ChipSeal's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/180742/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/140486-federal-rescue-unthinkable-trillions?source=feed#comment-525135 525135
Any money "recovered" will be spent by congress. There is no hope that any of this will ever relieve a taxpayer of any burden.

Secondly, how is all that hope and change working out for you America?]]> Sun, 31 May 2009 11:32:26 -0400
Any money "recovered" will be spent by congress. There is no hope that any of this will ever relieve a taxpayer of any burden.

Secondly, how is all that hope and change working out for you America?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127203-s-p-500-earnings-biggest-decline-on-record?source=feed#comment-436341 436341
While the hyperinflation model seems to fit the present situation, dollar bear are failing to realize that today, while the dollar is in terrible shape, it is the least terrible currency around.]]> Mon, 23 Mar 2009 09:09:37 -0400
While the hyperinflation model seems to fit the present situation, dollar bear are failing to realize that today, while the dollar is in terrible shape, it is the least terrible currency around.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/126120-harley-davidson-plan-for-more-downside?source=feed#comment-427414 427414 Mon, 16 Mar 2009 09:22:10 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/125326-will-it-be-kool-aid-or-rebuilding-my-short-positions?source=feed#comment-422054 422054
Ewwwwe!]]> Wed, 11 Mar 2009 14:18:52 -0400
Ewwwwe!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124255-next-in-line-for-bailout-life-insurance-companies?source=feed#comment-413962 413962 Thu, 05 Mar 2009 09:11:34 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/124057-four-bad-ideas-for-paid-newspaper-content-online?source=feed#comment-412812 412812
As long as these "news" outlets remain shills for big government and refuse to actually develop original content* they will be unable to draw revenue from their product.

* Today "reporters" re-write whatever faxes that come in from various interest groups. Do they ever get more than ten feet from their desks?]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 12:13:02 -0500
As long as these "news" outlets remain shills for big government and refuse to actually develop original content* they will be unable to draw revenue from their product.

* Today "reporters" re-write whatever faxes that come in from various interest groups. Do they ever get more than ten feet from their desks?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/124022-4-reasons-why-going-green-will-put-many-investors-in-the-red?source=feed#comment-412795 412795
It ought to, but it won't happen while BHO is in office.

Evidence: He just flushed the Elk Mountain depository.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 12:01:49 -0500
It ought to, but it won't happen while BHO is in office.

Evidence: He just flushed the Elk Mountain depository.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123815-20-questions-about-the-markets?source=feed#comment-412666 412666
Sometime after it trades at 550!

]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:02:43 -0500
Sometime after it trades at 550!

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123956-the-average-stock-is-now-very-cheap?source=feed#comment-412650 412650
Write offs are an abandonment of future earning expectations held as book value. While they can be dismissed when assessing current quarter earnings, they are an ominous sign for future earnings.]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:48:56 -0500
Write offs are an abandonment of future earning expectations held as book value. While they can be dismissed when assessing current quarter earnings, they are an ominous sign for future earnings.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123958-buy-and-hold-stocks-now-more-relevant-than-ever?source=feed#comment-412560 412560 And now, stocks are cheap. Very cheap."

After bankruptcy, they will be cheaper still!

Load up if you want. Just be careful to buy a firm that will survive the next five years. I expect about 20% of publicly traded companies will not.

American consumer spending will not reach the levels seen in the past 10 years for a long time to come. Consider that mortgage equity withdrawals contributed over $400 billion a quarter to the USA economy. Those are gone.

The American consumer is now saving instead of spending. (What little they had in savings is diminished, and retirement looms ominously close.) And soon he will be saving and paying a higher tax burden instead of spending. This will be a VERY long trend.

Because of that, we have too many factories, stores, restaurants, car dealerships, office buildings and capacity of all types. GDP will not grow until this overcapacity is worked off. Any buy and hold now will be premature, and risk being an investment in a soon to be failing enterprise.

Better to wait a few years and miss the very bottom. Growth will be slow and painful for the next decade or so, so the risk of being late to the party is tiny compared to the risk of being early. (3-4% vs. 100% loss in a bankruptcy)


]]> Wed, 04 Mar 2009 10:07:36 -0500 And now, stocks are cheap. Very cheap."

After bankruptcy, they will be cheaper still!

Load up if you want. Just be careful to buy a firm that will survive the next five years. I expect about 20% of publicly traded companies will not.

American consumer spending will not reach the levels seen in the past 10 years for a long time to come. Consider that mortgage equity withdrawals contributed over $400 billion a quarter to the USA economy. Those are gone.

The American consumer is now saving instead of spending. (What little they had in savings is diminished, and retirement looms ominously close.) And soon he will be saving and paying a higher tax burden instead of spending. This will be a VERY long trend.

Because of that, we have too many factories, stores, restaurants, car dealerships, office buildings and capacity of all types. GDP will not grow until this overcapacity is worked off. Any buy and hold now will be premature, and risk being an investment in a soon to be failing enterprise.

Better to wait a few years and miss the very bottom. Growth will be slow and painful for the next decade or so, so the risk of being late to the party is tiny compared to the risk of being early. (3-4% vs. 100% loss in a bankruptcy)


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123306-chart-of-the-week-gdp-worse-than-expected?source=feed#comment-408052 408052
The administration knows that the revised figures won't make headlines from a seriously incurious media, as they are overshadowed by the latest optimistic lie.

The "too big to fail" banks revise their latest earning report with a Friday after hours 10-K filing- They had inflated their balance sheet by a few tens of billions. Nice.

All we know is, no matter what the current report is, it is really worse than they are saying. ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:16:35 -0500
The administration knows that the revised figures won't make headlines from a seriously incurious media, as they are overshadowed by the latest optimistic lie.

The "too big to fail" banks revise their latest earning report with a Friday after hours 10-K filing- They had inflated their balance sheet by a few tens of billions. Nice.

All we know is, no matter what the current report is, it is really worse than they are saying. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123315-time-to-bury-the-markets?source=feed#comment-408040 408040
It will never happen, because any hearing will reveal how congress enabled the fraud and liar loans. As it stands now, congress is posturing as "innocent bystanders" to the crime they are an essential part of.

Remember, politicians don't make economic decisions. They make political decisions that have economic consequences. ]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 13:00:47 -0500
It will never happen, because any hearing will reveal how congress enabled the fraud and liar loans. As it stands now, congress is posturing as "innocent bystanders" to the crime they are an essential part of.

Remember, politicians don't make economic decisions. They make political decisions that have economic consequences. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123096-ge-initiating-coverage-with-a-sell?source=feed#comment-405968 405968
$4]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 12:03:38 -0500
$4]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/123136-ge-can-you-hit-this-fastball-mr-immelt?source=feed#comment-405957 405957
GE could sell its wind turbine business for a premium. After that I agree.

What division is going to outperform? Media? Appliances?

While their heavy industry has bright spots, they are fighting the headwinds of foreign currency and world recession.

Whatever value GE has is being torpedoed by GECC. Who has confidence that they will be able to dodge the next credit shoe to fall: Commercial real estate?]]> Fri, 27 Feb 2009 11:58:08 -0500
GE could sell its wind turbine business for a premium. After that I agree.

What division is going to outperform? Media? Appliances?

While their heavy industry has bright spots, they are fighting the headwinds of foreign currency and world recession.

Whatever value GE has is being torpedoed by GECC. Who has confidence that they will be able to dodge the next credit shoe to fall: Commercial real estate?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122897-the-astonishing-budget-deficit?source=feed#comment-405825 405825 Fri, 27 Feb 2009 10:39:37 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/122784-wasteful-behavior-northern-trust-s-response?source=feed#comment-404604 404604 You whine if they don't spend/loan the money and you whine when they do.]]> Thu, 26 Feb 2009 12:00:03 -0500 You whine if they don't spend/loan the money and you whine when they do.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122420-the-market-is-not-your-friend?source=feed#comment-403267 403267
Better that than actually doing something! In fact, I would feel more secure if the banking committee went on an extended junket somewhere. politicians can only do harm then the "help".]]> Wed, 25 Feb 2009 13:13:12 -0500
Better that than actually doing something! In fact, I would feel more secure if the banking committee went on an extended junket somewhere. politicians can only do harm then the "help".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/122216-readjusting-expectations-for-market-recovery?source=feed#comment-401223 401223 Tue, 24 Feb 2009 09:19:19 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121831-bank-lending-some-bad-news-out-of-s-p-and-latvia?source=feed#comment-398689 398689
Banks are constrained by bad balance sheets that they need to shore up. They will therefore write new business to those who have superior credit worthiness. Collateral minimums are also being expanded because of declining values. They are extending the loans held on their books to protect their default rate.

Most borrowers have too high of debt to income levels already to qualify for new loans. They don't have the means for large down payments. The assets they own are declining in value.

The borrowers who can get loans do not want to borrow when the value of assets are declining- there will be better opportunities in the future.

It is what happens in a deflationary cycle. ]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 12:19:21 -0500
Banks are constrained by bad balance sheets that they need to shore up. They will therefore write new business to those who have superior credit worthiness. Collateral minimums are also being expanded because of declining values. They are extending the loans held on their books to protect their default rate.

Most borrowers have too high of debt to income levels already to qualify for new loans. They don't have the means for large down payments. The assets they own are declining in value.

The borrowers who can get loans do not want to borrow when the value of assets are declining- there will be better opportunities in the future.

It is what happens in a deflationary cycle. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121888-predatory-legislators?source=feed#comment-398588 398588
Hopelessly naive. With the crowd just recently elected, prudent Americans cannot stop this runaway train to fiscal ruin. Too many of our fellow citizens are looking to Big Government for their salvation. It is a cautionary tale for the separation of school and state. ]]> Sun, 22 Feb 2009 11:31:02 -0500
Hopelessly naive. With the crowd just recently elected, prudent Americans cannot stop this runaway train to fiscal ruin. Too many of our fellow citizens are looking to Big Government for their salvation. It is a cautionary tale for the separation of school and state. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121753-scary-numbers?source=feed#comment-397929 397929
You say that like it was a bad thing!]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 14:58:56 -0500
You say that like it was a bad thing!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121799-madoff-stanford-sagas-new-twists?source=feed#comment-397906 397906

On Feb 21 08:29 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> how many more madoff stanfords do we have lurking in the bushes that
> have not been discovered.?

Top on the list of Ponzi schemes is Social Security!]]> Sat, 21 Feb 2009 14:32:15 -0500

On Feb 21 08:29 AM john s. gordon wrote:

> how many more madoff stanfords do we have lurking in the bushes that
> have not been discovered.?

Top on the list of Ponzi schemes is Social Security!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121489-up-days-the-scarcest-commodity-of-all?source=feed#comment-396313 396313 Fri, 20 Feb 2009 09:08:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/121510-if-you-re-bearish-time-has-run-out-for-a-rally?source=feed#comment-396285 396285 dshort.com/charts/bear...

The above link compares four bears. Please note that the GD chart is of the DOW and the others are of the S&P 500. The time frame is days of trading from the previous high. It was brought up to date yesterday.]]> Fri, 20 Feb 2009 08:55:40 -0500 dshort.com/charts/bear...

The above link compares four bears. Please note that the GD chart is of the DOW and the others are of the S&P 500. The time frame is days of trading from the previous high. It was brought up to date yesterday.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120956-money-markets-fear-on-the-rise?source=feed#comment-393702 393702
Balderdash! The judicial branch is more than capable of imposing a solution. The principals involver wish to avoid it because the court doesn't give preferential treatment to some of the parties.

In bankruptcy, the interests of each participant is considered in how assets are disposed. Pain for all. (Excepting the lawyers of course!) But treasury officials and politicians can be manipulated to favor one interest over another.]]> Wed, 18 Feb 2009 12:56:12 -0500
Balderdash! The judicial branch is more than capable of imposing a solution. The principals involver wish to avoid it because the court doesn't give preferential treatment to some of the parties.

In bankruptcy, the interests of each participant is considered in how assets are disposed. Pain for all. (Excepting the lawyers of course!) But treasury officials and politicians can be manipulated to favor one interest over another.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120687-top-10-energy-stocks-and-an-overlooked-power-fund?source=feed#comment-391278 391278 Do your own DD, you will be glad you did.
Disclosure: I am long EGY both as a shareholder and April call options. Good luck!]]> Mon, 16 Feb 2009 20:09:25 -0500 Do your own DD, you will be glad you did.
Disclosure: I am long EGY both as a shareholder and April call options. Good luck!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120610-time-to-invest-in-reits?source=feed#comment-389411 389411 CRE) values are stratospherically high.

First head: Most regional and community banks made Fanny/Freddy loans for origination fees but have few residential loans on their books. So they are over-weighted with CRE loans, many that are in trouble as business suffers, and they MUST repair their balance sheets. Therefore, most of them are unable to lend.

Second head: The deteriorating business environment is making many CREs too risky to lend to. Some are in imminent danger of violating current loan covenants. Warren Buffet is lending- but only if he can get 10-15% in a 4% world.

Third head: Those that are credit worthy to lend to are not yet willing to borrow. With CRE values continuing to plunge and vacancy rate rising, why borrow now when better bargains are ahead?

Keep your powder dry. CRE has two or three more legs to go down. And then it will lag behind the market for years as the tremendous present overcapacity gets drawn down.

]]> Sun, 15 Feb 2009 12:53:11 -0500 CRE) values are stratospherically high.

First head: Most regional and community banks made Fanny/Freddy loans for origination fees but have few residential loans on their books. So they are over-weighted with CRE loans, many that are in trouble as business suffers, and they MUST repair their balance sheets. Therefore, most of them are unable to lend.

Second head: The deteriorating business environment is making many CREs too risky to lend to. Some are in imminent danger of violating current loan covenants. Warren Buffet is lending- but only if he can get 10-15% in a 4% world.

Third head: Those that are credit worthy to lend to are not yet willing to borrow. With CRE values continuing to plunge and vacancy rate rising, why borrow now when better bargains are ahead?

Keep your powder dry. CRE has two or three more legs to go down. And then it will lag behind the market for years as the tremendous present overcapacity gets drawn down.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/120127-four-myths-about-the-obama-geithner-plan?source=feed#comment-385909 385909
Government cannot do anything but make thing worse if they interfere with the new price discovery needed for a stable housing market.

First, big government is the least likely entity to fix ANYTHING that is complex. Does anyone think that Schumer, Biden, Palosi and Reid could properly create something that would work? Please!

The moment a program is created to "help" distressed homeowners who are three months behind in their payments by re-writing the terms of their contract, it incentives healthy homeowners to become delinquent. Why shouldn't they be able to get in on this deal too?

The big problem with expecting government to come to the rescue is that politicians do not make economic decisions- They make POLITICAL decisions that have economic consequences!

We keep seeking and expecting relief from the wrong branches of government. Neither the legislative branch nor the executive can properly deal with an economic crisis. There is, however, one branch that has vast experience in this field- and much success as well. The judicial branch, where all interested parties get consideration in any adjustments, not just those who have made heroic sized political donations.]]> Thu, 12 Feb 2009 13:25:04 -0500
Government cannot do anything but make thing worse if they interfere with the new price discovery needed for a stable housing market.

First, big government is the least likely entity to fix ANYTHING that is complex. Does anyone think that Schumer, Biden, Palosi and Reid could properly create something that would work? Please!

The moment a program is created to "help" distressed homeowners who are three months behind in their payments by re-writing the terms of their contract, it incentives healthy homeowners to become delinquent. Why shouldn't they be able to get in on this deal too?

The big problem with expecting government to come to the rescue is that politicians do not make economic decisions- They make POLITICAL decisions that have economic consequences!

We keep seeking and expecting relief from the wrong branches of government. Neither the legislative branch nor the executive can properly deal with an economic crisis. There is, however, one branch that has vast experience in this field- and much success as well. The judicial branch, where all interested parties get consideration in any adjustments, not just those who have made heroic sized political donations.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119703-thinking-beyond-stimulus?source=feed#comment-384429 384429
What does that sentence mean? What does "tone" mean? Middle C? How do you "leverage" a tone?

"...why [are we] rushing into an approach that would change, probably forever, many of the fundamental tenets and structures of this country, and change the relationship of government to people, businesses, the capital markets and other institutions?"

You have made the mistake of thinking this bill is about reviving our economy. It is really just about change. Bigger government. Changing forever many of the fundamental tenets and structures of this country, changing the relationship of government to people, and of government to business, government to the capital markets and other institutions. Isn't this the change you voted for?]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 15:18:59 -0500
What does that sentence mean? What does "tone" mean? Middle C? How do you "leverage" a tone?

"...why [are we] rushing into an approach that would change, probably forever, many of the fundamental tenets and structures of this country, and change the relationship of government to people, businesses, the capital markets and other institutions?"

You have made the mistake of thinking this bill is about reviving our economy. It is really just about change. Bigger government. Changing forever many of the fundamental tenets and structures of this country, changing the relationship of government to people, and of government to business, government to the capital markets and other institutions. Isn't this the change you voted for?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119734-congress-needs-a-course-in-remedial-finance?source=feed#comment-383743 383743
That would just grow the economy. But it wouldn't grow the size of government enough, therefore the idea is a non-starter.

Remember: Congress always does the right thing- but only after it has exhausted all other possibilities!]]> Wed, 11 Feb 2009 09:35:02 -0500
That would just grow the economy. But it wouldn't grow the size of government enough, therefore the idea is a non-starter.

Remember: Congress always does the right thing- but only after it has exhausted all other possibilities!]]>