tagthatstock

Options Trader Friday Outlook: Is Goldman Sachs Stupid, Or Evil?

you guys are playing the game wrong,,,,

you have to find a better play than what the 'big boys' are playing,, najarian is a 'tool' for them along with a bunch of other clowns.

here is how it works,,, najarian will pump intc on tv/radio/subscribers,,... you find a better play,,,,recently he pumped intc 'massive call action' stock was 19 and it moved around a bit,,,,but daytraders know,,,,,,,you buy anything but what talking heads are pushing..we bought CREE at 34,,,,,sold at $45+- 10/21 for a tidy 30%+gain while intc squirmed and settled around the orginal 19 where is still sits today......


ok,,,so that was a good sector /chart play,,,,over time i think traders will learn to do some real math etc..(we gotta break 60+ years of education/bizmath damage!)

i will give you an example: (and yes i have positions)

LULU vs HOTT

some would say they shouldnt be compared. i really dont care what others say or think,,,,i approach all stocks from a tightwad investors point of view. i look at the math.

HOTT and LULU both have similar positive aspects: both have positive margins, profiability, both have positive cashflows in BOTH catagories. both are debtfree both are good with assetts and equity. but the value difference comes in revenues and valueations of each company.

lets suppose i want to buy a company dirt cheap,,,,and later sale it to somebody else. well i want to make sure i dont pay too much for the company i buy,, so i need to run some business math checks:

HOTT at $5.80 has a enterprise value (that is todays daytrader marketcap value AND any known/hidden debt issues) of $173m. so this tells me that i can buy a company with $768m in revs with cash and no debt for a fraction of what the suckers in LULU will pay me to buy out my HOTT investment down the road. 'thats a good bet' on top of my views that HOTT's target customer doesnt have a mortgage to worry about,,, and LULU's customer does and Academy can sell their customers any yoga gear they may think they must have.

HOTT $5.80
VALUATION MEASURES
Market Cap (intraday)5: 255.65M
Enterprise Value (20-Nov-09)3: 173.60M ----------the whole bowl of wax
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.33 -----------note the $17.48 per share rev's,,,,HOTT is a fraction of LULU= HOTT is dirt CHEAP
Price/Book (mrq): 0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.23 -------> HUGE DISCOUNT
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 2.513

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 768.20M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 17.484

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 82.05M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.862 -MORE cash per share than LULU
Total Debt (mrq): 0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 3.111 ----------nice credit rating!
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 5.905

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 1,145,120 -WRONG WAY WALLSTREET SELLING
Average Volume (10 day)3: 1,883,170
Shares Outstanding5: 44.08M
Float: 43.47M ------>SMALLER FLOAT THAN LULU
Shares Short (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 4.48M
Short % of Float (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 12.60%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 5.04M - was higher accumilation has begun & short squeeze is next


LULU $26.96
VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday)5: 1.89B
Enterprise Value (20-Nov-09)3: 1.81B
Price/Sales (ttm): 5.11 -------------->already fully overpriced for perfection!!!!
Price/Book (mrq): 10.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.89 ------mega overpriced! HOTT far better 'deal'
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 23.869

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 370.47M ----HALF OF HOTT REV'S
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 5.304 ---------HOTT makes $17.48 per share!

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 83.80M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.193
Total Debt (mrq): 0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 4.047
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 2.521

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 610,064 ------->WALLSTREET NOT BUYING
Average Volume (10 day)3: 478,100
Shares Outstanding5: 70.25M
Float: 56.63M
Shares Short (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 7.41M
Short Ratio (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 10.3 ---shorting more has begun
Short % of Float (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 42.60% -----kind of hard to squeeze a stock at the top end of range
Shares Short (prior month)3: 7.55M --'squeeze' already happened with cramer pump


On Nov 21 11:13 AM Mike from NYC wrote:

> Keep on dreaming that you can beat the big boys with nimbleness.
> GS and the other big shots have far more nimbleness than you can
> imagine and using tools you can't possibly have at your disposal.
>
>
> The worst thing to do is underestimate your enemy.

Options Trader Friday Outlook: Is Goldman Sachs Stupid, Or Evil?

connorport,,,,

i use etrade and love the platform,,,,as for the stock,,,i dont care if it goes bk or not,,,,somebody will want the customer base. everytime the markets get radical its the amertrade traders who spend an hour or so running around looking for back doors...(NOT etrade traders, everything stays smooth for us) .and THAT leads me to wonder NOT about their (ameritrade) platform,,,SOOOOO the better question nobody ever asks: is amertrade momentarily trapped in a cash/credit crunch.

nothing like having your entire daytrading port held 'hostage' by your broker lol,,,,makes you wonder if they pull the switch themselves to 'stop flow'.........

i have no position in either stock,,,,,i do like ICE tho,,,for it doesnt care what the markets/commodities/bonds etc are doing,,,their order flow just keeps on growing!


On Nov 20 01:32 PM connorport wrote:

> What??? They swooned off the TARP funds. This information is in now
> way plausible and is only intended to manipulate the market which
> is illegal itself.

The New Look of Recession-Proof Stocks

LULU vs HOTT

some would say they shouldnt be compared. i really dont care what others say or think,,,,i approach all stocks from a tightwad investors point of view. i look at the math.

HOTT and LULU both have similar positive aspects: both have positive margins, profiability, both have positive cashflows in BOTH catagories. both are debtfree both are good with assetts and equity. but the

value difference comes in revenues and valueations of each company.

lets suppose i want to buy a company dirt cheap,,,,and later sale it to somebody else. well i want to make sure i dont pay too much for the company i buy,, so i need to run some business math checks:

HOTT at $5.80 has a enterprise value (that is todays daytrader marketcap value AND any known/hidden debt issues) of $173m. so this tells me that i can buy a company with $768m in revs with cash and no

debt for a fraction of what the suckers in LULU will pay me to buy out my HOTT investment down the road. 'thats a good bet' on top of my views that HOTT's target customer doesnt have a mortgage to worry

about,,, and LULU's does and Academy can sell their customers any yoga gear they may think they must have.

HOTT $5.80
VALUATION MEASURES
Market Cap (intraday)5: 255.65M
Enterprise Value (20-Nov-09)3: 173.60M ----------the whole bowl of wax
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.33 -----------note the $17.48 per share rev's,,,,HOTT is a fraction of LULU= HOTT is dirt CHEAP
Price/Book (mrq): 0.98
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.23 -------> HUGE DISCOUNT
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 2.513

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 768.20M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 17.484

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 82.05M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.862 -MORE cash per share than LULU
Total Debt (mrq): 0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 3.111 ----------nice credit rating!
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 5.905

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 1,145,120 -WRONG WAY WALLSTREET SELLING
Average Volume (10 day)3: 1,883,170
Shares Outstanding5: 44.08M
Float: 43.47M ------>SMALLER FLOAT THAN LULU
Shares Short (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 4.48M
Short % of Float (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 12.60%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 5.04M - was higher accumilation has begun & short squeeze is next


LULU $26.96
VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday)5: 1.89B
Enterprise Value (20-Nov-09)3: 1.81B
Price/Sales (ttm): 5.11 -------------->already fully overpriced for perfection!!!!
Price/Book (mrq): 10.69
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 4.89 ------mega overpriced! HOTT far better 'deal'
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 23.869

Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 370.47M ----HALF OF HOTT REV'S
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 5.304 ---------HOTT makes $17.48 per share!

Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 83.80M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1.193
Total Debt (mrq): 0
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 4.047
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 2.521

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 610,064 ------->WALLSTREET NOT BUYING
Average Volume (10 day)3: 478,100
Shares Outstanding5: 70.25M
Float: 56.63M
Shares Short (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 7.41M
Short Ratio (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 10.3 ---shorting more has begun
Short % of Float (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 42.60% -----kind of hard to squeeze a stock at the top end of range
Shares Short (prior month)3: 7.55M --'squeeze' already happened with cramer pump

25 Breakout Stocks on Big Volume

keep an eye on GME 24.09 for mega run.

25 Breakout Stocks on Big Volume

cga volume was over the short interest (shorts covered, nobody else left to cover/buy) and has been a steady 'buy red and sell to the traders chasing china stocks' the next day.

next week everyone is gonna want low volume stocks to momo:

might watch for SMSI $7.11 or HOTT 6.67

always better to be chased than be the chaser.

Bears Target McKesson

i think its going to be a cash christmas
i did buy puts in jan and it took the mm forever to fill me at ask.

On Nov 18 10:28 AM singh wrote:

> what an anylysis tagthatstock
> GS needs to hire u

Bears Target McKesson

i noticed i posted GPN nov puts,,my intent was the GPN jan puts

PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Jan 15, 2010

Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
10.00 GPNMB.X N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0 26
12.50 GPNMV.X N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0 10
17.50 GPNMW.X N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0 20
20.00 GPNMD.X N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0 76
22.50 GPNMX.X 0.45 0.00 N/A N/A 0 80
25.00 GPNME.X N/A 0.00 N/A N/A 0 70
30.00 GPNMF.X 0.40 0.00 N/A N/A 15 99
35.00 GPNMG.X 0.20 0.00 N/A N/A 5 167
40.00 GPNMH.X 0.75 0.00 N/A N/A 20 730
45.00 GPNMI.X 0.75 0.00 N/A N/A 11 91
50.00 GPNMJ.X 3.00 0.00 N/A N/A 7 227
55.00 GPNMK.X 3.20 0.00 N/A N/A 4 21

Bears Target McKesson

as an alternative,,,,,,GPN $53.76 is greatly overpriced (its not a crash and burn to the pennies kind of stock,,but it is overpriced (x20+/- over MCK)


GPN data....company is NOT cheap,,its over valued!
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 2.30

jan puts are very attractive

PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, Nov 20, 2009

Strike Symbol Last Chg Bid Ask Vol Open Int
17.50 GPNWW.X 0.40 0.00 N/A N/A 0 10
25.00 GPNWE.X 0.35 0.00 N/A N/A 15 45
30.00 GPNWF.X 0.90 0.00 N/A N/A 16 78
35.00 GPNWG.X 0.15 0.00 N/A N/A 10 204
40.00 GPNWH.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 5 287
45.00 GPNWI.X 0.25 0.00 N/A N/A 10 173
50.00 GPNWJ.X 0.05 0.00 N/A N/A 10 151

again,,,,,i have NO position...but bears are better off targeting GPN instead of MCK.

Bears Target McKesson

i have no position in this stock, but it did show up on a scan to short,,,,but before i blindly start buying puts,,,,i look to see if there is a good enough reason. in the case of MCK there is no reason.

below are the keystats for the company,,,i really dont care what a company does as much as i want to see what the company is worth ,,,'can i buy out the company right here and now and bank a tiddy profit selling it to another',,,,,


so lets review some of the keystats:
Market Cap (intraday)5: 17.08B --what the traders value the co today

Enterprise Value (18-Nov-09)3: 16.38B ----todays fair value AND any debt issues

Revenue (ttm): 107.14B -----wow,,,for $16b i can buy a company making/pulling in 107b in revs,,,,NOW im really interested in the stock as a long,,,,,lets keep looking,,

Current Ratio (mrq): 1.214 ----well we know their debt is properly structured since their credit score is over 1.0

both cashflow data points are positve,,,that is really rare and cool! mgmt isnt asleep at the wheel.

profit margins are ok,,,i prefer higher,,but hey we are in a depression. (i can cut somewhere if i want higher margins,,but that isnt my goal right now as i am already stealing the company!

when i look over the company stats,,,they are worth at least 5x current $63 on face value alone. if you apply warren buffet math that would take the value of the company to over $500....(but lets not pump)

your 'put actions' are people attempting to steal the company,,,,they WANT the stock to come down to steal it,,,,,,bears need to come up with some real reasons to tank the stock.,,,,,,

bulls: enjoy the dips and buy MORE

again,,,no position.

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday)5: 17.08B
Enterprise Value (18-Nov-09)3: 16.38B
Trailing P/E (ttm, intraday): 20.58
Forward P/E (fye 31-Mar-11) 1: 13.39
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.25
Price/Sales (ttm): 0.16
Price/Book (mrq): 2.54
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)3: 0.15
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)3: 7.295


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31-Mar
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): 30-Sep-09


Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 0.79%
Operating Margin (ttm): 1.73%


Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 4.51%
Return on Equity (ttm): 13.01%


Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 107.14B
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 395.354
Qtrly Revenue Growth (yoy): 2.10%
Gross Profit (ttm): 5.38B
EBITDA (ttm): 2.25B
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 850.00M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 3.10
Qtrly Earnings Growth (yoy): -8.00%


Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 3.22B
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 11.997
Total Debt (mrq): 2.51B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A
Current Ratio (mrq): 1.214
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 25.073


Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 2.34B
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 1.84B


View Financials (provided by EDGAR Online):
Income Statement - Balance Sheet
Cash Flow


TRADING INFORMATION


Stock Price History
Beta: 0.87
52-Week Change3: 88.69%
S&P500 52-Week Change3: 29.24%
52-Week High (16-Nov-09)3: 64.98
52-Week Low (20-Nov-08)3: 28.27
50-Day Moving Average3: 60.77
200-Day Moving Average3: 51.27


Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 2,234,130
Average Volume (10 day)3: 1,642,090
Shares Outstanding5: 267.98M
Float: 267.31M
% Held by Insiders1: 0.24%
% Held by Institutions1: 87.00%
Shares Short (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 3.09M
Short Ratio (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 1.2
Short % of Float (as of 30-Oct-09)3: 1.50%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 3.38M


Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate4: 0.48
Forward Annual Dividend Yield4: 0.70%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3: 0.48
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3: 0.80%
5 Year Average Dividend Yield4: 0.70%
Payout Ratio4: 15%
Dividend Date3: N/A
Ex-Dividend Date4: 27-Nov-09
Last Split Factor (new per old)2: 2:1
Last Split Date3: 05-Jan-98

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

Mr. Gould, XOM CEO Tillerson was on CNBC (yeah i know garbage show:) he was asked about oil and pricing, he had a quite simple opinion (and it works against him so honesty can bite) he said basically: --->the world currency squabble has about $20-25 of bloat in the price of oil.

that makes perfect sence given all the guru's known to investing are also long oil and few were long oil in 2000.

$wtic hasnt been acting /charting in a normal fashion of late, i kept running across oil stocks to short,,, which didnt make any sense to me at the time,, so i just bought way out puts and 'forgot about it',,,,but now i do wonder if major players as noted in Mr. Davis' report here concerning ICE volume flow is now being unwound at the time of the year to do so with the most bidders possible. meaning GS or whoever may be OUT of the oil run up and ICE/CME are the benefactor either way because they only facilitate the transactions not hold as inventory the underlying products/commodites.

i am not a fan of GS,,,but Mr. Davis story had be thinking all day,,,,i took a gamble and bought GS near close, posted at 175.75 in real time on the net and i am long ICE,,,,,i will look for more puts in selected oil companies (i wont aim for xom because of the Ceo Tillerson honesty aspect)

my point to posting to you Mr Gould instead of Mr. Davis, is because if all of this comes to fruitation, you will be the sheeple with your conspiracy theory remark and Mr Davis will be more respected for his 'eyes wide open' thinking.


On Nov 11 07:56 PM Denis Gould wrote:

> I thought conspiracyplanet.com was blocked by our IT firewalls

The Global Oil Scam: 50 Times Bigger than Madoff

below is a news item from Nov 7, 2007,,,,,,,what i want to know is why/how/who is selling oil so cheap. would i be 'out of line' to suspect an entirely clear market exists on the outside of the digital market?

yesterday, some traders and i were talking about UNG vs $natgas....i said my guess is $natgas is priced in digital quote and the extremely low ratio with UNG is both 'costs and ACTUAL delivery,,,,...reflecting that quite possibly,,,natgas has 'lost demand for delivery' ,,,,,which can be explained with some electrial companies using natgas for energy (think a/c at a time everyone was laying off or cutting back on top of growth of solar.)

anyway,,, there is a disconnect and i am just throwing out some ideas.


UPDATE 1-Canadian heavy oil sells at $50 discount-Frontier
Wed Nov 7, 2007 3:30pm EST


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Bombers attack pipelines feeding Iraqi refineries

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(Adds byline details, quotes, analyst remark)

By Robert Campbell

NEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Independent oil refiner Frontier Oil (FTO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said Wednesday it has purchased Canadian heavy crude oil for January delivery at a massive $50 discount to WTI prices.

Frontier chief executive James Gibbs told analysts the company had done deals for 8,000 barrels per day of Canadian heavy crude at $50 under WTI. Gibbs said Frontier had been paying around WTI minus $45 for December Canadian heavy oil.

"We have bought crude for December delivery at $45.25 and $45.75 under WTI. I just found out (today) our first batches of Canadian crude were bought at $50 under," Gibbs said on a conference call following the company's quarterly results.

"We are going to run every single barrel of heavy Canadian crude we can get our hands on."

Gibbs said the large discounts were due to a surplus of oil in Alberta and limited pipeline space to move it to market.

"I'm reluctant to call it a glut -- but definitely an over-supply situation on the heavy side that has been emerging for a few months now or related to insufficient pipeline take-away capacity for heavy crude in Canada," said Martin King, energy commodities analyst at FirstEnergy Capital in Calgary.

Approximately 32 percent of the crude Frontier processed in its two refineries in the third quarter was heavy crude, Frontier said. The company expects to increase this proportion to 44 percent in the fourth quarter.

Frontier operates a 110,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery in El Dorado, Kansas and a 52,000 bpd plant in Cheyenne, Wyoming. (Additional reporting by Scott Haggett in Calgary; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Emerging Market Rally to Continue, ETF Gurus Agree

Jim Rogers and Nouriel Roubin seem more to be 2 faces of concern and neither actually concerned. i read your notes and all i see are too 'bulls/bears' on the same side of the same trade: both long and both 'believing in bubbles',,,,it would be justice just to wipe both of them out in short order,,,then work our way up the food chain.

magic math and extremely liberal ideas about what is real/not real in biz terms since the 60's hasnt gotten anyone much better in financial terms.....if the population is being fed garbage by the head gurus,,,then its only a matter of time everyone falls because of it.

Thursday Options Update: BRCD, WYN, CAR, TGT, CBST & KMB

concerning KMB,,, alot of the 2nd level 'back to basics' stocks have had alot of buying in a variety pack of calls across many months and strikes. i have been 'following the money when i see it'..

it appears someone may be trying to put together their own version of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A or BRK-B)

it is not impossible to think they could run or enter higher price ranges given their relatively medium size floats and and large revenues... after all IBM trades well above $100

i think what your radar picked up was the ever rare underpriced calls or someone who wrote the calls a long time ago wants them back.

Is the Fed Buying Stocks to Reflate the Banks?

i think your article is spot on.

ever so slowly i think j6p out of need or revenge will stop paying his mortgage. a fellow trader told an entire of board of stock traders his real job is a rewriter for mortgages,,,,and he hasnt paid his own mortgage in months and has no intention of doing so until 2011 because that is when some rule window closes,,,,,,until then he trades and collect profits that more than cover his mortgage completely.

currently the news is all about the job bubble. 90-80% employment,,,,,,lets say 20% unemployed....'we have too many people working' 'is working' in the markets,,,,,,,,for how long? i dunno. but will we work towards 80% unemployment? i dunno,,,,i guess we wait and see. for the past several years the media hated 95%+ employment. this leads me to the retail sales... at first the normal happened,,it got sluggish... but not as sluggish as expected...so i figure those not paying their mortgages are shopping with some of that 'new cash'...........

we are in interesting times for sure.....something bernanke could never learn in a book or studies of the great depression if the paradigm is completely dif this time around.......namely 'technology' to out smart/work around his helicopter ride via computer 'daytrading',,,,,more cash movement than he can manage----for now. i can hear it now, when he does raise rates,,,,,the bulls will say its because of growth......no its because of bubbles that he played a part in creating.

can you imagine every assett going up huge in price and still the demand falls off a cliff..... it would mess with the boys in school for years lol.

The Swine Flu daily

no position, the stock was noticed as a nonstop pump on daytrader sites. i really dont understand why people are so gullible about the H1N1 'pandemic',,,,,,,,,,,,... wash your hands and use some clorox to clean your area and avoid 'sick people' as usual.

too many people falling into the chicken little mindset-and the media is loving it.

im starting to worry that our mom's raised alot of pretty stupid people. if that is the case,,,,then we NEED a pandemic just to kill the spread of STUPID.