Colin Chen's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/180707/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/71544-decoupling-the-theory-that-won-t-die?source=feed#comment-154991 154991
That mentioned, I share the author's opinion that the infrastructure of these economies have some what decoupled from the west, and a slow down in the US won't wreck as much havok on the chinese and indian economies' GDP growths.

However, the various financial markets have become much more interlinked and codependent. I shutter to imagine the global capital flow suddenly changing course or if the china starts massively selling its accumulated US treasury securities...]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 22:27:08 -0400
That mentioned, I share the author's opinion that the infrastructure of these economies have some what decoupled from the west, and a slow down in the US won't wreck as much havok on the chinese and indian economies' GDP growths.

However, the various financial markets have become much more interlinked and codependent. I shutter to imagine the global capital flow suddenly changing course or if the china starts massively selling its accumulated US treasury securities...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73099-china-s-economic-trouble-may-just-be-beginning?source=feed#comment-154978 154978
In anycase, the EU is China's largest trading partner, and the increased export to EU from the overvaluation of the euro should some what offset the slowing demand from the US caused by the drop in the dollar. The drop in light manufacturing and textiles are to be expected as beijing has in recent years abandoned the cultivation of those industries in place of more sophisticated industries. A rise in unemployment combined with a growing inflation rate is troubling however.
What worries me the most is huge amount of cash moving to Hong Kong in red chips and H-shares. Is there another chinese speculation bubble this soon?]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 21:34:27 -0400
In anycase, the EU is China's largest trading partner, and the increased export to EU from the overvaluation of the euro should some what offset the slowing demand from the US caused by the drop in the dollar. The drop in light manufacturing and textiles are to be expected as beijing has in recent years abandoned the cultivation of those industries in place of more sophisticated industries. A rise in unemployment combined with a growing inflation rate is troubling however.
What worries me the most is huge amount of cash moving to Hong Kong in red chips and H-shares. Is there another chinese speculation bubble this soon?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/73316-china-s-worst-bear-market?source=feed#comment-154973 154973
Adding to the fire is the allowance of some chinese domestic investors to seek better investment opportunities abroad (hong kong in particular) through the QDII program. Not even the most nationalistic chinese would place his money in a rigged opaque domestic market.]]> Tue, 22 Apr 2008 21:16:32 -0400
Adding to the fire is the allowance of some chinese domestic investors to seek better investment opportunities abroad (hong kong in particular) through the QDII program. Not even the most nationalistic chinese would place his money in a rigged opaque domestic market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/72904-the-chinese-rmb-and-the-euro?source=feed#comment-153598 153598
great post prof. pettis. In response to your older writing about the unexpected pressure on Chinese inflation, can such inflation be linked to the exchange rate?

This is what I believe could be the possible linkage. A depreciation of the dollar implies a decreased global purchasing power of the us populus. This in turn significantly slows the growth of demand for chinese goods and services, which would limit the real GDP growth. If MV=PY, could it be that the rate at which the Chinese central bank was increasing the money supply significantly outpaced the real growth of the economy, leading to a much much larger increase in the price levels?]]> Sun, 20 Apr 2008 05:57:36 -0400
great post prof. pettis. In response to your older writing about the unexpected pressure on Chinese inflation, can such inflation be linked to the exchange rate?

This is what I believe could be the possible linkage. A depreciation of the dollar implies a decreased global purchasing power of the us populus. This in turn significantly slows the growth of demand for chinese goods and services, which would limit the real GDP growth. If MV=PY, could it be that the rate at which the Chinese central bank was increasing the money supply significantly outpaced the real growth of the economy, leading to a much much larger increase in the price levels?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71722-five-ways-to-invest-in-china-and-india?source=feed#comment-153587 153587 Sun, 20 Apr 2008 02:53:30 -0400