is to be a short term trader with a discipline. Over many years I never believed in technical analysis, but right now buy and hold does seem to be a dead end. It could be that the rate of change of business realities (technology, politics, financials) implies that new companies cannot expect to be successful for more than a very few decades before change makes their basic business plan irrelevant. That would imply that business strategies should be based on an expectation that the company will either fold or be sold in a couple of decades after going public. Nevertheless, with the right plan that approach could still be very profitable.
Government's Handling of Economic Crisis - Einstein Would Call It Insane [View article]
Bagsnatcher! I mostly agree with the financial/economic sentiments expressed in your comment. And there is not enough information in your note to know where you are coming from... except it's probably not from USA. Your comments, however, seem to indicate an enthusiastic and mostly unreasonable anti-American sentiment with penurious tones. I wonder why!! With something like 350 million people, the population of America is, of course, very diverse with different and varied opinions on almost any issue. To me the major counterpoint to the sentiment expressed in your note is that, in modern history, there has never been another dominant government that (of course, imperfectly) so represents human rights, sensible approaches to human dignity, life, liberty and the pursuit of human happiness. Historically this has included well wishes and considerable support for other nations that display similar values. Yes, of course, again, not without terrible mistakes. Unfortunately that's the human condition.
Eye on Financial ETFs this Earnings Season [View article]
My guess at 2 AM EDT Sunday (8 PM Hawaii time Saturday) is that the Monday market will open with lots of buying and by mid day will sell off. Leveraged long index ETFs (BGU and FAS) will start higher at the open and then fall before the end of trading on Monday. Just the reverse for leveraged short index funds (SDS). Why am I going out on this limb? Maybe I'm a masochist, but it's actually an attempt to discipline myself to be more cautious about my enthusiastic prognostications. If the above predictions work out to be prescient, then I invite all readers to send me lots of money to start my own hedge fund.
Herd Mentality Is Behind the Gains in the Markets [View article]
Over many years I never believed in technical analysis, but right now buy and hold does seem to be a dead end. It could be that the rate of change of business realities (technology, politics, financials) implies that new companies cannot expect to be successful for more than a very few decades before change makes their basic business plan irrelevant. That would imply that business strategies should be based on an expectation that the company will either fold or be sold in a couple of decades after going public. Nevertheless, with the right plan that approach could still be very profitable.
Government's Handling of Economic Crisis - Einstein Would Call It Insane [View article]
I mostly agree with the financial/economic sentiments expressed in your comment. And there is not enough information in your note to know where you are coming from... except it's probably not from USA. Your comments, however, seem to indicate an enthusiastic and mostly unreasonable anti-American sentiment with penurious tones. I wonder why!!
With something like 350 million people, the population of America is, of course, very diverse with different and varied opinions on almost any issue. To me the major counterpoint to the sentiment expressed in your note is that, in modern history, there has never been another dominant government that (of course, imperfectly) so represents human rights, sensible approaches to human dignity, life, liberty and the pursuit of human happiness. Historically this has included well wishes and considerable support for other nations that display similar values. Yes, of course, again, not without terrible mistakes. Unfortunately that's the human condition.
Eye on Financial ETFs this Earnings Season [View article]
Why am I going out on this limb? Maybe I'm a masochist, but it's actually an attempt to discipline myself to be more cautious about my enthusiastic prognostications. If the above predictions work out to be prescient, then I invite all readers to send me lots of money to start my own hedge fund.