tagthatstock

Thursday Options Update: BRCD, WYN, CAR, TGT, CBST & KMB

concerning KMB,,, alot of the 2nd level 'back to basics' stocks have had alot of buying in a variety pack of calls across many months and strikes. i have been 'following the money when i see it'..

it appears someone may be trying to put together their own version of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A or BRK-B)

it is not impossible to think they could run or enter higher price ranges given their relatively medium size floats and and large revenues... after all IBM trades well above $100

i think what your radar picked up was the ever rare underpriced calls or someone who wrote the calls a long time ago wants them back.

Is the Fed Buying Stocks to Reflate the Banks?

i think your article is spot on.

ever so slowly i think j6p out of need or revenge will stop paying his mortgage. a fellow trader told an entire of board of stock traders his real job is a rewriter for mortgages,,,,and he hasnt paid his own mortgage in months and has no intention of doing so until 2011 because that is when some rule window closes,,,,,,until then he trades and collect profits that more than cover his mortgage completely.

currently the news is all about the job bubble. 90-80% employment,,,,,,lets say 20% unemployed....'we have too many people working' 'is working' in the markets,,,,,,,,for how long? i dunno. but will we work towards 80% unemployment? i dunno,,,,i guess we wait and see. for the past several years the media hated 95%+ employment. this leads me to the retail sales... at first the normal happened,,it got sluggish... but not as sluggish as expected...so i figure those not paying their mortgages are shopping with some of that 'new cash'...........

we are in interesting times for sure.....something bernanke could never learn in a book or studies of the great depression if the paradigm is completely dif this time around.......namely 'technology' to out smart/work around his helicopter ride via computer 'daytrading',,,,,more cash movement than he can manage----for now. i can hear it now, when he does raise rates,,,,,the bulls will say its because of growth......no its because of bubbles that he played a part in creating.

can you imagine every assett going up huge in price and still the demand falls off a cliff..... it would mess with the boys in school for years lol.

The Swine Flu daily

no position, the stock was noticed as a nonstop pump on daytrader sites. i really dont understand why people are so gullible about the H1N1 'pandemic',,,,,,,,,,,,... wash your hands and use some clorox to clean your area and avoid 'sick people' as usual.

too many people falling into the chicken little mindset-and the media is loving it.

im starting to worry that our mom's raised alot of pretty stupid people. if that is the case,,,,then we NEED a pandemic just to kill the spread of STUPID.

Novavax's VLP Flu Vaccine Is A Game Changer

no position, the stock was noticed as a nonstop pump on daytrader sites. i really dont understand why people are so gullible about the H1N1 'pandemic',,,,,,,,,,,,... wash your hands and use some clorox to clean your area and avoid 'sick people' as usual.

too many people falling into the chicken little mindset-and the media is loving it.

im starting to worry that our mom's raised alot of pretty stupid people. if that is the case,,,,then we NEED a pandemic.

Is a Crash Impending?

mark,

concerning gold,,,,,,it is not a constant of valuation measurements. gold is no dif than anything else built then sold with debt backing. the miners take on debt to mine and that is passed forward to each set of buyers along the food chain.

in 2001 i was talking to myself for the most part on yahoo about the value of a gold stock BGO-------now bought out. but as time has gone on i find it hard to give credibility to 'bears' who push gold stocks/product.....bec... it is very much the same as what we see/saw in real estate,,,,,,,somebody elses debt included.

fwiw,,,i also dont consider a person a 'bear' if they are recommending oil or gas or whatever. and i will tell you why:

that person says he is a bear and yet buys growth assets. he is involving himself in another form of a ponzi scheme. for if his bearish beliefs are very true,,,,,then what idiot is buying more oil or gas or gold for a lack of end customer? they say its to protect themselves from the devaluation of the currency. no,,,they are telling themselves the very same thing other before them told/marketed them in books or whatever. gold and oil and gas as we see it now for awhile has been bursting and has had its own bubbles of 'bears',,,,,,,a true bear knows that when a real market tank comes,,,,,,,it will be a global run on currencies not commodities and once all of the currencies are way UP there,,,,,then everyone is scared,,,,,,,,then you buy the commodities for when the fear bubble busts.

i dont see a fear bubble busting for some time.....so far the sheeple have been passive. i will sit up and take notice when whispers of pinata politician party's or whack a banker become more main stream.----------and i will look away and wont convict.

fd-no position in gold,,,,,,,,family trust of oil/natgas. (and its not time to buy ANY of it)


On Aug 31 01:53 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Karl:
>
> Let me explain the problem with your thinkings. You, like most people,
> intuitively consider the US dollar as money and as a constant measurement
> of valuation. But the US dollar, otherwise known as Federal Reserve
> Notes, is not money. It is a debt coupon. A debt coupon which is
> leveraged on the prospect of US economy and the ability of US government
> to collect future tax to pay off the debt. The dollar is NOT a constant,
> gold is a constant of valuation measurements.
>
> The corrent US deficit policy is driving market capital to flee the
> US market and go some where else. The deficit can not be covered
> by more borrowing from foreigners. It must be covered either by monetization
> of debts, which causes the US dollar to collapse and forces market
> capital to flee from US dollar assets, or by heavier taxation, which
> also forces market capital to flee the looming tax burden and it
> causes the US economy to deteriorate and capitals fleeing away.<br/>
>
> So any way you put it, it is extremely bearish for the US dollar.
> Relatively it is bullish for commodities and equities of companies
> that are responsible for commodities. Hyperinflation is coming. Are
> you positioned to protect yourself yet? Where can you put your money
> in? Not in cash, not in any debts, it can only be in commodities
> and equities.
>
> seekingalpha.com/autho...

Is a Crash Impending?

Mark, i can fully understand your notes on the $usd,,,,,it makes perfect logical sense. and that may be the problem. as an american i do not have to buy $usd's and i have no reason to buy any other currency. but i do have a reason to collect them. whether that be selling stocks or stuff,,,,,it dont matter to me,, mark cuban once said know the value of the stuff you have and the price a fool will pay for it ,,,,,,,,,,,then sell it to that fool.

so for the better part of a decade i have had buckets laying around just to 'collect fallling $usd's',,,,,,,,,,,,for i do not care about the daily moves the world market prices it at for that is all digital. in october 2004 Fidel Castro out lawed the $usd in Cuba,,,,,,,and yet the flow of actual $usd TO cuba has GROWN,,,,,,,,,so that is alot of cubans just waiting for the american adoption papers to show up. once those cubans are here in america they will be richer than most americans who did not save cold hard cash. (how do we feel about saying yes sir to a cuban boss? i dunno,,,but their kids are better educated (strangely) than ours,,,,,,,,all they need is a free arena to strut their stuff.

now back to my ideas on the $usd.......after you collect them in buckets,,,,,,you dont listend to wallstreet or bankers by 'investing them or saving then in a money market account',,,,,,,,,nope,... use the plain and simple space bag and the old shovel in the garage.

a banker nor wallstreet can rape your cash if they cant get their hands on it.

Karl,,,,,,, we should be near a top,,,an old friend George called me last week giddy that his account is near back to the levels it was pre 2008 crash this man ignored me at the top when i told him to go to cash,,,,,,,,,flat out cash! his recent celebration of being near break even ignores the lost year of his investments. the scary thing is George is in an important position at his employer and 'he doesnt get it' even now.-tag


On Aug 31 01:53 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Karl:
>
> Let me explain the problem with your thinkings. You, like most people,
> intuitively consider the US dollar as money and as a constant measurement
> of valuation. But the US dollar, otherwise known as Federal Reserve
> Notes, is not money. It is a debt coupon. A debt coupon which is
> leveraged on the prospect of US economy and the ability of US government
> to collect future tax to pay off the debt. The dollar is NOT a constant,
> gold is a constant of valuation measurements.
>
> The corrent US deficit policy is driving market capital to flee the
> US market and go some where else. The deficit can not be covered
> by more borrowing from foreigners. It must be covered either by monetization
> of debts, which causes the US dollar to collapse and forces market
> capital to flee from US dollar assets, or by heavier taxation, which
> also forces market capital to flee the looming tax burden and it
> causes the US economy to deteriorate and capitals fleeing away.<br/>
>
> So any way you put it, it is extremely bearish for the US dollar.
> Relatively it is bullish for commodities and equities of companies
> that are responsible for commodities. Hyperinflation is coming. Are
> you positioned to protect yourself yet? Where can you put your money
> in? Not in cash, not in any debts, it can only be in commodities
> and equities.
>
> seekingalpha.com/autho...

Doug Kass Goes All In Short

im just glad to see Kass loose his azz after his childish pump on april 1, 2008 with his april fools joke. real bears dont joke because they have to actually work for their trades since the market is 90% biased long/bullish.

on april 1 2008 kass lost all respect from the bear community and its no wonder he is actually a team member of bullside pumper jim cramer.

is the market toppy/overvalued here? yes and that can go on for sometime until bulls get tired of lower returns and start taking profits.

as for the bulls and the bears recent data says 99% of traders are long and all but 2 fundies are low on cash as longs. the 2 fundies with cash are active in the bottom of the european ipo market so you know they are not 'following the herd' btw,,,,they also beat the market up and down over the past several years.

anyway,,,,,,bulls pump it until you cant find another sucker to buy and bears pump it before you short it.

Health Insurers: Harnessing Volatility from Political Risk

i think the stock has simply peaked,,,,,there is no attractive reason to buy a stock with only a 2-3% profit margin and that was before loosing that govt account. i would 'get your puts back',,,,,,,and consider buying puts,,,,this stock doesnt have wallstreet volume interest, so any 'tank job' can take it to $17.

another thing hurting the insurance companies is the impression that they are broke like the banks. i know from hurricane IKE it has been like pulling teeth to get them to honor the policy they wrote me and after talking with others,,,,,,,its been determined the insurance industry is broke since they have to use stall tactics.........go to a bank and buy cd's,,,,,,create your own 'hsa' and leave out the middlemen until they can get their act together.

Voices About Oil

still surprised this stock is up, their reserves have been whacked in halfish and having cramer love it the same thing as saying you like lard for salad dressing. people paying $65 for a stock worth $38 tops is funny)- tighter math figures BPT is worth about $20

Cramer says BPT is similar to Permian Basin Trust which is up 27% since his recommendation. He prefers BPT, which is a pure play on oil whereas PermianBasin has natural gas exposure.

(PBT $9.20 prolly worth a gander after wallstreets calendar flips over to May 1---might get the stock for $5ish once these early to the party traders get stopped out.)

Voices About Oil

paying alot of money for BPT considering their 'reserves' are dropping too fast,,,,,as for COSWF im an not at all against otc/pinkies,,,,just know that you never trust a canadian book,,,,ZINC will be the 'gold of the future' the science has been around for decades and there is a world glut of it. zinc is a 2 sided energy source. as a 'solid' as in solar and as a consumable as in 'oil'.

The 15 Most Cash Rich Companies

sounds like the same magic math the banks were using,,,,,,cash means little if the debt is too high, cash gets burnt in economic downturns just paying the lightbill and employees.

better off investing in companies that will make more money BECAUSE of the economy being bad rather than hoping todays cash will be still there in the next quarter.

bears on other sites ripped into this pump a few days ago

15 Deep Value Plays

FUQI has some smoke and mirror math going on hense the cashflow data
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): -30.85M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): -51.12M


ZINC on the other hand doesnt and the company has tried to protect themselves best they could buying puts for industy protection.

FUQI was brought to my attention when i noticed it on a pump and dump site. right now is a buyers market and the buyer can demand quality.

Here Come Pharma's 'Me-Too' Mergers

Novartis AG (NVS) chief Dan Vasella also aired his thoughts on a call and said "there could be more deals," but not on his part: "I don't see any transformational deals for Novartis in the near future." Which leads us to comment, it all depends on how you define "transformational" and "near," doesn't it? - Alex Lash

i think what he meant by the remark is he can do small deals buying other companies while his stock is well underpriced to the sector......on anal math alone it would be trading at $55+,,,,,on buyout math it would be trading at $200............so,,,,... would buy them out? JNJ?

a few days ago someone bought a ton of feb45 calls and several other months too for nothing,,,,,,,odds favor buying further out than feb but crazy things have happened on options expire week.

CALL OPTIONS Strike Price at 45.00

Expires Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
Feb 09 NVSBI.X 0.13 0.00 0.05 0.15 4 2,017
Mar 09 NVSCI.X 0.35 0.00 0.25 0.40 1 1,386
Apr 09 NVSDI.X 0.75 0.10 0.65 0.85 16 1,932
Jul 09 NVSGI.X 1.57 0.08 1.50 1.80 15 606
Jan 10 LYYAI.X 3.00 0.00 3.00 3.50 1 124
Jan 11 ZAHAI.X 4.60 0.00 4.40 5.30 20 70

Fannie, Freddie and Multi-Family REITs Part I

reits are paying higher divy's than most other sectors,, the obama plan is all about 'saving re' so i wouldnt advice being short higher paying divy re's. especially given wallstreet has got to perform something for granny.

Conference Call Highlights: The Next BRIC to Fall on Agro-Chem Co's

legmaker: "I think we will see a terrible crop this year, with respect to corn, wheat and soybeans"-------i agree,,,,,,,,,so why waste your time on POT/MON/MOS etc.............when you can buy GRU $6.49 and YOU can control how well the world eats.---------'the next global war without a bullet being shot'