ChipSeal

Federal Rescue: Unthinkable Trillions

jdl51 said: "Your article gives the false impression that this is money that is being spent with no hope of recovery. The stimulus package is the only part that won't be paid back. The rest, including bailout money, if things work out, will be returned or the guarantees will no longer be needed."

Any money "recovered" will be spent by congress. There is no hope that any of this will ever relieve a taxpayer of any burden.

Secondly, how is all that hope and change working out for you America?

S&P 500 Earnings: Biggest Decline on Record

"I think the Yen will explode like crazy in the coming weeks."

While the hyperinflation model seems to fit the present situation, dollar bear are failing to realize that today, while the dollar is in terrible shape, it is the least terrible currency around.

Harley Davidson: Plan for More Downside

Last week we actually saw a pig fly!

Will It Be Kool-Aid or Rebuilding My Short Positions?

"I'm glad to hear that I'm not alone facing the unpleasant task of eating my shorts."

Ewwwwe!

Next In Line for Bailout? Life Insurance Companies

There could be a "run" on folks whole life balances when they realize that financially distressed state's guarantees are inadequate to cover shortfalls in their policies.

Four Bad Ideas for Paid Newspaper Content Online

All these schemes assume someone would want to pay for it. The problem is the content sucks!

As long as these "news" outlets remain shills for big government and refuse to actually develop original content* they will be unable to draw revenue from their product.

* Today "reporters" re-write whatever faxes that come in from various interest groups. Do they ever get more than ten feet from their desks?

4 Reasons Why 'Going Green' Will Put Many Investors in the Red

"This green must sit on a large base of reliable nuclear power."

It ought to, but it won't happen while BHO is in office.

Evidence: He just flushed the Elk Mountain depository.

20 Questions About the Markets

"17) When will the S&P 500 trade at 1000 again?"

Sometime after it trades at 550!

The Average Stock Is Now Very Cheap

"The reason why earnings have collapsed is because of write-offs"

Write offs are an abandonment of future earning expectations held as book value. While they can be dismissed when assessing current quarter earnings, they are an ominous sign for future earnings.

Buy and Hold Stocks: Now More Relevant than Ever

"But when stocks are cheap, load up the truck, and wait.
And now, stocks are cheap. Very cheap."

After bankruptcy, they will be cheaper still!

Load up if you want. Just be careful to buy a firm that will survive the next five years. I expect about 20% of publicly traded companies will not.

American consumer spending will not reach the levels seen in the past 10 years for a long time to come. Consider that mortgage equity withdrawals contributed over $400 billion a quarter to the USA economy. Those are gone.

The American consumer is now saving instead of spending. (What little they had in savings is diminished, and retirement looms ominously close.) And soon he will be saving and paying a higher tax burden instead of spending. This will be a VERY long trend.

Because of that, we have too many factories, stores, restaurants, car dealerships, office buildings and capacity of all types. GDP will not grow until this overcapacity is worked off. Any buy and hold now will be premature, and risk being an investment in a soon to be failing enterprise.

Better to wait a few years and miss the very bottom. Growth will be slow and painful for the next decade or so, so the risk of being late to the party is tiny compared to the risk of being early. (3-4% vs. 100% loss in a bankruptcy)

Chart of the Week: GDP Worse than Expected

Initial claims cannot be thought of as anything but optimistic hope. Wait a month and they will be revised to reality.

The administration knows that the revised figures won't make headlines from a seriously incurious media, as they are overshadowed by the latest optimistic lie.

The "too big to fail" banks revise their latest earning report with a Friday after hours 10-K filing- They had inflated their balance sheet by a few tens of billions. Nice.

All we know is, no matter what the current report is, it is really worse than they are saying.

Time to Bury the Markets?

"The bankers surely should be investigated and indicted, and called up before a Grand Jury, but all is quiet in these areas."

It will never happen, because any hearing will reveal how congress enabled the fraud and liar loans. As it stands now, congress is posturing as "innocent bystanders" to the crime they are an essential part of.

Remember, politicians don't make economic decisions. They make political decisions that have economic consequences.

GE: Initiating Coverage with a Sell

"How much lower do you expect GE to go?"

$4

GE: Can You Hit This Fastball, Mr. Immelt?

"I see nothing he can do to turn it around right now and i don't see him being able to do anything for 3 or 4 years, at least. He cant sell off assets in this environment, they aren't worth anything."

GE could sell its wind turbine business for a premium. After that I agree.

What division is going to outperform? Media? Appliances?

While their heavy industry has bright spots, they are fighting the headwinds of foreign currency and world recession.

Whatever value GE has is being torpedoed by GECC. Who has confidence that they will be able to dodge the next credit shoe to fall: Commercial real estate?

The Astonishing Budget Deficit

While the unemployment numbers were terrible, just imagine how awful they would have been if the stimulus hadn't been passed!